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Old 03-25-2017, 08:13 PM
 
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As it does every March, the Census Bureau has released its latest population estimates for every county in the nation.

While the US as a whole had an estimated population of 323,127,513 on July 1, 2016 - an 0.7% increase over 2015 - Oregon's estimate surged by 1.7% in that same time. And many formerly-declining counties in eastern Oregon are now estimated to be growing - only 3 of Oregon's 36 counties are estimated to have lost population. And those are 3 of the smallest (Gilliam, Grant, and Wheeler).

In fact, 4 Oregon counties made the national list of the 100-fastest-growing counties of more than 10,000, with Crook at #8.

Map:



By county (most to least-populated):

Rank - County (County seat) - Estimated population (percentage gain or loss). Numerical gain or loss

Totals: 4,093,465 (+1.7). +68,831

1. Multnomah (Portland) - 799,766 (+1.3%). +10,641
2. Washington (Hillsboro) - 582,779 (+1.7%). +10,020
3. Clackamas (Oregon City) - 408,062 (+1.7%). +6,912
4. Lane (Eugene) - 369,519 (+1.9%). +6,919
5. Marion (Salem) - 336,316 (+1.9%). +6,369
6. Jackson (Medford) - 216,527 (+1.4%). +2,993
7. Deschutes (Bend) - 181,307 (+3.6%). +6,365 (#26 in the nation)
8. Linn (Albany) - 122,849 (+2.0%). +2,405
9. Douglas (Roseburg) - 108,457 (+0.9%). +932
10. Yamhill (McMinville) - 105,035 (+2.5%). +2,530 (#100 in the nation)

11. Benton (Corvallis) - 89,385 (+1.3%). +1,114
12. Josephine (Grants Pass) - 85,904 (+1.4%). +1,162
13. Polk (Dallas) - 81,823 (+3.0%). +2,393 (#61 in the nation)
14. Umatilla (Pendleton) - 76,456 (+0.2%). +166
15. Klamath (Klamath Falls) - 66,443 (+0.8%). +535
16. Coos (Coquille) - 63,761 (+1.1%). +718
17. Columbia (Saint Helens) - 50,785 (+2.5%). +1,220
18. Lincoln (Newport) - 47,806 (+1.9%). +870
19. Clatsop (Astoria) - 38,632 (+2.2%). +837
20. Malheur (Vale) - 30,439 (+0.4%). +116

21. Union (La Grande) - 26,087 (+1.4%). +358
22. Wasco (The Dalles) - 26,115 (+1.4%). +362
23. Tillamook (Tillamook) - 26,143 (+2.1%). +530
24. Hood River (Hood River) - 23,232 (+0.8%). +195
25. Jefferson (Madras) - 23,080 (+2.1%). +471
26. Curry (Gold Beach) - 22,713 (+1.4%). +317
27. Crook (Prineville) - 22,570 (+4.3%). +923 (#8 in the nation)
28. Baker (Baker City) - 16,059 (+0.6%). +96
29. Morrow (Heppner) - 11,274 (+1.0%). +110
30. Lake (Lakeview) - 7,837 (+0.7%). +56

31. Harney (Burns) - 7,292 (+1.3%). +96
32. Grant (Canyon City) - 7,158 (-0.5%). -34
33. Wallowa (Enterprise) - 6,946 (+1.7%). +116
34. Gilliam (Condon) - 1,854 (-0.5%). -9
35. Sherman (Moro) - 1,710 (+1.9%). +32
36. Wheeler (Fossil) - 1,344 (-0.4%). -5

Metro area estimates are also up. They tend to be overly-broad, but provide an idea of population growth around a particular city. Here is the Census's growth estimates for Oregon's largest metro areas (over 50,000) since 2015:

1. Portland-Vancouver - 2,424,955 (+1.7%). +40,148
2. Salem - 418,139 (+2.1%). +8,762
3. Eugene-Springfield - 369,519 (+1.9%). +6,919
4. Medford - 216,527 (+1.4%). +2,993
5. Bend-Redmond - 181,307 (+3.6%). +6,365
6. Albany - 122,849 (+2.0%). +2,405
7. Roseburg - 108,457 (+0.9%). +932
8. Pendleton-Hermiston - 87,730 (+0.3%). +276
9. Corvallis - 89,385 (+1.3%). +1,114
10. Grants Pass - 85,904 (+1.4%). +1,162

