Will Trump take Pennsylvania? (Philadelphia, Republic: insurance, crimes, loan)

[BajanYankee]

Here's some basic math from the 2012 election. Philadelphia alone gave Barack Obama a head start of 465,184 votes.

Pennsylvania Election Results 2012 - Map, County Results, Live Updates - POLITICO.com

Now let's look at the votes Romney garnered in all of those tiny, heavily Republican counties.

Adams - 26,490
Armstrong - 19,231
Beaver - 42,118
Bedford - 16,509
Blair - 31,500
Butler - 59,146
Cambria - 33,464
Cameron - 1,264
Carbon - 12,710
Centre - 33,697
Clarion - 10,228
Clearfield - 20,303
Clinton - 6,941
Columbia - 13,445
Crawford - 19,497
Cumberland - 64,365
Elk - 7,099
Fayette - 25,845
Forest - 1,381
Fulton - 4,780
Greene - 7,985
Huntingdon - 11,953
Total: 469,951

So it takes all of those counties to match the total number of Democratic votes in one county (Philadelphia). And of course, the Democratic candidate is receiving votes in these counties as well, so it's not like these smaller counties are evening the score (though they do close the gap). There's also the demographic reality: a lot of these counties are aging and shrinking while the city of Philadelphia is growing. Philadelphia will probably add more voters to the electorate than all of these counties combined.

[BajanYankee]

I think Trump's support is actually over-estimated for a couple of reasons.

1. Trump's strongest support comes from exurbs and rural areas. These people are convinced that their communities are the "Real America" and are representative of their state or nation as a whole when demographic data shows the complete opposite is true. This was why, I believe, so many people were shocked when Obama won such a decisive victory in 2012. They are still under the impression that America is the same place it was when Reagan wiped Walter Mondale off the map in 1984.

2. Research shows that conservative voters live in a conservative media echo chamber. They don't understand that 95% of Americans are not obsessed with Benghazi. Since they mostly consume content from conservative media outlets (i.e., Breitbart, Limbaugh, Beck, etc.), they are often living in a completely different reality from more moderate Independents, Republicans and Democrats.

2012 was supposed to be the year of a massive uprising where the Silent Majority tossed an "uppity" failure of a President out of the White House onto his bum. That didn't quite work the way they saw it going. But 2016 is the year where a massive uprising of the Silent Majority will make it great again! (even though the demographics of the country are even less favorable in 2016 than they were in 2012).

[fisheye]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

I think Trump's support is actually over-estimated for a couple of reasons.

1. Trump's strongest support comes from exurbs and rural areas. These people are convinced that their communities are the "Real America" and are representative of their state or nation as a whole when demographic data shows the complete opposite is true. This was why, I believe, so many people were shocked when Obama won such a decisive victory in 2012. They are still under the impression that America is the same place it was when Reagan wiped Walter Mondale off the map in 1984.

2. Research shows that conservative voters live in a conservative media echo chamber. They don't understand that 95% of Americans are not obsessed with Benghazi. Since they mostly consume content from conservative media outlets (i.e., Breitbart, Limbaugh, Beck, etc.), they are often living in a completely different reality from more moderate Independents, Republicans and Democrats.

2012 was supposed to be the year of a massive uprising where the Silent Majority tossed an "uppity" failure of a President out of the White House onto his bum. That didn't quite work the way they saw it going. But 2016 is the year where a massive uprising of the Silent Majority will make it great again! (even though the demographics of the country are even less favorable in 2016 than they were in 2012).

What we see at Trump rallies is enthusiasm. Hillary just doesn't play to her audience. Her audiences seem very screened and very conservative with their support.

The polls are also all over the place and we have not seen too much of how the latest scandal will affect the voters or voter turnout. We also have not heard from groups that have threatened to drop, email leak, mega-bombshells on Hillary. The race will not be over until it's over.

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by fisheye

What we see at Trump rallies is enthusiasm. Hillary just doesn't play to her audience. Her audiences seem very screened and very conservative with their support.

The polls are also all over the place and we have not seen too much of how the latest scandal will affect the voters or voter turnout. We also have not heard from groups that have threatened to drop, email leak, mega-bombshells on Hillary. The race will not be over until it's over.

Romney also had big rallies. Rallies don't mean anything. Obama had much, much bigger rallies than Clinton during the 2008 primary season and lost a lot of primaries, including a very sound 10 point defeat to Clinton in Pennsylvania. Bernie Sanders also had some big rallies and yet he lost many of the same states to Clinton that Obama did.

Campaign Mystery: Why Don't Bernie Sanders' Big Rallies Lead To Big Wins? : NPR

People often talk about the enthusiasm for Obama in 2008, but it wasn't really enthusiasm that won him the White House. It was organization. Obama was literally crushed in almost every large primary where there weren't an abundance of African American voters.

Primary and Caucus Results - Election Guide 2008 - Percent of Vote - The New York Times

California: Clinton +8
Florida: Clinton +17 (disqualified)
Massachusetts: Clinton +15
New Jersey: Clinton +10
New York: Clinton +17
Ohio: Clinton +10
Pennsylvania: Clinton +10
Texas: Clinton +4

Obama had way bigger rallies than Clinton. That still didn't stop him from losing in big primaries. If history is any guide, rally size is not an accurate indication of a candidate's actual support.

