Good people of Oregon. In the 2016 election do you think Oregon will become a Swing State? (Portland: how much, to live)

[Steve Pickering]

Originally Posted by Deezus

Considering the City of Portland doesn't even make up 15 percent of the population of Oregon, it's impossible for Portland to "outvote" the rest of Oregon. ... ...

Never say imposable because it happens every election. Combined with the potheads in Eugene they swing the vote blue. Oregon Elected Romney by a huge margin. Portland swung the Electoral college blue .... Again!

[Steve Pickering]

Originally Posted by Deezus

Oh, never mind...

Sorry, I missed your point.

[PNW-type-gal]

Originally Posted by Deezus

A moderate Republican like Christie still probably wouldn't get that many votes in Portland or Eugene, but could pick up votes in Clackamas or Washington or Yamhill Counties or the Salem area.

I don't think Christie is tamely going back into the fold anytime soon. He did a lot of cage rattling for his state, and some of those cages were highly placed on his own party. Maybe in 2020 he'd be back in the bosom of his party and considered electable, but not 2016.

I'm sorry to say that I have no favorites in either party and while I would welcome a candidate from outside the two-party-system, it won't be an unelectable Libertarian or Green or (insert other current fringe party here) candidate.

Originally Posted by Deezus

Oh, never mind...

There are always a couple. We have fewer than most.

[hamellr]

Originally Posted by PNW-type-gal

I don't think Christie is tamely going back into the fold anytime soon. He did a lot of cage rattling for his state, and some of those cages were highly placed on his own party. Maybe in 2020 he'd be back in the bosom of his party and considered electable, but not 2016.

One could hope that Christie becomes the face of the "remade" Republican Party. Whenever that happens. Maybe with their "Growth and Opportunity Project" they'll figure out finally that bat#*(@^!#(*^ insane isn't working and start swinging back towards the middle more. This would in turn force the Democrats a bit more to the left on a few issues (campaign reform, budgets, filibuster rules, etc.)

We'll see what happens in 2014 mid-term elections. If they can change by then, then Christie is a shoe in for 2016. Otherwise it's going to be another Democratic president if they keep going down the same road.

[Steve Pickering]

A lot can and will happen between now and 2016.

[PNW-type-gal]

Originally Posted by hamellr

One could hope that Christie becomes the face of the "remade" Republican Party. Whenever that happens. Maybe with their "Growth and Opportunity Project" they'll figure out finally that bat#*(@^!#(*^ insane isn't working and start swinging back towards the middle more. This would in turn force the Democrats a bit more to the left on a few issues (campaign reform, budgets, filibuster rules, etc.)

We'll see what happens in 2014 mid-term elections. If they can change by then, then Christie is a shoe in for 2016. Otherwise it's going to be another Democratic president if they keep going down the same road.

Lol, $2 says it will be a candidate from the south to appease the strong Southern contingency this time. Jeb or Rubio (although Florida is only marginally the south). Huckabee has said some vaguely anti-business things and the money part of the Republican Party will nix him.

State-wide, it'll be interesting to see what happens here in 2014. The only person I can see the Republicans pulling up is Greg Walden and I don't see him playing well in the cities. Like Kitzhaber or not, his biggest pros are name recognition ("that guy who said this state was ungovernable but got elected again anyway") and the fact that he's very much an outdoorsy Oregonian, which plays well EVERYWHERE in this state.

Added: Plus, why would Walden want to be Gov? Right now he is a House Representative from the east side of the Cascades. He is not likely to be unseated by a Dem, so the seat is his until he doesn't want it anymore. Governors only get 2 terms (well, consecutive terms) and have to actually fight for them. Walden got in in 1999, he's 55, and he could easily go on another 20 years where he is.

[Steve Pickering]

Burdick and Kotek may change this State to Red in one Legislative Session. Just give them half a chance.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by oregonwoodsmoke

Oregon is conservative, but we get outvoted by Portland. Unless we can con Washington state into moving the border a bit south and adopting Portland, nothing is going to change.

Is Portland not part of Oregon?

I don't get it.

[Steve Pickering]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

Is Portland not part of Oregon?

I don't get it.

Not really.

[PNW-type-gal]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

Is Portland not part of Oregon?

I don't get it.

As mentioned earlier in the thread, the larger city areas tend to vote much more heavily Democratic and the more rural areas tend to vote more Republican. Because the Portland metro area's population (2,226,000) is over half the entire state population (3,871,000), what Portland votes for the rest of the state tends to get.

The Portland MSA does include Vancouver, Wa, which, since it is in Washington and not Oregon, doesn't count as far as voting. But that only drops about 150,000 off the Portland MSA.