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Location: Appalachian New York, Formerly Louisiana
4,409 posts, read 6,543,919 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott_Holiday
Its just that PA is such a long state to cross. Pittsburgh and Philly just seem in different states when driving. They might as well be different states. Its 310 miles from downtown
Pitt to downtown philly with the western border of the state is roughly 340 miles from the eastern pa border. Its hard to just call the entire state of pa northeast, when in the southwestern part of the state I've seen just as many confederate flags as I see driving across the state of Alabama
From where I live a 340 mile drive could allow me to drive through 4 to 5 states or 4 hours into Canada. Think about where you live. How far would you be able to drive in 340 miles? Totally different culture I'm sure
Have... have you looked at a map? NY is not tiny you know.
As far as confederate flags, I can show you many of them right here where I live... in NY. In fact right here in Montour Falls, at the north end of town there is a small house next to the cliff. They fly the confederate flag all year round. It's right where tourists will see it too.
Just up the hill towards the NASCAR track there's a barn that dons the confederate flag every summer. There's a truck in Beaver Dams (not far from me) that has its back hatch painted as the confederate flag. New York plates, New York Yankee owner and operator.
Yes, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are drastically different cities. So are Buffalo and Albany. So are Corning and NYC. Does that also make NY state not northeastern or does it only work for PA?
Numerically, she did a little better than Obama in Allegheny County. Nate Silver was terrible with this year's election as well so how good is his word really?
This means that Allegheny County was D+15% in 2012, and D+16% in 2016, which means that its partisan shift from 2012-2016 was D+1%. In fact, if you look at the raw numbers, the number of votes in Allegheny County for the Democrat candidate increased from 2012-2016, and the number of votes for the Republican candidate decreased. Both political parties had smaller percentages of the overall vote in 2016, however, because many people were turned off by both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, and, thus, the Libertarian and Green Party candidates both got more votes than normal. There were probably some write-ins for Bernie Sanders and Evan McMullin as well.
Its just that PA is such a long state to cross. Pittsburgh and Philly just seem in different states when driving. They might as well be different states. Its 310 miles from downtown
Pitt to downtown philly with the western border of the state is roughly 340 miles from the eastern pa border. Its hard to just call the entire state of pa northeast, when in the southwestern part of the state I've seen just as many confederate flags as I see driving across the state of Alabama
From where I live a 340 mile drive could allow me to drive through 4 to 5 states or 4 hours into Canada. Think about where you live. How far would you be able to drive in 340 miles? Totally different culture I'm sure
Starting in Kansas City and heading west on I-70, after 340 miles you'd still have another 80 to go before leaving Kansas.
My native Missouri is larger in area than any state east of the Mississippi. From its northern border to its southern one is a bit more than 300 miles as well. You'll find the Confederate flags flying in the state's southeast corner.
This means that Allegheny County was D+15% in 2012, and D+16% in 2016, which means that its partisan shift from 2012-2016 was D+1%. In fact, if you look at the raw numbers, the number of votes in Allegheny County for the Democrat candidate increased from 2012-2016, and the number of votes for the Republican candidate decreased. Both political parties had smaller percentages of the overall vote in 2016, however, because many people were turned off by both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, and, thus, the Libertarian and Green Party candidates both got more votes than normal. There were probably some write-ins for Bernie Sanders and Evan McMullin as well.
You are correct, but the western part of the state is very conservative compared to the east. This is due to declines in the west and growth in the east. Allegheny County trends democrat because of the votes in the city limits. Trump almost had a clean sweep of all the western suburbs from the city line. Clinton only won McKees rocks by a measly 98 votes. I expect the democrat percentage margins continue to shrink because of the population declines. Republicans have an opening to flip this county red in future elections. Declining counties have shifted towards the republicans and growing counties shifted to the democrats nationwide.
Tom Corbett was able to turn Allegheny county Red against Dan onoroto. Allegheny county is a lean blue county in a sea of red. For a few hundred miles in each direction
Republicans have an opening to flip this county red in future elections. Declining counties have shifted towards the republicans and growing counties shifted to the democrats nationwide.
Tom Corbett was able to turn Allegheny county Red against Dan onoroto. Allegheny county is a lean blue county in a sea of red. For a few hundred miles in each direction
If you look at exit polling between 2012 and 2016 for Pennsylvania you'll find one simple answer for the greater margins for Republicans--the percentage of Democrats among those turning out declined from 45% to 42% this year, and the percentage of Republicans among those turning out increased from 35% to 39%. That's a net 7% percent shift to Republican turnout.
That's a very distinct and important difference than individual voters fundamentally shifting their voting choices (although one caveat is that Independents did in fact shift their preference this year to the Republican candidate instead of the Democrat in 2012).
Elections are all about turnout, and this year, fewer Democrats decided to not vote for a multitude of reasons. Unfortunately for them, the combination of more Republicans filling in the gap and a moderate shift towards Republican votes among Independents was just enough to put Trump over the edge.