11. Klamath Falls - 66,443 (+0.8%). +535
12. Coos Bay-North Bend - 63,761 (+1.1%). +718
13. Ontario - 53,465 (+0.6%). +305

Surrounding states and their counties which border Oregon:

Washington: 7,288,000 (+1.8%). +127,710

Clark (Vancouver) - 467,018 (+1.9%). +8,624
Benton (Prosser) - 193,686 (+1.8%). +3,349
Cowlitz (Kelso) - 105,160 (+1.7%). +1,782
Walla Walla (Walla Walla) - 60,340 (+0.3%). +191
Asotin (Asotin) - 22,306 (+1.0%). +217
Klickitat (Goldendale) - 21,301 (+1.5%). +308
Pacific (South Bend) - 21,249 (+1.7%). +361
Skamania (Stevenson) - 11,510 (+1.8%). +201
Wahkiakum (Cathlamet) - 4,139 (+2.9%). +117
Columbia (Dayton) - 3,938 (0.0%). 0
Garfield (Pomeroy) - 2,247 (+1.0%). +22

Idaho: 1,683,140 (+1.8%). +30,312

Canyon (Caldwell) - 211,698 (+2.2%). +4,612
Nez Perce (Lewiston) - 40,369 (+0.6%). +223
Payette (Payette) - 23,026 (+0.8%). +189
Idaho (Grangeville) - 16,156 (-0.6%). -104
Owyhee (Murphy) - 11,389 (+0.7%). +84
Washington (Weiser) - 10,172 (+2.1%). +205
Adams (Council) - 3,900 (+1.6%). +61

California: 39,250,017 (+0.7%). +256,077

Siskiyou (Yreka) - 43,603 (+0.3%). +120
Del Norte (Crescent City) - 27,540 (+0.9%). +239
Modoc (Alturas) - 8,7955 (-1.5%). -138

Nevada: 2,940,058 (+2.0%). +56,300

Washoe (Reno) - 453,616 (+1.8%). +8,156
Elko (Elko) - 52,168 (+0.7%). +372
Humboldt (Winnemucca) - 16,842 (-0.9%). -160
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Old 03-26-2017, 09:03 AM
 
Location: California
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Medford is greatly increasing high density housing to meet the demand, but, at what expense?
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Old 03-26-2017, 10:21 AM
 
Location: Bend OR
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i find it amusing that Prineville is the highest percentage, #8 in the nation for fast growth, but its only +935 people.
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Old 03-26-2017, 12:08 PM
 
Location: The beautiful Rogue Valley, Oregon
7,785 posts, read 17,065,002 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Heidi60 View Post
Medford is greatly increasing high density housing to meet the demand, but, at what expense?
Given the extremely low vacancy rate, apartments and townhouse construction is just about the only way to reduce vacancy rates without putting in massive new developments - the fact that apartments are an attractive investment vehicle for big money helps (tax breaks, depreciation schedules, etc). Plus we don't have an economy where the average paycheck can afford the average house and lending standards have tightened considerably.

Plus the few home builders doing developments concentrate on the higher end (well above the average house price, in many case 2x or 3x). The only opportunity to get semi-affordable housing is in apartments.
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Old 03-26-2017, 02:19 PM
 
Location: California
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Stewart Meadows Village is proposing to increase the height (4 stories) of its apartments and make 281 units. Another development near Barnett and N. Phoenix Rd. is being built next to a wetlands and there are several others along the eastern city limits. Renters tend to be transient so who will benefit from so much high density growth, other than the developers? For me, it isn't only about housing but their impact on quality of life. There is already Sec. 8 housing and senior housing available for those who are struggling. Can the limited, low paying jobs in Medford support the proposed developments which will probably be high rent?
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Old 03-26-2017, 03:11 PM
 
Location: The beautiful Rogue Valley, Oregon
7,785 posts, read 17,065,002 times
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The % of people who own homes is dropping back to the standard post-WW2 levels - about 63% - after hitting (probably unsustainable) all-time highs in the run-up to the housing bubble bust. And it is really falling for the below-45-yo crowd.

