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Old 01-23-2013, 12:11 PM
 
Location: Renton Washington
256 posts, read 483,446 times
Reputation: 179

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Here is my take. In 2016 there will be a lot new swing states like Arizona, Texas, Georgia and possibly Oregon.

Thoughts?
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Old 01-23-2013, 12:16 PM
 
Location: Dallas, Oregon & Sunsites Arizona
8,000 posts, read 15,422,949 times
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Lets talk about it again in 2015. You are assuming Portland will get hit with a meteor.
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Old 01-23-2013, 12:18 PM
 
Location: Renton Washington
256 posts, read 483,446 times
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I understand Portland will stay blue but the rest of the state?
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Old 01-23-2013, 12:20 PM
 
Location: Dallas, Oregon & Sunsites Arizona
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Oregon has always been conservitive. Eugene and Portland with the least land area always drag us down.
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Old 01-23-2013, 12:40 PM
 
Location: Renton Washington
256 posts, read 483,446 times
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Oregon Election Results

I was kind of surprised Lincoln went Blue but anyways I think Lincoln, Columbia and Clatsop will flip and that will making it even closer. Tillamook will be the decider.
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Old 01-23-2013, 12:51 PM
 
Location: North Idaho
26,050 posts, read 34,433,364 times
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Oregon is conservative, but we get outvoted by Portland. Unless we can con Washington state into moving the border a bit south and adopting Portland, nothing is going to change.
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Old 01-23-2013, 01:08 PM
 
Location: Southern Oregon
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Out of 36 counties in Oregon, 10 voted Democrat and 26 voted Republican, the 10 counties that went blue were all in the Northwestern part of Oregon.
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Old 01-23-2013, 01:36 PM
 
Location: Just outside of Portland
4,828 posts, read 6,454,408 times
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It's always an education to drive out of the Willamette Valley during election time and watch the election signs change from blue to red.
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Old 01-23-2013, 02:10 PM
 
9,965 posts, read 15,565,170 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oregonwoodsmoke View Post
Oregon is conservative, but we get outvoted by Portland. Unless we can con Washington state into moving the border a bit south and adopting Portland, nothing is going to change.
Considering the City of Portland doesn't even make up 15 percent of the population of Oregon, it's impossible for Portland to "outvote" the rest of Oregon. It helps swing it towards the Democratic side, but the surrounding suburban counties of Portland--including even Clackamas which is more conservative--have trended more towards voting Democratic in recent elections, along with Eugene, Corvallis, and much of the coast.

In fact of the ten most populous counties in Oregon outside of Portland and Multnomah County(Washington, Clackamas, Lane, Marion, Jackson, Deschutes, Linn, Douglas, Yahmhill, and Benton)--which along with Multnomah make up about 79 percent of the total state population--Obama won four counties(Washington, Clackamas, Lane, and Benton), received over 45% of the vote in four counties(Marion, Jackson, Deschutes, and Yamhill), and only lost two of them by a significant amount(Linn and Douglas Counties).

If cattle and antelope could vote, Eastern Oregon's highly Republican counties might make a difference, but in terms of population they're too sparse to really make an impact on the total outcome.

Last edited by Deezus; 01-23-2013 at 02:31 PM..
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Old 01-23-2013, 02:36 PM
 
Location: Minnesota
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Do swing states require a critical mass of swingers?
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