PA population loss and retention - merged threads (York, California: job openings, universities)

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by jate88

Maybe if Pennsylvania's population doesn't drop below what it was in 2010 we'll be fine.

PA's population is extremely unlikely to drop below 2010 levels, but it's also unlikely to ever "boom" again, either.

There's a lot of complexity to population numbers that many people like to oversimplify or mold into their political worldview (i.e., blaming taxes, business environment blah blah blah).

The fact of the matter is that fundamental demographics play THE most important role, and because Pennsylvania is still notably older and whiter than the rest of the US, these are both major reasons for relative stagnation. Essentially, PA's birthrate is almost even with its deathrate, and international net migration can now explain ALL of Pennsylvania's growth these days.

I've also said this before, but it bears repeating that the southeastern quadrant of the state (everything east of the Alleghenies and south of the Pocono foothills) is essentially pulling away from the rest of the state economically (outside of Allegheny County and the State College area), which means far too much of the state is struggling and being left behind.

The issue of rural and small city stagnation and decline certainly isn't unique to Pennsylvania, and there's no easy answer about how to "jumpstart" areas like Erie, Johnstown or Altoona, but trying to fend off the inevitability of globalization obviously isn't going to do anyone any favors.

[jate88]

Maybe the York-Harrisburg-Lebanon metropolitan statistical area can join Franklin county in the Washington-Baltimore metropolitan statistical area and that can kick start the economy in that region. Not sure what Lancaster county is doing. Wikipedia has a picture of Lancaster on their page for the York-Harrisburg-Lebanon metropolitan statistical area despite it not being part of the region.

[Craziaskowboi]

Originally Posted by jate88

I thought I remembered reading somewhere that all the states except West Virginia gained in population when they did the last census and the only reason states are losing representatives is because other state populations are growing at a faster rate.

No, every state except Michigan gained population during the 2000s. Pennsylvania gained more than 400,000 people that decade.

Originally Posted by jate88

Maybe if Pennsylvania's population doesn't drop below what it was in 2010 we'll be fine.

If Pennsylvania didn't lose population during the 1980s, then I doubt it ever will in any decade. The 1980s were much worse for Pennsylvania than this decade has been.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by jate88

Maybe if Pennsylvania's population doesn't drop below what it was in 2010 we'll be fine.

Either way we'll likely be fine, as there's little difference besides bragging rights between losing a fraction of a percent or gaining a fraction of a percent.

Note that no matter what Pennsylvania will be losing another congressional district after the 2020 census - likely a rural Republican district in the T or Southwestern Pennsylvania due to where population is declining the fastest.

[Oakland21550]

Most of Pennsylvania has an economic problem. Jobs, innovation, businesses expansion and business startups have avoided most of the state other than east central and the southeastern part of of the state. This has led to the more deaths than births phenomenon. Those that put a spin on it try to say it is due to the old population, which is true. However, it also means that immigrants and residents moving around other states aren't choosing Pennsylvania.

So what is the answer to the million dollar question is why aren't outsiders choosing Pennsylvania? What is it doing wrong that young residents have to go to neighborhing states to find work?

Every state bordering Pennsylvania other than West Virginia seem to have more jobs and opportunities. I grew up in the Pittsburgh area and each time I return the city seems to be stagnant with less younger people. Most people I know live in the D.C. Metro ( Maryland, Virginia), North Carolina, Florida , Texas or the closest nearby city of Columbus Ohio.

The state colleges, cities and municipalities throughout the state are suffering. All that's left is the baby boomers and those collecting pensions. After that who is going to come to these little cities and towns and keep them afloat? I think a lot of ghost towns throughout the state need to be returned to wilderness. They were founded on coal and steel and now they no longer serve a purpose.

I expect all areas outside of philly to get worse before they get better.

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by Oakland21550

Most of Pennsylvania has an economic problem. Jobs, innovation, businesses expansion and business startups have avoided most of the state other than east central and the southeastern part of of the state. This has led to the more deaths than births phenomenon. Those that put a spin on it try to say it is due to the old population, which is true. However, it also means that immigrants and residents moving around other states aren't choosing Pennsylvania.

There's no doubt that much of rural PA simply needs to develop much more of a competitive advantage (and selling out its natural resources only goes so far, and often leaves these areas with an economic bust, in addition to liability for environmental degradation, but I digress.)

To keep the facts straight though, Pennsylvania still is growing in terms of natural increase (only Maine and West Virginia are currently experiencing more deaths than births), but among the rest of the US, PA has the second lowest natural increase rate (behind New Hampshire).

Also, immigration to PA actually has picked up in recent years, and net international migration is one area that is absolutely keeping the state afloat (much like places like New York and New Jersey). It's net international migration rate ties for 13th, which is a pretty good place to be in.

PA's negative domestic net migration rate is also in line with what would be expected for a northern, cold-climate state (and is MUCH better than many other states, like NY, NJ, IL, and CT), but it clearly is a drag on growth as well.

Again, it's clear that immigration is Pennsylvania's life line right now, and because its birth rate is unlikely to increase (declining birth rates are a GLOBAL trend), policies that encourage and welcome new populations are paramount for the economy.

