Crime in Oregon (Portland, Eugene, Medford: real estate, renting, low crime)

[Deezus]

The only time I felt any danger in Seaside was at Seaside Point(south of the beach around Seaside Cove) and that was only because the local surfers didn't take kindly to me checking out their break. Not even surfing although I had my longboard in my car as I was thinking about surfing the cove that day. I guess surfers and localism are the same no matter if it's Palos Verdes or the Oregon Coast.

But really, I can't imagine Seaside having that much crime no matter what time of year it is. The entire Oregon Coast--except for the summer tourist season---is usually beyond sleepy. I believe Seaside has had all of 2 murders in the last 10 years. There is a small slightly sketchier local population that might be into meth or petty theft--just like in most small towns in Oregon--however much of Seaside consists is retirees, vacation rentals, second homes, and fairly average middle class locals.

There is probably more crime in my North Portland neighborhood in a month than in Seaside all year---yet I feel safe where I live in Portland.

[brubaker]

Yeah those numbers seemed off to me.

16.1 for every 100, 000 people (in a town of under 10,000) is some crazy amount of murders.
Something like 160 murders in one year...or one almost every other day.... Right?
Sounds like a syfy television series pilot right there. "Seaside" Tuesday Nights at 8PM Eastern.

[Cornerguy1]

Crime rates for small areas can become skewed by a small number of incidents. For example, an unusual 3 murders in a town of 10,000 has the same effect on the per capita rate as 30 additional murders in a city of 100,000.

Perhaps Seaside has a little blip in the crime occurrences?

[BirdInHand]

I have noticed other coastal towns have high crime rates for how peaceful they seem. Like Newport, Lincoln City to name a couple. Maybe tourism is a factor?

[brubaker]

Ahhh, I bet your right, BirdInHand.
Just like how some drug arrest rates are MUCH higher at national park towns.

But murder?

16.1 for every 100, 000 people (in a town of under 10,000) is some crazy amount of murders.
Something like 160 murders in one year...

Is this right?
I mean logically speaking?
Anyone know if the stats can be expanded in this way if we have, say, X per 100,000
... and the city has under 100,000 people?

[bluebird39]

I was wondering a similar thing when we moved to Pendleton. CD also gives it a very high crime rate, but when you look closer at the numbers, there was 1 murder per 2007. Then they say 6 per 100,000. I think they must take the population (here around 15,000), and multiply it by a ratio of 100,000 / 15,000 to come up with the "6" figure. Make sense? I'm no math expert, but that's what it looks like to me. So small towns like Seaside or Pendleton get really skewed crime figures. If there's a year that has one murder, even if it's committed by someone from out-of-town, say at the Round Up, or on the beach, then it gets "multiplied" to be able to compare it to other towns 100,000 +.

IMO, ignore the 100,000 numbers, and look at the "raw" data. We did and are happy with it here. Small towns in general don't have as much crime. Everyone knows everyone and it's much harder to get away with things. Believe me.... I've lived in a few other small towns. The way CD computes it, all it'd take is one "bad family" in a small town to really skew the statistics.

HTH

[backdrifter]

What bluebird is getting at is...

You cannot translate the crime rate into a per 1000 population figure and still have an accurate comparison between a small town of several thousand and a large city of several hundred thousand. The statistics don't paint an accurate picture.

[BirdInHand]

I agree that these numbers dont make sense. Otherwise Seaside would be in the news constantly.

[Deezus]

Originally Posted by brubaker

Ahhh, I bet your right, BirdInHand.
Just like how some drug arrest rates are MUCH higher at national park towns.

But murder?

Is this right?
I mean logically speaking?
Anyone know if the stats can be expanded in this way if we have, say, X per 100,000
... and the city has under 100,000 people?

If a town like Seaside has 6000 people and has 1 murder in a year, then to calculate the rate if it had 100,000 people(which about 16.6 times more of population), the murder rate would be around 16.6 murders/100,000.

So if an even smaller town of 600 people had 1 murder rate per year, then the murder rate would be wopping 166/100,000. Which is why it's difficult to compare small towns to larger urban areas in terms of crime statistics.

Seaside has had a total of about 2 murders in the last 10 years...It's hardly a hotbed of crime. You might have statistics where petty crimes are probably inflated in tourist towns as well--lots of minor theft or arrests related to drinking during holiday periods.

[brubaker]

Yeah, not sure what I was thinking with my original 'calculations'.
I guess for any place with under 100,000 people...the per capita statistics can get a bit screwy.