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Old 07-27-2020, 06:57 PM
 
802 posts, read 798,662 times
Reputation: 722

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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarketStEl View Post
This is a rather cogent commentary, but as it's often my wont to pick nits, you left one for me to pick:



Keep in mind that all of the Democratic primaries up to the South Carolina one were notable for their lack of members of the group that now is the Democrats' most reliable voting bloc: African-Americans.

Once the race entered a state where they were a force to be reckoned with, Biden won handily.

Democrats won't win if African-Americans stay home. Relative to their performance in Pennsylvania in Obama's two elections, they were noticeably less enthusiastic for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Had they voted for her in the same numbers they voted for Obama, Clinton would have carried the state. The rest of the Democrats picked up the signal Black voters sent in South Carolina, which is why even Bernie fell in line even if he didn't completely end his campaign.
Even though Black Americans will still vote Democrat this upcoming election, I can still see Trump getting a portion of the black vote, at least 20-25% of it. A majority of black voters will stay home, practically double the amount that stayed home in 2016. I do see Trump edging Biden on the growing Latino vote and maybe the Asian vote, but back regarding the black vote: you just can't tell black voters, especially young, black male voters that if you don't vote Democrat, you ain't black and expect to win the black vote!!! (
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhcgmwj3NAc) I feel that outburst alone will cost him a chunk of the black vote alone, especially voters under 50!

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarketStEl View Post
I do know that there was a generation gap among Black voters: younger ones broke for Sanders, and the younger Black voters I know who have weighed in on this thread did same. But most of us older voters have forgiven Biden his past slights and offenses, and his service as Obama's Vice President cemented his current reputation as a friend of ours.

And besides, while Sanders did have the largest share of the vote in those early primaries, I will point this out once again:

When those Democrats were presented with a choice between Bernie Sanders and Someone Else, 75 percent of them chose Someone Else.
I'm not under 30, but I'm younger than 50, and even though Biden has had his lion's share of gaffes, probably more than any modern-day candidate, like I said in my last paragraph, by tying black voters to the destiny of the Democrat Party is going to cost Biden big in the 2020 presidential election, especially when it comes to the black vote.

The only black voters who I see voting for Biden without any condition are the over 65 voters, especially considering that a majority saw the Civil Rights Movements either as teenagers or as younger adults and feel that since Biden is associated with the country's first Black president, than those over 65 voters feel that Biden deserves a chance as president.

Under 65 is a different ballgame, as many that are under 65 are still working age and either have to run businesses and at the same time raise families and the current trajectory of today's Democrat party isn't one for the family, but one of LGBT and the undocumented and since African Americans make up 90% of the black population in America and come from conservative backgrounds due to the black church, some of those voters are either going to sit this one out again or defect to either the GOP or any other third party, but in other words, the grip the Dems have on the black vote is starting to loosen up.



Quote:
Originally Posted by MarketStEl View Post
I'm not sure they have gone that far, but our current President continues to show an inexplicable fondness for Vladimir Putin, who's busy trying to wreck this election the way he nearly did the last one — and Trump is not only doing nothing to keep that from happening but also sowing FUD himself while voting by the very means he denounces as fraud-prone.
I don't see Trump as a Putin sympathizer but as one who's a nationalist and a populist. In other words, it's pretty much every man for himself when it comes to foreign affairs, and since Trump is unpopular with globalist circles, I don't really see him trying to be fond with Putin nor aggressive.



