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Old 09-20-2016, 12:59 PM
 
1,344 posts, read 1,731,164 times
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Can someone explain why Pennsylvania has reliably gone Democrat in the last several presidential elections, but on the other hand has Republican control of both chambers of the state legislature, and a mix of D and R governors over the past 5 cycles?

I'm not here to start a political fight, but am genuinely curious as to why there is a split like this.

The only reason I can think of is differences in voter turnout in presidential elections vs midterm ones


Thanks
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Old 09-20-2016, 05:13 PM
 
Location: Montco PA
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The Republicans control the state-level because of districts and gerrymandering to keep certain parties in play. However, at the state level, across all counties, the more liberal Philadelphia region greatly affects state-wide elections.

I couldn't answer about the presidential election results except to say that the political affiliation of the last 6-7 presidents has flipped back and forth.
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Old 09-20-2016, 08:40 PM
 
Location: University City, Philadelphia
22,634 posts, read 14,863,727 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by papafox View Post
Can someone explain why Pennsylvania has reliably gone Democrat in the last several presidential elections, but on the other hand has Republican control of both chambers of the state legislature, and a mix of D and R governors over the past 5 cycles?

I'm not here to start a political fight, but am genuinely curious as to why there is a split like this.

The only reason I can think of is differences in voter turnout in presidential elections vs midterm ones


Thanks
One word answer: GERRYMANDERING.
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Old 09-21-2016, 06:57 AM
 
41,815 posts, read 50,795,636 times
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Gerrymandering plays a role but I don;t think it's quite that simple, the governors mansion was occupied by Corbett. Wolf didn't win that election either, Corbett lost it. Corbett was also the AG. Ridge also a Republican occupied it before Rendell. Gerrymandering has nothing to do with that.

Quote:
The only reason I can think of is differences in voter turnout in presidential elections vs midterm ones
That may play a role too but you'd have to go and look. The Democrats have about a 4:3 edge in registered voters but they have been very successful in their drives for registering minority voters. I don't know the statistics but I'd imagine they they may not be yearly voters. FYI Republican registrations are up about 5% before the primary compared to the Democrats who gained about 2%. The Democrats were also the losers in those switching parties by about a 2:1 margin.

The primary reason is the politics of PA, there is thin line that separates many of D's and R's in this state. Many are moderates and can vote either way hence the reason you can end up with Republican governor despite the Democrats edge of registered voters. If wolf continues the way he's going he will be 1 termer like Corbett and be replaced by Republican.
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Old 09-21-2016, 07:22 AM
 
5,287 posts, read 6,091,509 times
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The PA legislature is controlled by government employee unions regardless of party affiliation. Witness the unnecessary $1.5 billion increase in the state budget this year, most of which increase will go to union salaries, pensions and benefits. The corrupt duopoly exists at all levels of government (local, state and national) and is the enemy of the taxpayers.
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Old 09-21-2016, 08:12 AM
 
Location: Shawnee-on-Delaware, PA
7,936 posts, read 7,287,495 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by papafox View Post
Can someone explain why Pennsylvania has reliably gone Democrat in the last several presidential elections, but on the other hand has Republican control of both chambers of the state legislature, and a mix of D and R governors over the past 5 cycles?

Generally speaking, I've found that R voters tend to vote in "off-year elections" more than D voters do. That's how you get your down-ballot people elected (i.e. state legislators), except for places with extreme party hegemony like Philly and Scranton. Your D voters "come out of the woodwork" so to speak, every 4 years to vote for President.


Where I live, in Monroe County, there's been a huge influx in recent years of D voters from New York City, yet most local governments continue to be dominated by R's because the newcomers simply don't bother to vote in off-year elections. A friend of mine, who is an Independent and originally from NYC, actually didn't know what Township he lived in after living here for about 20 years, though he knew his mailing address. I don't think he is unique.
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Old 09-21-2016, 11:28 AM
 
4,081 posts, read 3,580,051 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thecoalman View Post
Gerrymandering plays a role but I don;t think it's quite that simple, the governors mansion was occupied by Corbett. Wolf didn't win that election either, Corbett lost it. Corbett was also the AG. Ridge also a Republican occupied it before Rendell. Gerrymandering has nothing to do with that.

That may play a role too but you'd have to go and look. The Democrats have about a 4:3 edge in registered voters but they have been very successful in their drives for registering minority voters. I don't know the statistics but I'd imagine they they may not be yearly voters. FYI Republican registrations are up about 5% before the primary compared to the Democrats who gained about 2%. The Democrats were also the losers in those switching parties by about a 2:1 margin.

The primary reason is the politics of PA, there is thin line that separates many of D's and R's in this state. Many are moderates and can vote either way hence the reason you can end up with Republican governor despite the Democrats edge of registered voters. If wolf continues the way he's going he will be 1 termer like Corbett and be replaced by Republican.
I hope and pray that Republicans can muster up a decent Gubernatorial candidate for 2018. Wolf has been a terrible governor thus far.
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Old 09-21-2016, 02:12 PM
 
1,344 posts, read 1,731,164 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wells5 View Post
The PA legislature is controlled by government employee unions regardless of party affiliation. Witness the unnecessary $1.5 billion increase in the state budget this year, most of which increase will go to union salaries, pensions and benefits. The corrupt duopoly exists at all levels of government (local, state and national) and is the enemy of the taxpayers.

As bad as that it, CT is 10x worse in that regard!!
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Old 09-21-2016, 06:29 PM
 
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Gerrymandering, indeed. Check out the 7th: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsy...ince_2013).tif
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Old 09-22-2016, 09:08 PM
 
Location: Philly
10,220 posts, read 16,729,984 times
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Pennsylvania has historically been a pocket book state. I'm not sure it's changed that much but the national Republican party has become less pennsylvanian and more southern over the years and consequently get fewer votes in Pennsylvania. Locally that is obviously not the case as state Republicans are very much representative of the state.
Statewide elections are typically won or lost in the philadelphia suburbs (as well as pittsburgh suburbs as well) that's where swing voters live
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