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Whenever possible congressional districts must resemble symmetrical, monotone polygons with respect to four lines forming a rectangle that encompasses the state.
That's a ridiculous idea.... The boundaries obviously should not be taking political affiliations into consideration but things like natural boundaries and regions should be considered.
Well, the PA Supreme Court has ruled. Legislature must have new, nonpartisan maps passed by February 15th, or else they'll have a Special Master redraw the state map themselves. Given it's almost certain whatever the Republican Assembly passes will either be vetoed by Tom Wolf or not pass muster with the PASC, it's a done deal we're getting a court-drawn map.
The result is likely one gimme pickup for the Ds in SEPA (a compact, DelCo seat), and PA-6, PA-15, and to a lesser extent PA-8 reconfigured into true swing districts.
I don't see much else happening in terms of partisan changes elsewhere in the state, but I do expect a lot cleanup of district borders and more cohesive communities of interest.
As an aside, here's a nonpartisan map I drew earlier in the month in my spare time. I think something like this is likely.
PA-1 becomes a compact district based in Northeast Philly, losing all its tendrils into Delaware County. Still plurality white (42%) but Bob Brady's base is mostly gone, so he should lose in a primary. Still safe D
PA-2 is largely the same, but it contracts into Philly in its entirety, trading parts of suburban Montgomery County for South/Southwest Philly. Still safe D
PA-3 changes configuration considerably. The district gains the whole of Erie County (much of which is still Democratic leaning) and most of Beaver County. It loses hard-right Butler and Armstrong County. Obama actually won 51.5% of the vote here in 2008, but the area has drifted hard to the right since then outside of Erie County itself. It's still likely a Lean R seat, but in the 2018 midterm environment, it could easily be a D pickup.
PA-4 is still a South-Central PA seat - it just shifts a bit to the west. Still safe R.
PA-5 doesn't change much, with its base in the "empty quarter" of north-central PA, although it does lose areas near Erie and State College, and gains more of the Pittsburgh MSA's rural fringes. Still safe R
PA-6 is very heavily reconfigured into a seat which contains almost the entirety of Chester County and southern Berks County (including the city of Reading). Obama won 55.5% of the vote here in 2008, though it is more Republican downballot. Under normal circumstances, it would be a tossup seat, but in 2018 dynamics, it's a likely D pickup
PA-7 is one of the worst gerrymanders on the current map, and changes configuration significantly. It loses the weird tendrils going throughout the Philly suburbs and becomes a compact district with all of Delaware County, plus a bit of Philly, Chester County, and Montgomery County. Obama won 61.4% of the vote here in 2008, which makes it the fourth-most Democratic seat in the state. A certain D pickup.
PA-8 is mostly unchanged, in that it continues to contain the entirety of Bucks County. However, the balance of population is now drawn not from Montgomery County, but far Northeast Philly. Obama won 53.7% of the vote here. Under normal circumstances, the Republican strength downballot would still make this seat Lean R, but it should easily fall (just as the current seat could) in the 2018 tsunami.
PA-9 is still the Central PA "mountain" district. It retreats a bit from Western PA and moves a bit northward, taking in several areas including State College. That's not anywhere near enough to make it competitive though. Safe R.
PA-10 is still the rural Northeastern PA district, and still safe R, although the borders are cleaned up a bit.
PA-11 is a very different district than its current configuration, containing only a few bits of the current district (mostly around Harrisburg). It bears a close resemblance to the old PA-17 represented by conservative Democrat Tim Holden in the last decade, with a mix of old Coal Region areas and parts of rural South-Central PA. Obama came close to winning here in 2008 with 48.5% of the vote. Although it's still a likely R seat, it should be competitive in a wave election.
PA-12 compacts down from its current gerrymandered form into a compact Pittsburgh suburban district based on the northern and western suburbs, plus some exurban areas in adjoining counties. It's still not super competitive for Democrats (in 2008 Obama only got 45.9% of the vote) but the North Hills were not very keen on Trump, meaning the Democrats have a shot of a pickup here.
PA-13 pulls out of Philly and becomes entirely contained within Montgomery County. The district swings to the right a bit (Obama only got 58.9% of the vote here) but it should still be a pretty safe D seat.
PA-14 remains based in the City of Pittsburgh, but trades some Democratic suburbs to the north and west of the city for more eastern and southern suburbs. It's still a safe D seat. There really isn't any way to make two D seats in Western PA without splitting Pittsburgh any longer, and a neutral map isn't going to do that.
PA-15 retreats back into being exclusively a Lehigh Valley district, getting back Bethlehem and Easton and losing rural portions of South-Central PA which were added to make it a safe hold for Republicans. Obama won 55.8% of the vote here in 2008, but Republicans perform pretty well downballot. It would still be a likely pickup in the 2018 environment.
PA-16 loses the weird tendrils to take in the city of Reading and parts of Chester County. It's now all of Lancaster County and around half of York County. As a result, it goes from likely R to totally safe R.
PA-17 changes in shape a lot, becoming more similar to the PA-11 from last decade. It just so happens that Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Monroe Counties are exactly big enough together to make a single district, which is why I put them together. Obama won 57.5% of the vote here in 2008, although like the current PA-17, it was almost certainly a narrow Trump district in 2018. Still, it should be a relatively easy D hold.
PA-18 loses its gerrymandered shape and becomes a compact district based in the four exurban/rural counties of Southwestern Pennsylvania. Even ten years ago this district would have been competitive for the Democrats, but the Democratic base in the Mon Valley is dying off fast. Still safe R.
