Housing Market in a year and half/2 years? (Orlando, Cleveland: sale, rent)

[housebot]

Originally Posted by JonNA234

Europe is indeed in a recession. I actually spend lots of time in London on business, very few are looking to Florida. The hurricanes and crime have scared them. Also, many warm places closer to home are developing great second home communities for them. There is a forum called British Expats and there is a long thread on it about FL, not one person is considering it as a location to purchase a home, not one. The poster also said that the ones that come would not be looking for all the larger 3 to 5 bedroom homes glutting the market. That is true. As far as legislation capping foreclosures, that will not do a thing. In fact, all of the proposals are things like loosening bankruptcy laws and shielding banks from lawsuits. The only relief for consumers being talked about are moratoriums during which the bank tries to work things out with the home debtor. The 5 year cap is only on certain types of subprime loans and would only freeze interest rates. But many are still over the edge with the current rates they have. And the majority the resets are not going to be covered as they are not in the criteria of subprime, those rates will still rise, and many of those borrowers are also on the edge. In the end, it is not going to do much at all, and may even make things worse. Housing prices are far too high, far out of line with rents, and have a long way to fall. No amount of spin or wishing will change that.

Just to say firstly this is a fantastic post-I am also from the UK (will be returning soon) presently in Australia where interest rates are at a staggering 7 percent to rise again in March and possible May- Australian property is on the rise-I have bought land on Russell Island (600 meter squared plot) a beautiful tropical island off the coast of Brisbane for $65,000 australian ($60,386.53 USD, 30,711.12 GBP)

See:[url=http://www.russellisland.com.au/index.html]Russell Island - South East Queensland[/url]

I am interested in "world" investment-Florida is on my list of 4. These are:

1. Teneriffe
2. Dubai
3. Florida
4. Carribbean

NOT SPAIN(mainland)-worried Teneriffe will be like the mainland?

This order as closest to the UK-

BUT I am also worried about crime, as the US appears quite violent, what with shootings at high schools etc-however I did grow up in California but this was in the 60's and my sister is American. Is it safe for my family?

What is the costs involved in buying housing in Florida? u did mention taxes.....

Back to it: With property negative equity can happen as it did in the 90's BUT if u buy and hold the property for lets say 5-10 years then it WILL turn around it has to due to shortage in housing (like the UK)- If it does drop by 34% the houses will be VERY cheap compared to the pound

[hiknapster]

There isn't a housing shortage. Quite the opposite, and a big part of the problem.

[housebot]

Originally Posted by hiknapster

There isn't a housing shortage. Quite the opposite, and a big part of the problem.

Different to UK-so why would the market recover then?

[cflfan]

I guess we will have to agree to disagree. I thought i would attatch this article for all those who are interesten in the European recession entitles "Europe not fearful of US recession" at Boston.com published on Jan 21 2008

Europe not fearful of US recession - Boston.com (http://www.boston.com/news/world/europe/articles/2008/01/21/europe_not_fearful_of_us_recession/ - broken link)

[right-here-i-say]

Originally Posted by LingLing

Does this mean people in Detroit and Cleveland should buy? I doubt the data is meaningful.

No, it just means I wouldn't buy a house in the place where a major news organization says will be the WORST for depreciation in the next 5 years.

[Joe S]

I agree we are more than 6 months or a year or more before buyers enter this market again. I’ m a realtor also that made a living on people relocating to Orlando from New York, New Jersey and New England. I have plenty of buyers who can’t do anything until they sell their homes up north. I think the New York, New England and the Mid-west markets will recover first. When we see these markets start to improve then Central Florida is not to far behind and this maybe the time that we have hit bottom in Central Florida and its time to buy.
Again this is only my opinion based on logic and past trends I’ve seen when the Northern and Midwest markets are good Florida seems to benefit also.

[carebear2325]

You all have posted some great info to think about. Hopefully it helps others that are wondering when/if to make the leap as well.

Originally Posted by JonNA234

There is a forum called British Expats and there is a long thread on it about FL, not one person is considering it as a location to purchase a home, not one.

One report that I saw, and it was actually on TV news so I don't have a link (and can't even remember who reported it to find it on the site) was saying that Europeans are ready to pounce on property not for their own vacation homes, but to turn around and sell it back to us when we get our collective financial house in order.

The general idea was, I think, that right now with our dollar low and lots of desperate people wanting to get out of their mortgages before foreclosure (and taking the losses) they can find some bargains. I think the low value of the dollar was key since they essentially get as much as half off. So instead of waiting for prices to drop and risk the dollar going back up, they're starting to look at buying in the near future.

[TheChad]

I am similar to you in the fact that I will be looking to purchase a home towards the end of 2009. At first, I was a little bit worried because of all the media attention surrounding the buyer's market environment and thought that I would "miss the boat" on a good deal. After doing reasearch, here are a few reasons why I think that time frame is actually looking pretty good:

1. Orlando's wage to housing prices are still way out of whack. Housing prices here have increased due to four main factors. 1. The migration of people from up north to Florida to take advantage of the lower priced housing. 2. The availability of low interest rate, sub-prime lending for anyone and everyone who wanted to purchase a home 3. Speculators coming in and purchasing up all kinds of housing inventory to take advantage of our growing economy. This includes all the the condo conversions which ultimately drove up demand. 4. With more and more families having dual income, people had more money to be able to spend on a home. Couple that with the increased demand identified before and you have a huge upward push on prices.

With the economic environment we are currently seeing, most of these factors will be taken out of the picture for a while. For example:

As was stated earlier, people up north are waiting to sell their homes before they come down to move to Orlando. That being said, we will have to wait until their housing market improves before we see additional migration. Additionally, due to the interest rate cuts we have seen recently, coupled with increasing costs of consumer goods, the US will experience a jump in inflation, which will drive up the mortgage rates offered by lenders, if this on top of the tightening of the reigns that we have been experiencing in terms of who is able to qualify for a loan, demand is going to stay low for a while. As was stated before, in the CNN article, rent is low as compared to the comparable price to own a home, but I think due to how fast Orlando jobs are growing, this will create an environment where housing prices won't come all the way down, but they will come down a little bit more while rent will increase and they will meet somewhere in the middle.

We still have dual income families, but that won't keep the prices as high as they are. That being said, the average family in Orlando is making between $45,000 and $50,000 p/year which, as you have stated, only allows them to purchase a home for around $150,000. Until housing prices drop and wages are increased to a point of equilibrium, I don't think we will see the end of the drop in the Orlando market. I am not an accomplished economist, but I expect to see drops of another 10% - 15% or so before this is tolerable for most families living here and I don't think that we will see all of it by the end of this year as there will still be many foreclosures over the next 18 months, further increasing the supply.

I know it was long, but those are my thoughts on the market and I hope that this helps a little.

Best,
TheChad

[tigertowild]

Looking to move their! Is their any good places to rent? What about schools. How are they down their?

[tigertowild]

Originally Posted by tigertowild

Looking to move their! Is their any good places to rent? What about schools. How are they down their?