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Old 01-23-2013, 10:02 PM
 
1,313 posts, read 6,033,921 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PNW-type-gal View Post
While there are some very Republican-leaning counties, the rest of Oregon, outside the big cities, is still very mixed, and not as conservative as many people like to think.
A good point. Romney got 52% or less of the vote in seven of those "red" counties. If you cast a winner-take-all view of county makeup, that makes them look red, but it doesn't really work that way, so it's a misleading metric. The issue of "swing counties," therefore, swings both ways. In a one-person-one-vote reckoning, Romney only mustered 42.7% of the popular vote statewide last Nov. He did much better than that in other putative swing states.
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Old 01-23-2013, 10:58 PM
 
Location: Minnesota
5,147 posts, read 6,732,294 times
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If the Tea Party Republicans try to dictate the next candidate after Romney lost, I think "swing states" will swing away, not toward, their candidate. Even Karl Rove didn't think their favorite candidates had a chance of winning.
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Old 01-24-2013, 08:39 AM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
15,296 posts, read 14,796,899 times
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I think Oregon was solidly for Nixon's second term.
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Old 01-24-2013, 10:41 AM
 
735 posts, read 531,155 times
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I predict the redneck hillbillys will continue to be out voted.
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Old 01-24-2013, 10:59 AM
 
Location: Renton Washington
256 posts, read 485,924 times
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Very interesting forum. I think it will be swing because unless the GOP is on drugs they will elect a Huntsman or Christie type of person. I think unless the coast economy rebounds Lincoln and Tillamook I think go to the GOP. Also Wasco is close county. In 2012 Romney campaign was a total failure. Someone like Christie and Huntsman if they run a good campaign should take those counties. Also Benton MIGHT be semi competitive.

Fun forum thanks for posting
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Old 01-24-2013, 11:46 AM
 
Location: Portland Metro
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I would consider voting for Arnold Vinick, if he ever decides to run again. Arnold Vinick - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Old 01-24-2013, 12:03 PM
 
Location: the Beaver State
6,466 posts, read 12,226,882 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nurse Bishop View Post
I predict the redneck hillbillys will continue to be out voted.
Please don't be that way. Some of them are in my family. And are the reason why we don't discuss politics around the dinner table.
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Old 01-24-2013, 12:06 PM
 
Location: The beautiful Rogue Valley, Oregon
7,785 posts, read 16,688,794 times
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I think that in-state elections could swing one way or the other, depending on candidate - because any single candidate might not be a "100% my-party-always" person. (Not that I can think of any at the moment, but I allow for some hypothetical future candidate.)

On the national level, it is much harder for a candidate to escape the gravitational pull of his/her party. Look at John McCain, for instance. A lot of his positions changed - and fairly drastically - between 2000 and his failed run in 2008 - with his positions in 2008 being MUCH more closely aligned with his party's popular platform. ( Political positions of John McCain - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia ). To be elected, you need the support of a party, and it is not in the interests of the party to nominate someone who is considered a "maverick."
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Old 01-24-2013, 01:03 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nurse Bishop View Post
I predict the redneck hillbillys will continue to be out voted.
Historically, some of Oregon's most highly regarded governors were Republicans (Atiyeh, McCall), and the last legislature did an excellent job even though the House was evenly split between R and D. Nationally, the Republicans may reclaim their party from the extremists and become more populist. For that matter, a complete collapse of the monetary system is possible, which would shove the Democrats totally out of power.

In my lifetime, the state has voted for Nixon and Reagan for president. In recent years our senators have been split, one Republican and one Democrat.

As an independent voter who votes issues instead of ideologies, I think characterizing Republicans as "redneck hillbillys" is no more accurate than characterizing Democrats as "food stamp druggies." My father-in-law was an attorney. He used to say, "When the law is on your side, argue the law. When the facts are on your side, argue the facts. When neither one is on your side, call the other guy a liar and start a fight." I'd like to see less name calling and more reality in politics.
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Old 01-24-2013, 01:11 PM
 
9,965 posts, read 15,645,450 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by downnice View Post
Very interesting forum. I think it will be swing because unless the GOP is on drugs they will elect a Huntsman or Christie type of person. I think unless the coast economy rebounds Lincoln and Tillamook I think go to the GOP. Also Wasco is close county. In 2012 Romney campaign was a total failure. Someone like Christie and Huntsman if they run a good campaign should take those counties. Also Benton MIGHT be semi competitive.

Fun forum thanks for posting
Yeah, basically you have Portland and Eugene which are very liberal, you have Eastern Oregon and most of Southern Oregon that are very conservative--but then you have the middle-class suburbs of Portland full of a good number of Republicans and Democrats in Clackamas and Washington counties along with a similar mix in Salem and maybe Corvallis. Plus while some coastal counties have trended Democrat lately some of them could go either way in the future. But all in all, you've got to be competitive in getting votes from the big counties to really have a chance in Oregon. A moderate Republican like Christie still probably wouldn't get that many votes in Portland or Eugene, but could pick up votes in Clackamas or Washington or Yamhill Counties or the Salem area.


Quote:
Originally Posted by PNW-type-gal View Post
I think that in-state elections could swing one way or the other, depending on candidate - because any single candidate might not be a "100% my-party-always" person. (Not that I can think of any at the moment, but I allow for some hypothetical future candidate.)

On the national level, it is much harder for a candidate to escape the gravitational pull of his/her party. Look at John McCain, for instance. A lot of his positions changed - and fairly drastically - between 2000 and his failed run in 2008 - with his positions in 2008 being MUCH more closely aligned with his party's popular platform. ( Political positions of John McCain - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia ). To be elected, you need the support of a party, and it is not in the interests of the party to nominate someone who is considered a "maverick."
I think you're right on that level. I could see a moderate Republican winning the race for governor in this state, but the national GOP has swung out of favor with a lot of voters that in the past could possibly trend one way or the other.


Also, I'd like to say that it's nice to actually have a friendly and objective discussion about politics on CityData for once and not have this devolve into the usual namecalling and scapecoating that's common on some other forums(the politics and controversies board for example). Nice to keep it fairly classy...
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