Other than that, it's absoltely true that there has been some changing of party identification among older, blue-collar white Democrats to becoming Republicans, but this is vastly overstated, because there's evidence that the lionshare of these Dems-turned-Republicans were crossing party lines by voting Republican for years before making the official jump. Let's keep in mind also that Pennsylvania still has upwards of a 900k edge in Democratic registration over the Republicans.
Moving forward you may be right that there may be a little more Democratic attrition in places like Western PA, but it's very likely not nearly enough to counteract a continued Democratic shift in Eastern PA, which will continue to attract immigrants and transplants from places like New York, New Jersey and Maryland that have a much higher likelihood of voting Democratic.
Not to mention, all it takes is running a candidate like Bernie Sanders in 2020, and Pennsylvania will solve their Democratic turnout issue in no time.
Starting in Kansas City and heading west on I-70, after 340 miles you'd still have another 80 to go before leaving Kansas.
My native Missouri is larger in area than any state east of the Mississippi. From its northern border to its southern one is a bit more than 300 miles as well. You'll find the Confederate flags flying in the state's southeast corner.
The most Confederate-decorated pickup truck I've ever seen had Illinois plates. And it wasn't the only pickup truck I've ever seen with Confederate flags and Illinois plates either.
By the way, the global energy market crashed, resulting in massive energy job losses, causing a subsequent spike in Pennsylvania's unemployment rate. Pennsylvania is now more susceptible to the booms and busts of the global energy market than it was before, so you can expect a consistent inverse relationship between energy prices and Pennsylvania's unemployment rate going forward. As energy prices increase, watch the unemployment rate decrease.
On a related note, which political party do people who work in the energy industry tend to vote for? Oh yeah, that might explain a thing or two about this past election as well.
The most Confederate-decorated pickup truck I've ever seen had Illinois plates. And it wasn't the only pickup truck I've ever seen with Confederate flags and Illinois plates either.
By the way, the global energy market crashed, resulting in massive energy job losses, causing a subsequent spike in Pennsylvania's unemployment rate. Pennsylvania is now more susceptible to the booms and busts of the global energy market than it was before, so you can expect a consistent inverse relationship between energy prices and Pennsylvania's unemployment rate going forward. As energy prices increase, watch the unemployment rate decrease.
On a related note, which political party do people who work in the energy industry tend to vote for? Oh yeah, that might explain a thing or two about this past election as well.
I think you are partially right. Whether or not western pa grows in the future is most likely due to the energy industry. The same can be said for northern West Virginia and southeast Ohio. I think you are overrating the western pa economy in relation to the state.. The energy industry provided a big boost for about 4 years. Population stabilized there and to the same extent had a similar effect on the Scranton Williamsport area. What you see is the western pa economy for what it really is. It was always in decline and the new found use of Marcellus shale stopped the bleeding for 4 years. Southeastern pa has been the best employment area of the state and recently it has slowed there as well. If Philly isn't moving forward the state economy tanks. It would be an added bonus if western pa could pick up the slack but I don't see it happening without the gas industry. There is no new business going on in the region to make a significant and wide spread impact. Just relying on the economy in western pa to carry the state economy is like trying win a butt kicking contest with one leg.
The problem is the western pa workforce is old and there is a total skills mismatch between good paying jobs that are available and young people that are qualified. Public schools in the tri state area are underprepared and do not have the tax base anymore to offer quality programs to educate the locals in high school. On top of the difficulty of trying to get people to relocate to the Pittsburgh area. A tough task in and of itself.
Most of western pa voted for trump other than the tiny blue dot inside of Allegheny county. These people want good paying jobs where they can work for 30 years and then retire. They want trump to help provide them. Unfortunately most of these people lack the skills for 21st century jobs as they sat at home and blamed others the last 16 years for manufacturing leaving and their economic woes. Even if there was a job boom there it wouldn't be able to really boom. Where are the skilled workers going to come from?
You are correct, but the western part of the state is very conservative compared to the east. This is due to declines in the west and growth in the east. Allegheny County trends democrat because of the votes in the city limits. Trump almost had a clean sweep of all the western suburbs from the city line. Clinton only won McKees rocks by a measly 98 votes. I expect the democrat percentage margins continue to shrink because of the population declines. Republicans have an opening to flip this county red in future elections. Declining counties have shifted towards the republicans and growing counties shifted to the democrats nationwide.
Tom Corbett was able to turn Allegheny county Red against Dan onoroto. Allegheny county is a lean blue county in a sea of red. For a few hundred miles in each direction
You clearly know very little about my county. You keep ignoring the fact Trump got fewer votes than Romney in Allegheny County while Hilary got more than Obama. I really don't get how you can claim my county is going red when it went more blue in a state that flipped to red. This is really starting to feel like subtle trolling. Further, the city makes up less than a quarter of Allegheny County's population so there are many older towns and inner suburbs that went for her too over Trump. There is a map on page 4 that shows this...... Do you also realize the population of Mckeesrocks is only 6,000? So of course neither candidate would have won by a massive amount of votes there. Tom Corbett only won this county in 2010 as well because he was the county executive here and was unpopular in his job and once again, you ignore that Allegheny and many other western PA counties switched to Wolf.
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