Quote:
Originally Posted by MarketStEl View Post
The polls called the national popular vote accurately: Clinton did beat Trump on that score. But it's the Electoral College that counts, and when the country is deeply divided and partisan polarization runs high, that's when you get Presidents who lose the popular vote but win the Electoral College. (George W. Bush did the same in 2000.)
The 2016 presidential election results are still up for debate, as CA is under scrutiny for allowing illegal aliens to vote via mail-in ballots. I don't see how CA can shake this off and now that President Trump isn't considering illegal aliens to be counted, which means that illegal aliens can't receive benefits from the state nor can they be counted in the 2020 Census, which would result in CA losing two congressional seats and TX only getting two seats and FL only getting one. (https://laist.com/latest/post/202007...49th-district; https://www.sfgate.com/nation/articl...t-14942195.php)

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarketStEl View Post
I agree with your statement about not having to vote for any particular candidate, but surely you've seen your share of "vote blue no matter who" statements issuing from not just older Democrats. The fact is, most Democrats who will turn out in November are doing so not so much to put Joe Biden in office but to eject Donald Trump from it.
So what's Biden's political platform for the local economy, for foreign affairs, for immigration and national security, and for labor, for infrastructure, and for education??? If people are so pissed that they'll vote Trump out for a has-been who doesn't even seem coherent let alone competent and healthy enough to even last a term, then as a registered Democrat, I'll have to ride out this next four years of Trump the way I rid out the final four years or Bush Jr. If the sky is falling according to the MSM, let it fall, I have too much going on in my life to believe that Trump is the next heir apparent to Hitler and the Third Reich.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarketStEl View Post
The hitch is, since Trump's base is as fanatically welded to him as the Democrats are fanatically opposed to him, neither side can win just on their bases alone — they must garner votes from outside it. For the Democrats, one of the most promising sources of those votes are the Republican NeverTrumpers like the people behind The Lincoln Project, who are producing devastating TV ads mocking Trump's competence, or the editors of The Bulwark, who represent the side of conservatism that has no truck with racism and are busy trying to save the conservative movement from itself. Rightly or wrongly, many Democrats, including me, believe that this crowd would never be able to swallow hard enough to vote for Bernie Sanders, even if, as I also believe, he actually could have fought Trump on his own turf with his own rhetoric. They are willing to swallow hard and vote for Biden, and several of them have already said as much.
Trump can win PA by not relying on Allegheny County or the five-county SE PA region. The Democrat party has tilted so far to the right that now it's unrecognizable as the party of the worker and the party of minorities and immigrants. Just because a party trots along a minority candidate doesn't mean it has good intentions for that voting base. Either come up with tangibles or we'll sit this race out, and if Biden can't come up with a female candidate that can rile up the female and minority bases, then stick a fork in 2020, I don't even see Biden winning his home state!!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarketStEl View Post
I at least welcome their support. Biden is a placeholder; he's keeping the Presidency warm for a younger Democrat who will follow him, which is why everyone is keen to know who he will choose as Vice President. But a placeholder may be just what we need: It would give everyone else time to cool down, take a deep breath, and consider what really matters as far as the survival of the Republic is concerned. (And we can't dismiss the possibility that the Republic could come apart if Trump loses and claims fraud — and if the Russians succeed at hacking our electoral systems just enough for a good chunk of the country to buy his claim.)
Never in my life have I heard a candidate from either party say they're running for president just to be a placeholder for his vice presidential pick. NEVER!!! There's a reason why people were up in arms when Sanders suffered a heart attack and while Sanders would've been a much better debater than Biden at the moment, there was that what if moment, and I do believe that there had to be an age limit on who want's to be elected a US president and seeing an 80-year old, a 77-year old, and a 68-year old, all of them seniors mean that the Democrat party doesn't have any faith in it's younger candidates and that will cost them at least this decade.


Quote:
Originally Posted by MarketStEl View Post
Maybe the Senate needs reforming, but as a native of an interior state, I'm reluctant to dispense with the Electoral College too, for doing away with it means the coastal cities elect the President every time. What was that phrase — "the tyranny of the majority"? That's also a very real possibility.

I've filed your comments about the Wyoming Valley for future reference.

But I also need to chide you about that "the coronavirus doesn't count" statement. It was precisely his performance on the coronavirus along with the sudden slamming of the brakes on the economy that totally undercut the platform Trump hoped to run on, and in those daily news conferences, he gave more people each day reason to question his competence who hadn't done so before.