(This is all based on the most recent Census estimates: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2...ate-total.html)

[jate88]

Originally Posted by Duderino

There's no doubt that much of rural PA simply needs to develop much more of a competitive advantage (and selling out its natural resources only goes so far, and often leaves these areas with an economic bust, in addition to liability for environmental degradation, but I digress.)

I think it needs to switch from a manufacturing economy to a service, information, and technology economy like the economy as a whole is doing.

[Oakland21550]

Originally Posted by Duderino

There's no doubt that much of rural PA simply needs to develop much more of a competitive advantage (and selling out its natural resources only goes so far, and often leaves these areas with an economic bust, in addition to liability for environmental degradation, but I digress.)

To keep the facts straight though, Pennsylvania still is growing in terms of natural increase (only Maine and West Virginia are currently experiencing more deaths than births), but among the rest of the US, PA has the second lowest natural increase rate (behind New Hampshire).

Also, immigration to PA actually has picked up in recent years, and net international migration is one area that is absolutely keeping the state afloat (much like places like New York and New Jersey). It's net international migration rate ties for 13th, which is a pretty good place to be in.

PA's negative domestic net migration rate is also in line with what would be expected for a northern, cold-climate state (and is MUCH better than many other states, like NY, NJ, IL, and CT), but it clearly is a drag on growth as well.

Again, it's clear that immigration is Pennsylvania's life line right now, and because its birth rate is unlikely to increase (declining birth rates are a GLOBAL trend), policies that encourage and welcome new populations are paramount for the economy.

(This is all based on the most recent Census estimates: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2...ate-total.html)

Maybe in certain areas. If any positive immigration is occurring it is most likely only happening along the Harrisburg, philly and jersey cooridor. That entire area is literally carrying the rest of the state. The future of population growth will be determined by jobs. I don't see a good market in Pittsburgh or the rest of the state. I think Pittsburgh and these other areas continue steep population declines and it will all be tied to poor job opportunities and no job growth.

How long can the Harrisburg philly cooridor carry the state? Granted the population growth there is astounding by Pennsylvania standards, but by national growth it is anemic and way below average.

What can Pennsylvania do to make itself more attractive and draw young people from other states in? What is the incentive to move to pa if you are a younger person? Look at North Carolina and the big cities of Charlotte and Raleigh. Pa is still bleeding a lot of young college grads to these cities. Phillys growth is good for pa, but compared to smaller metros like North Carolina ones it is anemic at best. And Philly is much more expensive and how much better are the philly wages? Even Pittsburgh is not cheap anymore.

Again where is the incentive to come or stay in pa long term? Is there the opportunity available here that there is elsewhere?

So how can Pennsylvania turn the stagnant growth around?

[North Beach Person]

Originally Posted by Oakland21550

Maybe in certain areas. If any positive immigration is occurring it is most likely only happening along the Harrisburg, philly and jersey cooridor. That entire area is literally carrying the rest of the state. The future of population growth will be determined by jobs. I don't see a good market in Pittsburgh or the rest of the state. I think Pittsburgh and these other areas continue steep population declines and it will all be tied to poor job opportunities and no job growth.

How long can the Harrisburg philly cooridor carry the state? Granted the population growth there is astounding by Pennsylvania standards, but by national growth it is anemic and way below average.

What can Pennsylvania do to make itself more attractive and draw young people from other states in? What is the incentive to move to pa if you are a younger person? Look at North Carolina and the big cities of Charlotte and Raleigh. Pa is still bleeding a lot of young college grads to these cities. Phillys growth is good for pa, but compared to smaller metros like North Carolina ones it is anemic at best. And Philly is much more expensive and how much better are the philly wages? Even Pittsburgh is not cheap anymore.

Again where is the incentive to come or stay in pa long term? Is there the opportunity available here that there is elsewhere?

So how can Pennsylvania turn the stagnant growth around?

What can be done?

First off some of you can quit the constant ***** ing and moaning about the weather.

[Oakland21550]

Originally Posted by North Beach Person

What can be done?

First off some of you can quit the constant ***** ing and moaning about the weather.

Yeah but it doesn't seem to affect the growth in Colorado, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oregon and Washington states. It's all about jobs. Seems there is a direct correlation with jobs and population growth. Weather doesn't seem to hinder those states.

If you look at each state in the eastern time zone north of the mason dixon line what you see is telling. I am referring as far west as Indiana each state north and east to Maine. Out of the whole region the following cities are the only ones growing in population and probably in this order. Columbus, Indianapolis, philly probably keep each of their respective states afloat. The torch carriers per se

1. New York City
2. Columbus, Ohio
3. Philadelphia
4. Indianapolis
5. Boston
6. Albany, ?
7. Wilkes Barrie/ Scranton?
8. Cincinnati? Barely

Everybody else is losing population and the list is large. Detroit, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Toledo, Fort Wayne, dayton, Akron, Erie, buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse,Hartford.

It is a north of the mason Dixon line eastern time zone problem. It just can't keep up with the west, sunbelt and south. Pa is in the thick of stagnation and decline.