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I am considering moving my independent family back to the coast. We moved to the Midwest after the great recession washed us away. We owned a home on Camano Island WA, near the San Juan Islands until ten years ago, and now we are eyeing two towns for permanent relocation, Coos Bay OR and Aberdeen WA. We have since recovered financially and professionally, so that now I work online from anywhere I choose, my wife is my homemaker and my pre-teen son is homeschooled. We all prefer this lifestyle over the alternatives for work, roles and school, because we have tried them all, weighed the options and have found the hands-down winner for us.
Why? We like the static climate, the rain (yeah, we LIKE rain), the ocean, the clean air, the slow pace of life, the old timers, the absence of incessant noise from a 75-mph interstate freeway and the choice to walk to the store rather than needing a car to go anywhere. These two towns have made the short list because they are about an hour away from major attractions (Costco, I-5, big hospitals, government, mountains (snow), etc) and because we know how the next recession will carry housing prices down where we want them, to pay cash for a nice, finished house at about a third of the current high price. In short, we know (now) how to play the foreclosure game, not to play flip, but to own for good. We have visited both towns, among others, in good times and bad. As 2020 is supposedly "good times" (according to the housing and stock market, anyway), we know all about recession and what it does to both places and people. It's no secret that bored people do stupid things to themselves and their homes. That is true anywhere, big town or little.
We have read the board posts on both cities. They are similar in most respects, although the WA tax base comes from sales taxes and OR gets theirs from income taxes. It's almost a wash, financially, so taxes are not a factor. We see the consensus that people are polarized, either loving it or hating it. Nobody loves living next door to druggies (except other druggies, preferably using the same drugs) or bandits (that's why we are prudent, lock our doors, carry concealed and practice at the firing range 2x per month, even in the big city), but the old-timers know not every neighborhood in town needs a defensive posture. We know that good jobs (or any job, for those who know about over-qualification) cannot be bought in the depth of hard economic times, and so local employment is not a factor. There are good Churches, a Post Office, basic shopping and an eternal tsunami threat in both towns, so those are not factors, either.
Most comments on the board about Coos Bay and Aberdeen were posted during the last recession, more about the times than about the towns themselves. So, as 90% of related posts are more than five years old, I welcome you to post something new, whether that means your outlook has changed or it remains steadfast, several years later now. I open the floor to you.
Last edited by WestCoastBoundAgain; 01-18-2020 at 06:57 AM..
Whichever you prefer. I suspect that you are a bit optimistic thinking you will buy for 30% of the current price, but who really knows. Save up your cash and maybe you will get a bargain.
Whichever you prefer. I suspect that you are a bit optimistic thinking you will buy for 30% of the current price, but who really knows. Save up your cash and maybe you will get a bargain.
That's what happened last time around. Foreclosures during the great recession went for cash at 30%, during the 90s recession at 40%. Recession severity is unpredictable; recession events are dependable parts of the cycle. Depending on how one views jobs data and market value, we could be in for a hiccup or a real doozie. Either way, we are much overdue now. Worst case, even if the next recession is held off longer, we can buy a mortgage in either town with 50% down and pay it off it five years. Like you said, we will find out when we get there.
Last edited by WestCoastBoundAgain; 01-18-2020 at 09:14 AM..
That's what happened last time around. Foreclosures during the great recession went for cash at 30%, during the 90s recession at 40%. Recession severity is unpredictable; recession events are dependable parts of the cycle. Depending on how one views jobs data and market value, we could be in for a hiccup or a real doozie. Either way, we are much overdue now. Worst case, even if the next recession is held off longer, we can buy a mortgage in either town with 50% down and pay it off it five years. Like you said, we will find out when we get there.
I am in a similar situation. I live in the upper mid west and plan on moving to Oregon. I am waiting for a recession to buy. One of the places(condos) we are looking at was selling for $35K during the last recession, really wish we would have bought then. A few years ago that price had gone up to $100K. Now the same place is selling in the $150K range.
They are reasonably comparable areas. The schools are fairly comparable with maybe a slight tilt towards the Coos Bay schools because that community is I think less economically depressed. I know you say you are homeschooling your pre-teen but that may change as they approach HS age. I know various people who homeschooled when their kids were young and then switched to public schools when they became surly teens who wanted more independence. It happens. Both school districts are kind of run down and struggling so there really isn't that much difference. I think Coos Bay more recently passed a bond. But on the other hand school funding is more stable and better supported by the state in WA so maybe it's a wash.
It has been a while since I have been through the Grays Harbor area. I've more recently been through Coos Bay. If I had to pick I would lean towards Coos Bay which I think is a prettier area with nicer housing stock and a nicer downtown area. I also think the Coos Bay area has more long-term potential upside economcially. It is one of the only deep water ports between Astoria and San Francisco so there is potential, especially if rail connections to the valley improve. Aberdeen is geographically sitting next to Puget Sound which has some of the best deep water harbors on the planet. So it will always be a backwater. No one, for example is going to ever ship things to Olympia via Aberdeen when the Port of Tacoma is right next door.
