PA population loss and retention - merged threads (Philadelphia, Pittsburgh: high crime, neighborhoods)

[trackstar13]

Originally Posted by Duderino

Younger population and a higher birth rate. That's really all there is to it.

Right, but why do these other states have younger populations and higher birth rates and what can PA do to combat this issue?

[North Beach Person]

Originally Posted by trackstar13

Right, but why do these other states have younger populations and higher birth rates and what can PA do to combat this issue?

Likely because PA is still having an out migration of younger people going to where jobs are, think teachers for that one as an example. I think you're also getting some in-migration of retirees who are either moving to take advantage of the state's tax advantages or who are returning home after leaving for work over the last 35 or so years.

We would move back, actually split time, and claim residency except I have things I do in Maryland which I wish to continue that require me to be a resident here.

[Craziaskowboi]

Originally Posted by North Beach Person

Likely because PA is still having an out migration of younger people going to where jobs are...

If that was the case, then Pennsylvania's median age ranking wouldn't have fallen from 3rd-oldest in 2000 to 6th-oldest in 2010, and it wouldn't be on pace to fall to 10th-oldest in 2020. Most of the rest of the U.S. is getting older at a much faster rate than Pennsylvania is now.

[trackstar13]

Originally Posted by Craziaskowboi

If that was the case, then Pennsylvania's median age ranking wouldn't have fallen from 3rd-oldest in 2000 to 6th-oldest in 2010, and it wouldn't be on pace to fall to 10th-oldest in 2020. Most of the rest of the U.S. is getting older at a much faster rate than Pennsylvania is now.

Good point and I think North Beach Person is right about how things were even 3-5 years ago, but I agree that PA is trending younger. I am just wondering if PA will be able to turn the corner and start growing at even a moderate pace in the near future.

[Craziaskowboi]

Originally Posted by trackstar13

Good point and I think North Beach Person is right about how things were even 3-5 years ago, but I agree that PA is trending younger. I am just wondering if PA will be able to turn the corner and start growing at even a moderate pace in the near future.

Pennsylvania will have its population growth stunted until its elderly percentage is more in line with the United States at large. And even after that, it probably won't have Sun Belt-level growth simply because retirees will continue to move to warmer climates, so net domestic migration will likely remain slightly negative. But once the die-off of the large elderly population has run its course, population growth will accelerate to some degree. Think 5% to 8% per decade, instead of 1% to 4%.

[trackstar13]

Originally Posted by Craziaskowboi

Pennsylvania will have its population growth stunted until its elderly percentage is more in line with the United States at large. And even after that, it probably won't have Sun Belt-level growth simply because retirees will continue to move to warmer climates, so net domestic migration will likely remain slightly negative. But once the die-off of the large elderly population has run its course, population growth will accelerate to some degree. Think 5% to 8% per decade, instead of 1% to 4%.

I believe that sun belt growth is rather unsustainable and I hope PA never has that type of growth. With that being said, it would be nice to have more of a steady growth, especially in cities like Erie, Pittsburgh, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, etc. because there is definitely space for me people in these areas.

[trackstar13]

I meant to say more people in my last post, not "me" people and I still believe PA population will be higher than 2010 in the 2020 census. With that being said, it looks like PA stands to lose some of its political clout as it may drop from 20 electoral votes currently to 19 votes in 2020. It seems that many of the colder states are losing votes due to population decline or stagnation with the exception of Alabama.

"Nine states stand to lose at least one district after the census: Pennsylvania, Alabama, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, and West Virginia."

Pa. electoral strength likely to change after 2020 census

[ghostee]

What is considered steady growth for Erie, Scranton, Pittsburgh, etc.

I can understand that sun-belt level growth may be unsustainable, but why don't you want to see more people living here?

[trackstar13]

Originally Posted by ghostee

What is considered steady growth for Erie, Scranton, Pittsburgh, etc.

I can understand that sun-belt level growth may be unsustainable, but why don't you want to see more people living here?

I would consider steady growth 2-3% every year for a few decades. I do want to see more people living in places like Erie, but I don't want to see explosive and uncontrolled growth like we are seeing in some parts of the sun belt. It is not very easy to develop cities in a smart manner if they are growing at a much faster than expected pace.

[ghostee]

Yeah, sad how things changed. I figure that population growth will become obsolete as more works is done by robots. You can thank that for disrupting any future population growth prospects for PA cities.