[fisheye]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

Romney also had big rallies. Rallies don't mean anything. Obama had much, much bigger rallies than Clinton during the 2008 primary season and lost a lot of primaries, including a very sound 10 point defeat to Clinton in Pennsylvania. Bernie Sanders also had some big rallies and yet he lost many of the same states to Clinton that Obama did.

Campaign Mystery: Why Don't Bernie Sanders' Big Rallies Lead To Big Wins? : NPR

People often talk about the enthusiasm for Obama in 2008, but it wasn't really enthusiasm that won him the White House. It was organization. Obama was literally crushed in almost every large primary where there weren't an abundance of African American voters.

Primary and Caucus Results - Election Guide 2008 - Percent of Vote - The New York Times

California: Clinton +8
Florida: Clinton +17 (disqualified)
Massachusetts: Clinton +15
New Jersey: Clinton +10
New York: Clinton +17
Ohio: Clinton +10
Pennsylvania: Clinton +10
Texas: Clinton +4

Obama had way bigger rallies than Clinton. That still didn't stop him from losing in big primaries. If history is any guide, rally size is not an accurate indication of a candidate's actual support.

This poll is showing Trump within 2 points: http://20an0w2e66jla4rfm1idisr1.wpen...ase-103016.pdf. The race is closing.

PS I also believe that was before the FBI made their announcement.

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by fisheye

This poll is showing Trump within 2 points: http://20an0w2e66jla4rfm1idisr1.wpen...ase-103016.pdf. Your showing 10 points; the race is closing.

PS I also believe that was before the FBI made their announcement.

Did you mean you're? I didn't post any polls so I have no idea what you're talking about.

I don't even mind polls like Gravis and Remington that purposely inflate the Republican candidate's poll standing (it will make victory that much sweeter). Trump will go to West Philly and drop the N-Word in front of a mosque and the headline for the poll will read "Trump surges among Blacks in Philadelphia, narrowing Clinton's lead among Blacks to 10 points!" The fact that people keep bringing these polls up after such a devastating humiliation in 2012 leads me to the conclusion that many C-D posters are paid operatives.

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by fisheye

This poll is showing Trump within 2 points: http://20an0w2e66jla4rfm1idisr1.wpen...ase-103016.pdf. The race is closing.

PS I also believe that was before the FBI made their announcement.

Yes, let's pretend that only Hillary has been marred by "scandal," when Trump has irrevocably damaged his image based on countless gaffes and inept comments beyond comprehension.

However wishful Republican thinking is, no one is going to suddenly forget the image that Trump has created of himself. Even after the announcement to repeat a vague email investigation, an issue that the vast majority of normal people stopped caring about months ago.

[fisheye]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

Did you mean you're? I didn't post any polls so I have no idea what you're talking about.

I don't even mind polls like Gravis and Remington that purposely inflate the Republican candidate's poll standing (it will make victory that much sweeter). Trump will go to West Philly and drop the N-Word in front of a mosque and the headline for the poll will read "Trump surges among Blacks in Philadelphia, narrowing Clinton's lead among Blacks to 10 points!" The fact that people keep bringing these polls up after such a devastating humiliation in 2012 leads me to the conclusion that many C-D posters are paid operatives.

Thanks for the correction - but I had already caught myself. The Remington poll was headlines today on the Keystone Report: KEYSTONE REPORT- Pennsylvania News, Politics, Culture, And Corruption.

By the way; I am not a paid operative. I used to be a Democrat for most of my 69 years. Then I was an Independent until Trump came along. I simply work hard for a living and like the idea of putting America first. I have also worked as a 'temp' for eight years at the same company; which is one good reason to ask for change. Right now our State is getting rocked by increases in Obamacare; that is another reason that people might not support more years of the same.

[fisheye]

Originally Posted by Duderino

Yes, let's pretend that only Hillary has been marred by "scandal," when Trump has irrevocably damaged his image based on countless gaffes and inept comments beyond comprehension.

However wishful Republican thinking is, no one is going to suddenly forget the image that Trump has created of himself. Even after the announcement to repeat a vague email investigation, an issue that the vast majority of normal people stopped caring about months ago.

And you will accuse a former Democrat and then Independent of distraction! Let's see how this plays out.

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by fisheye

Thanks for the correction - but I had already caught myself. The Remington poll was headlines today on the Keystone Report: KEYSTONE REPORT- Pennsylvania News, Politics, Culture, And Corruption.

By the way; I am not a paid operative. I used to be a Democrat for most of my 69 years. Then I was an Independent until Trump came along. I simply work hard for a living and like the idea of putting America first. I have also worked as a 'temp' for eight years at the same company; which is one good reason to ask for change. Right now our State is getting rocked by increases in Obamacare; that is another reason that people might not support more years of the same.

I fully encourage you to vote for Trump. The sadist in me wants him to get elected just to see the country go down the tubes and his supporters freak out. When that happens, though, we won't be able to find anyone who will confess to voting for that idiot. It will be exactly like all of the Bush supporters who evaporated after it became clear the Iraq War was a "complete disaster" (as Trump says).

America probably deserves Trump. We are a country full of people who believe that the federal budget has all of the simplicity of a Bank of America checking account.