Final county population estimates released before 2010 Census (Portland, Joseph: house, university)

[tablemtn]

Portland State University's Population Research Center has released its "Preliminary Oregon Population Estimates" for July 2010:

Population Research Center - Main Page

This is the last estimate before the results of the 2010 Census become available, and it indicates slow but continuing population growth in Oregon at large - the July 2010 estimate is 3,844,195, which is an increase of 20,730 from the July 2009 estimate of 3,823,465 - or, in percentage terms, 0.5%.

Detailed results are still a few weeks away, but the preliminary estimates are broken down by county, and by the PRC's reckoning, 10 of Oregon's 36 counties lost population compared to last year: Baker (-0.1%); Coos (-0.2%); Curry (-0.8%, the steepest decline); Douglas (-0.1%); Grant (-0.2%); Josephine (-0.1%); Lake (-0.4%); Lincoln (-0.2%); Sherman (-0.3%); and Wallowa (-0.2%).

The biggest gainer in percentage terms and overall terms was Washington County, with an increase of 5,480 people (1%) to 532,620. Deschutes, Multnomah and Marion counties came next with 0.8% gains.

Last year's report seemed to indicate a slow increase in population among most cities and towns, even in counties that were declining overall, but a long-term decrease in the population of unincorporated areas.

We'll see if that trend has held steady - I'm betting it has. It seems as though a lot of people who live in the more remote areas of the state are "old timers," and their kids don't tend to stick around after growing up.

[puerco]

Glad to see it's slowing down. Maybe it will help the jobs catch up with the population.

[tablemtn]

Well, that's a complicated issue. It depends on the demographics of those who would have moved to Oregon, but have decided not to do so. Obviously, we can never really figure that out very well, but in general, if people without jobs have been "warned away" from Oregon, that would probably help, but if people with businesses or job creation potential have looked at Oregon but gone elsewhere, that would not be as beneficial.

There is one interesting collateral effect of all this - if the estimates are accurate, Oregon will probably miss out on a sixth seat in the US House of Representatives by a very narrow margin - around 12,000 people, in fact, out of a population of nearly 3.85 million. A margin of 0.3% or so.