That's a ridiculous idea.... The boundaries obviously should not be taking political affiliations into consideration but things like natural boundaries and regions should be considered.
It will keep districts like district 7 from being formed again which will cut down on gerrymandering.
As an aside, here's a nonpartisan map I drew earlier in the month in my spare time. I think something like this is likely.
PA-1 becomes a compact district based in Northeast Philly, losing all its tendrils into Delaware County. Still plurality white (42%) but Bob Brady's base is mostly gone, so he should lose in a primary. Still safe D
PA-2 is largely the same, but it contracts into Philly in its entirety, trading parts of suburban Montgomery County for South/Southwest Philly. Still safe D
PA-3 changes configuration considerably. The district gains the whole of Erie County (much of which is still Democratic leaning) and most of Beaver County. It loses hard-right Butler and Armstrong County. Obama actually won 51.5% of the vote here in 2008, but the area has drifted hard to the right since then outside of Erie County itself. It's still likely a Lean R seat, but in the 2018 midterm environment, it could easily be a D pickup.
PA-4 is still a South-Central PA seat - it just shifts a bit to the west. Still safe R.
PA-5 doesn't change much, with its base in the "empty quarter" of north-central PA, although it does lose areas near Erie and State College, and gains more of the Pittsburgh MSA's rural fringes. Still safe R
PA-6 is very heavily reconfigured into a seat which contains almost the entirety of Chester County and southern Berks County (including the city of Reading). Obama won 55.5% of the vote here in 2008, though it is more Republican downballot. Under normal circumstances, it would be a tossup seat, but in 2018 dynamics, it's a likely D pickup
PA-7 is one of the worst gerrymanders on the current map, and changes configuration significantly. It loses the weird tendrils going throughout the Philly suburbs and becomes a compact district with all of Delaware County, plus a bit of Philly, Chester County, and Montgomery County. Obama won 61.4% of the vote here in 2008, which makes it the fourth-most Democratic seat in the state. A certain D pickup.
PA-8 is mostly unchanged, in that it continues to contain the entirety of Bucks County. However, the balance of population is now drawn not from Montgomery County, but far Northeast Philly. Obama won 53.7% of the vote here. Under normal circumstances, the Republican strength downballot would still make this seat Lean R, but it should easily fall (just as the current seat could) in the 2018 tsunami.
PA-9 is still the Central PA "mountain" district. It retreats a bit from Western PA and moves a bit northward, taking in several areas including State College. That's not anywhere near enough to make it competitive though. Safe R.
PA-10 is still the rural Northeastern PA district, and still safe R, although the borders are cleaned up a bit.
PA-11 is a very different district than its current configuration, containing only a few bits of the current district (mostly around Harrisburg). It bears a close resemblance to the old PA-17 represented by conservative Democrat Tim Holden in the last decade, with a mix of old Coal Region areas and parts of rural South-Central PA. Obama came close to winning here in 2008 with 48.5% of the vote. Although it's still a likely R seat, it should be competitive in a wave election.
PA-12 compacts down from its current gerrymandered form into a compact Pittsburgh suburban district based on the northern and western suburbs, plus some exurban areas in adjoining counties. It's still not super competitive for Democrats (in 2008 Obama only got 45.9% of the vote) but the North Hills were not very keen on Trump, meaning the Democrats have a shot of a pickup here.
PA-13 pulls out of Philly and becomes entirely contained within Montgomery County. The district swings to the right a bit (Obama only got 58.9% of the vote here) but it should still be a pretty safe D seat.
PA-14 remains based in the City of Pittsburgh, but trades some Democratic suburbs to the north and west of the city for more eastern and southern suburbs. It's still a safe D seat. There really isn't any way to make two D seats in Western PA without splitting Pittsburgh any longer, and a neutral map isn't going to do that.
PA-15 retreats back into being exclusively a Lehigh Valley district, getting back Bethlehem and Easton and losing rural portions of South-Central PA which were added to make it a safe hold for Republicans. Obama won 55.8% of the vote here in 2008, but Republicans perform pretty well downballot. It would still be a likely pickup in the 2018 environment.
PA-16 loses the weird tendrils to take in the city of Reading and parts of Chester County. It's now all of Lancaster County and around half of York County. As a result, it goes from likely R to totally safe R.
PA-17 changes in shape a lot, becoming more similar to the PA-11 from last decade. It just so happens that Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Monroe Counties are exactly big enough together to make a single district, which is why I put them together. Obama won 57.5% of the vote here in 2008, although like the current PA-17, it was almost certainly a narrow Trump district in 2018. Still, it should be a relatively easy D hold.
PA-18 loses its gerrymandered shape and becomes a compact district based in the four exurban/rural counties of Southwestern Pennsylvania. Even ten years ago this district would have been competitive for the Democrats, but the Democratic base in the Mon Valley is dying off fast. Still safe R.
The descriptions are great, but I don't see the map in your post.
Are western and eastern Franklin county really two different counties?
Of course not.
If you're talking about the map I drew, I chose to split Franklin County for two reasons. One, because some county needed to be split along the border of the 9th and the 4th in order to equalize population. Also, to a degree the county is a bit split, with portions of it being in the mountains and others down in the valley. Thus to the extent possible I tried to put the mountain portions in PA-9, and the more rural farming areas into PA-4, since it made more sense from a community of interest perspective.
Sometimes I wonder if the fannet metal and James Buchanon school districts have a different culture than the rest of franklin county. Your western portion includes those as well as parts of shippensburg and chambersburg school districts.
Last edited by jate88; 01-22-2018 at 11:14 PM..
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