Good people of Oregon. In the 2016 election do you think Oregon will become a Swing State? (Portland: transplants, houses)

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by PNW-type-gal

As mentioned earlier in the thread, the larger city areas tend to vote much more heavily Democratic and the more rural areas tend to vote more Republican. Because the Portland metro area's population (2,226,000) is over half the entire state population (3,871,000), what Portland votes for the rest of the state tends to get.

The Portland MSA does include Vancouver, Wa, which, since it is in Washington and not Oregon, doesn't count as far as voting. But that only drops about 150,000 off the Portland MSA.

Ok, so Portland is part of Oregon. And it's population makes up a majority of the state's inhabitants.

Do Republicans think land should vote instead of people or something?

[Deezus]

Originally Posted by PNW-type-gal

As mentioned earlier in the thread, the larger city areas tend to vote much more heavily Democratic and the more rural areas tend to vote more Republican. Because the Portland metro area's population (2,226,000) is over half the entire state population (3,871,000), what Portland votes for the rest of the state tends to get.

The Portland MSA does include Vancouver, Wa, which, since it is in Washington and not Oregon, doesn't count as far as voting. But that only drops about 150,000 off the Portland MSA.

True, but actually the Portland MSA contains all of Clark County, Washington so that's about 430,000 people from that 2.2 million metro population figure.

[PNW-type-gal]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

Ok, so Portland is part of Oregon. And it's population makes up a majority of the state's inhabitants.

Do Republicans think land should vote instead of people or something?

The issues of a single large metro area aren't always applicable to the rest of the state. What works for Portland may not work in a small city or rural area. Take the idea of compost pickup, for example. I can't even get trash pickup at my house, much less recyclables or compost. Trying to deal with that on the state level, particularly as it is handled in Portland, is just not going to work. Or the issue of, say, widening roads for bicycle lanes. Recently the main highway out here was widened to allow shoulders wide enough for a break-down lane (also for the ability to have more room to dodge a head-on collision) and there was pushback from the state because it didn't include a bicycle lane. While it would be nice to have a bicycle lane - although it'd be taking your life in your hands on Hwy 97 along Upper Klamath Lake, not even Cycle Oregon was willing to tackle it - we just don't have the money, even with the use of state and federal highway dollars.

Another example, in reverse - much of the east side of Oregon is open range. What this means is that if a cow wanders off the range and into the road, YOU are responsible for paying the farmer for the value of the cow if you hit it and kill it. It also means that you must fence your own land to keep the livestock off. Over the years I have seen several outraged articles by city residents/former city residents who did not know or understand the law, because it is not applicable where they live or used to live. It isn't possible to patrol miles fence perimeter every day, looking for breaks.

So the general thing that non-Portland residents are unhappy with is that you can't shoehorn Portland issues over the entire state, but that is sometimes what happens. Often it is much more philosophical, over something like grazing private cattle on very-inexpensively-leased public land, or water for agriculture versus fish.

[PNW-type-gal]

Originally Posted by Deezus

True, but actually the Portland MSA contains all of Clark County, Washington so that's about 430,000 people from that 2.2 million metro population figure.

Right you are, I was thinking back a couple of decades to when the number only included City of Vancouver.

So:
Portland metro area's population (2,226,000 - 437,000) = 1,789,000 (46% of state population)

[Pretzelogik]

Originally Posted by downnice

Here is my take. In 2016 there will be a lot new swing states like Arizona, Texas, Georgia and possibly Oregon.

Thoughts?

Only if they start allowing people to pump their own gas.

[Beenhere4ever]

Originally Posted by hamellr

Please don't be that way. Some of them are in my family. And are the reason why we don't discuss politics around the dinner table.

Not even after a jug or two of moonshine? Now how much fun is that?

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by PNW-type-gal

The issues of a single large metro area aren't always applicable to the rest of the state. What works for Portland may not work in a small city or rural area. Take the idea of compost pickup, for example. I can't even get trash pickup at my house, much less recyclables or compost. Trying to deal with that on the state level, particularly as it is handled in Portland, is just not going to work. Or the issue of, say, widening roads for bicycle lanes. Recently the main highway out here was widened to allow shoulders wide enough for a break-down lane (also for the ability to have more room to dodge a head-on collision) and there was pushback from the state because it didn't include a bicycle lane. While it would be nice to have a bicycle lane - although it'd be taking your life in your hands on Hwy 97 along Upper Klamath Lake, not even Cycle Oregon was willing to tackle it - we just don't have the money, even with the use of state and federal highway dollars.

Another example, in reverse - much of the east side of Oregon is open range. What this means is that if a cow wanders off the range and into the road, YOU are responsible for paying the farmer for the value of the cow if you hit it and kill it. It also means that you must fence your own land to keep the livestock off. Over the years I have seen several outraged articles by city residents/former city residents who did not know or understand the law, because it is not applicable where they live or used to live. It isn't possible to patrol miles fence perimeter every day, looking for breaks.

So the general thing that non-Portland residents are unhappy with is that you can't shoehorn Portland issues over the entire state, but that is sometimes what happens. Often it is much more philosophical, over something like grazing private cattle on very-inexpensively-leased public land, or water for agriculture versus fish.

Kind of irrelevant. You live in the state of Oregon. There is a city called Portland in that State. Everyone elegible to vote in the state votes. Your team loses.

Sorry, but it works like that everywhere.

[PNW-type-gal]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

Kind of irrelevant. You live in the state of Oregon. There is a city called Portland in that State. Everyone elegible to vote in the state votes. Your team loses.

Sorry, but it works like that everywhere.

Which is exactly the attitude that causes the discontent (and anger, in some posters).

[jjpop]

I'm just guessing--and really, this is a supposition--that most Oregonians east of the Cascades have traveled more of the State than Oregonians west of the Cascades. I know Portlanders who seldom even get south of Wilsonville (except maybe to the outlet mall in Woodburn). Their view of the State is limited to the Portland Metro Area, the North Coast, Mt. Hood, and the areas in between. Maybe Sunriver every couple of years.

I would guess that Central, Eastern, and Southern Oregonians travel to the major metro areas in Western Oregon more than Western Oregonians travel to Klamath Falls or Pendleton or John Day. But that's just a guess.

My point here is that many Western Oregonians have no idea what it's like in the eastern 2/3rds of the State, and have a narrow view of what "Oregon" really is--a mostly rural state. Heck, many Portlanders have no idea what it's like in Albany or Roseburg even. I think that's part of the problem--some urban Oregonians think what's good for them is good for the entire state when their actual experience in "Oregon" is geographically limited.

[Steve Pickering]

The good in this is they are all in one place, so when the volcano blows the state will go red immediately.