Several generations had home ownership pitched as an investment that always increases in value and an inflation hedge, more secure than stocks or any other investment. I don't think the younger generations buy in to this.

According to the US Census, in 2016:
% of people who own homes:
Over 65: 85% (down 2%)
55-64: 75% (down 4% from pre-bust)
45-54: 68% (down 10% from pre-bust)
34-44: 58% (down 12% from pre-bust)
under 34: 30% (down 15% from pre-bust)

At this point renters rather than owners look like the future, expect more renters and hence more apartments. While some people might say that nothing should change, no one (else) should move here and things should stay as they are, that isn't happening. Not building more apartments simply increases the upward pressure on home prices and rents. Since Oregon has boundaries and tries to reign in sprawl (a good thing, IMO) density and what passes locally for a high-rise is probably the way to go. I don't think Medford will ever develop a dense intercity core (there isn't much city to have an intercity), but taller denser apartment complexes are pretty likely the future.

Do you have any idea what the waiting list for Section 8 / HUD and reduced-price senior housing is? Pretty sure even the wait lists for Section 8 are closed in many places and that the recipients are drawn by lottery. Some of senior reduced-priced apartments in Medford have a 5 year wait list (I was just helping a friend's 75-y-o father find suitable housing that wasn't a $3,500-a-month assisted living).
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Old 03-26-2017, 05:38 PM
 
195 posts, read 166,228 times
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Building new houses just invites more people here and causes even more people to move here. I know this view is not very popular here but maybe we need to control our housing supply so that our population growth can be in check.

By the way, it's interesting how Columbia county grew the fastest in all of PDX area. The county used to be a bunch of small towns riddled with meth usage but it's been recovering nicely in the last 5 years or so.
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Old 03-26-2017, 06:27 PM
 
Location: Oregon Coast
9,882 posts, read 4,476,091 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PNW-type-gal View Post
The % of people who own homes is dropping back to the standard post-WW2 levels - about 63% - after hitting (probably unsustainable) all-time highs in the run-up to the housing bubble bust.
Actually post-WW2 level was about 53%. So it still has a ways to go to get there. But I have no doubt it will get there. Since the 1980s the political ideology in the US has been that the rich are too poor, and everybody else is too rich. That ideology is not good for home ownership.

As for this population boom in Oregon. It's not going to be good. It's not just home prices that will skyrocket. Expect rents all over Oregon to follow the lead of Portland. I really feel sorry for future generations.
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Old 03-27-2017, 02:25 AM
 
23 posts, read 22,613 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oregon911 View Post
Building new houses just invites more people here and causes even more people to move here. I know this view is not very popular here but maybe we need to control our housing supply so that our population growth can be in check.

By the way, it's interesting how Columbia county grew the fastest in all of PDX area. The county used to be a bunch of small towns riddled with meth usage but it's been recovering nicely in the last 5 years or so.
You really can't control people from coming here. That's why Columbia County grew so much. People are getting priced out and looking farther outside the metro area for cheaper housing.
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Old 03-27-2017, 10:03 AM
 
Location: California
5,731 posts, read 6,489,999 times
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My concern is that the growth needs to managed to protect wetlands and eye sore high rises. Individual homeowners or condo owners may have on going water problems when construction is done next to wetland, but as always, buyer beware.


Renting is fine for those who are just getting started or can no longer take care of a home, but when the family begins to grow many want to have a yard and good schools for their children so I don't think that home ownership will go away. The new apartments or condos will be expensive with HOA fees on top of that so people. There is a lot to say for stable neighborhoods where you can get to know your neighbors, especially with the increasing crime in Medford.

Some senior housing may have a wait list, I really don't know, but I do know a lady who moved into the ones in SE Medford after just a short time. She gets many tax benefits and her rent is only a few hundred a month.
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