He now plans to resume the conferences. He needs to do this, but I'm popping popcorn in order to enjoy the show. I don't expect him to have learned anything from the first round, though his about-face on masks shows that I may be underestimating him there. That aside, however, he seems to be displaying all the character traits he has displayed for the first 3.5 years, the ones that his niece Mary dissects in her new book, and I don't expect him to be able to suppress them.
How does the US Senate need reforming, by getting rid of the filibuster??? I don't see that happening despite calls from the MSM saying we need to get rid of the Electoral College, the INS, the FBI, the CIA, and all that political crap that's being spewed everyday. Personally, I can't wait until Election Day comes so I can have a sip of my beer and enjoy what seems to be the beginning of the end of the modern-day Democrat party: the party of transgenders and illegal aliens and maybe, for once whatever's left of the Democrat party can become a more rational political party than just a party of vagrants.

The COVID-19 epidemic can't be solely blamed on Trump and if you're going to blame it on Trump, then you need to point the finger towards Gov Wolf, as well as Gov Cuomo, Gov Murphy, Gov Carney, Gov Lamont, Gov Whitmer, Gov Pritzker, Gov Newsome, and Mayor DeBlasio!

 
Old 07-27-2020, 07:24 PM
 
325 posts, read 361,853 times
Reputation: 655
I would have thought that York county would turn their back on Trump with that Dallastown native being killed in that Russian bounty scandal, but I’m sure I’ll be proven wrong in November.
 
Old 07-27-2020, 09:58 PM
 
Location: Germantown, Philadelphia
13,959 posts, read 8,825,433 times
Reputation: 10265
Quote:
Originally Posted by wanderer34 View Post
Even though Black Americans will still vote Democrat this upcoming election, I can still see Trump getting a portion of the black vote, at least 20-25% of it. A majority of black voters will stay home, practically double the amount that stayed home in 2016. I do see Trump edging Biden on the growing Latino vote and maybe the Asian vote, but back regarding the black vote: you just can't tell black voters, especially young, black male voters that if you don't vote Democrat, you ain't black and expect to win the black vote!!! (
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhcgmwj3NAc) I feel that outburst alone will cost him a chunk of the black vote alone, especially voters under 50!
I too believe Trump will take a larger share of the Black vote this time around, but 25 to 30 percent of it? I think you've been listening to a bit too much Candace Owens.

The under-50 (actually, under-40, IMO) crowd broke for Bernie, and Trump differs just enough from him to not lead them to vote for him; they will mostly either vote for Biden or stay home. And given just how white-hot Democratic opposition to Trump is, if they consider themselves Democrats still, that fever will spread to them. All the Berniecrats I know locally are planning to swallow hard and vote for Biden.



Quote:
I'm not under 30, but I'm younger than 50, and even though Biden has had his lion's share of gaffes, probably more than any modern-day candidate, like I said in my last paragraph, by tying black voters to the destiny of the Democrat Party is going to cost Biden big in the 2020 presidential election, especially when it comes to the black vote.
A lot of voters, black and white, are willing to discount Biden's gaffes because they know he is so prone to them.

Quote:
The only black voters who I see voting for Biden without any condition are the over 65 voters, especially considering that a majority saw the Civil Rights Movements either as teenagers or as younger adults and feel that since Biden is associated with the country's first Black president, than those over 65 voters feel that Biden deserves a chance as president.
I'm one of those children of the Civil Rights Movement and benefited greatly from its achievements. I'm 61. You know, we Blacks usually show great respect for our elders.