I do think you may never see the sort of 66% crash in housing prices that you are looking for. Especially in OR. Too many retirees with stable fixed incomes that are independent of the local economy. And it isn't at all comparable to places like Arizona or Nevada that got massively overbuilt during the early 2000s bubble and then crashed. Due to the shortage of land and labor there really isn't much new construction happening at all on the Oregon Coast and there is more of a housing shortage than anything else. Normal ups and downs, yes. Especially if interest rates go way back up and lending gets tighter. So maybe a 20-25% downturn in prices during the next recession? I could see that. But not 2/3 of the value disappearing and houses going for 1/3 of their previous value. I just don't see that and if that is what you are waiting for you may well be disappointed.
If you want to move to the coast and make a life. Figure out how to do it and just do it. Don't wait for a housing crash that may never happen.
Frankly, I wouldn't settle my family in either town because of the risk of the Cascadia Fault giving way.
Aberdeen is closer to urban centers so if you could find a home about 50 miles east, off the Olympic Highway, you should have safety and access.
I thought it had been discussed that if someone and their property is out of the tsunami danger zone then it shouldn't be an issue? What "risk" specifically are you referring to? I don't see how these coastal areas are any more vulnerable to damage than Portland and the Willamette Valley are, other than the fact that they would have some tsunami damage. If you live in an elevated area away from the immediate water you should be safe.
I am considering moving my independent family back to the coast. We moved to the Midwest after the great recession washed us away. We owned a home on Camano Island WA, near the San Juan Islands until ten years ago, and now we are eyeing two towns for permanent relocation, Coos Bay OR and Aberdeen WA. We have since recovered financially and professionally, so that now I work online from anywhere I choose, my wife is my homemaker and my pre-teen son is homeschooled. We all prefer this lifestyle over the alternatives for work, roles and school, because we have tried them all, weighed the options and have found the hands-down winner for us.
Why? We like the static climate, the rain (yeah, we LIKE rain), the ocean, the clean air, the slow pace of life, the old timers, the absence of incessant noise from a 75-mph interstate freeway and the choice to walk to the store rather than needing a car to go anywhere. These two towns have made the short list because they are about an hour away from major attractions (Costco, I-5, big hospitals, government, mountains (snow), etc) and because we know how the next recession will carry housing prices down where we want them, to pay cash for a nice, finished house at about a third of the current high price. In short, we know (now) how to play the foreclosure game, not to play flip, but to own for good. We have visited both towns, among others, in good times and bad. As 2020 is supposedly "good times" (according to the housing and stock market, anyway), we know all about recession and what it does to both places and people. It's no secret that bored people do stupid things to themselves and their homes. That is true anywhere, big town or little.
We have read the board posts on both cities. They are similar in most respects, although the WA tax base comes from sales taxes and OR gets theirs from income taxes. It's almost a wash, financially, so taxes are not a factor. We see the consensus that people are polarized, either loving it or hating it. Nobody loves living next door to druggies (except other druggies, preferably using the same drugs) or bandits (that's why we are prudent, lock our doors, carry concealed and practice at the firing range 2x per month, even in the big city), but the old-timers know not every neighborhood in town needs a defensive posture. We know that good jobs (or any job, for those who know about over-qualification) cannot be bought in the depth of hard economic times, and so local employment is not a factor. There are good Churches, a Post Office, basic shopping and an eternal tsunami threat in both towns, so those are not factors, either.
Most comments on the board about Coos Bay and Aberdeen were posted during the last recession, more about the times than about the towns themselves. So, as 90% of related posts are more than five years old, I welcome you to post something new, whether that means your outlook has changed or it remains steadfast, several years later now. I open the floor to you.
Coos Bay is not one hour from Costco. More like two hours. The nearest mountains with any substantial snow are about three or four hours away. I suggest you visit and drive between all of these points to get an idea of the geography. Coos Bay is not a convenient location.
Last edited by Cloudy Dayz; 01-18-2020 at 07:16 PM..
I do think you may never see the sort of 66% crash in housing prices that you are looking for. Especially in OR. Too many retirees with stable fixed incomes that are independent of the local economy. And it isn't at all comparable to places like Arizona or Nevada that got massively overbuilt during the early 2000s bubble and then crashed. Due to the shortage of land and labor there really isn't much new construction happening at all on the Oregon Coast and there is more of a housing shortage than anything else. Normal ups and downs, yes. Especially if interest rates go way back up and lending gets tighter. So maybe a 20-25% downturn in prices during the next recession? I could see that. But not 2/3 of the value disappearing and houses going for 1/3 of their previous value. I just don't see that and if that is what you are waiting for you may well be disappointed.
If you want to move to the coast and make a life. Figure out how to do it and just do it. Don't wait for a housing crash that may never happen.
We already have seen 70% off on the WA coast, 50% off on the OR coast. Cash is king in foreclosure. Again, who's to say it cannot happen again? I won't make such a bet, but we have made every preparation to take advantage of the banks when the time comes. And it always does.
Coos Bay is not one hour from Costco. More like two hours. The nearest mountains with any substantial snow are about three or four hours away. I suggest you visit and drive between all of these points to get an idea of the geography. Coos Bay is not a convenient location.
You're right, 87 miles. 56 miles from Aberdeen. Not a factor.
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