Quote:
Under 65 is a different ballgame, as many that are under 65 are still working age and either have to run businesses and at the same time raise families and the current trajectory of today's Democrat party isn't one for the family, but one of LGBT and the undocumented and since African Americans make up 90% of the black population in America and come from conservative backgrounds due to the black church, some of those voters are either going to sit this one out again or defect to either the GOP or any other third party, but in other words, the grip the Dems have on the black vote is starting to loosen up.
I know that African-Americans are generally culturally conservative, but the Right has been waiting for them to vote their morality for decades with no success, and the younger crowd is not only not trending Right but also more sympathetic to LGBT rights, and not just politically. Many more younger Blacks have come out to their culturally conservative parents, and I characterize the mainstream reaction from their parents as, "Well, we really wish you hadn't, but we love you anyway." Sheesh, I came out to my parents back in the late 1970s and didn't get read out of the family, though I know from some things my brother said that my Dad had a harder time with it than he let on to me.(But then he told me some years after he died that he was actually somewhat bisexual. Go figure.) And many younger Blacks count openly LGBT Blacks among their friends. That too will influence their politics.

Again, I'm under 65, and I have no intention of retiring anytime soon (in my line of work, as long as your brain functions and you can still string sentences together, old age doesn't remove you from the labor force).

I do think you have a point about the historic bond between African-Americans and Democrats loosening, but I don't think the ties are fraying so much right now that you will see a shift to the Right among them.





Quote:
I don't see Trump as a Putin sympathizer but as one who's a nationalist and a populist. In other words, it's pretty much every man for himself when it comes to foreign affairs, and since Trump is unpopular with globalist circles, I don't really see him trying to be fond with Putin nor aggressive.
"I had no knowledge of his putting a bounty on the heads of American soldiers in the Middle East."

That's not "sympathizing," that's criminally negligent. There's plenty of intelligence out there that Putin is meddling with our election again, and Trump has been completely mum on this. Again, that goes beyond "sympathizing."


Quote:
So what's Biden's political platform for the local economy, for foreign affairs, for immigration and national security, and for labor, for infrastructure, and for education??? If people are so pissed that they'll vote Trump out for a has-been who doesn't even seem coherent let alone competent and healthy enough to even last a term, then as a registered Democrat, I'll have to ride out this next four years of Trump the way I rid out the final four years or Bush Jr. If the sky is falling according to the MSM, let it fall, I have too much going on in my life to believe that Trump is the next heir apparent to Hitler and the Third Reich.
I should invoke Godwin's Law here but won't, especially since others in the anti-Trump camp have made the analogy.

You seem to have completely forgotten about the Republican NeverTrumpers, who have brought chunks of money to bear on the messages being sent out. They're about as ferociously anti-Trump as the Democrats are, and I'm pretty sure they won't stay home in November for the same reason most Democrats won't.



Quote:
Trump can win PA by not relying on Allegheny County or the five-county SE PA region. The Democrat party has tilted so far to the right that now it's unrecognizable as the party of the worker and the party of minorities and immigrants. Just because a party trots along a minority candidate doesn't mean it has good intentions for that voting base. Either come up with tangibles or we'll sit this race out, and if Biden can't come up with a female candidate that can rile up the female and minority bases, then stick a fork in 2020, I don't even see Biden winning his home state!!!
Now I'm sure you've been smoking something with that last sentence. Delaware elects Republicans, true, but not of the Trumpist variety; Democrats hold all four of the top statewide offices — Governor, Representative in Congress, both U.S. Senators — and Uncle Joe remains very popular in his home state. Every movement conservative who's sought statewide office in Delaware has failed to achieve it (the Du Ponts aren't "movement conservatives" but more in the Christie Whitman mold), and Trump has cast his lot with them.

None of the three candidates is in robust health, Trump's braggadocio to the contrary notwithstanding. The high interest in Biden's VP pick is because it will be a signal of a possible future for the party. Usually, Veep deliberations don't garner that much advance buzz.


Quote:
How does the US Senate need reforming, by getting rid of the filibuster??? I don't see that happening despite calls from the MSM saying we need to get rid of the Electoral College, the INS, the FBI, the CIA, and all that political crap that's being spewed everyday. Personally, I can't wait until Election Day comes so I can have a sip of my beer and enjoy what seems to be the beginning of the end of the modern-day Democrat party: the party of transgenders and illegal aliens and maybe, for once whatever's left of the Democrat party can become a more rational political party than just a party of vagrants.

The COVID-19 epidemic can't be solely blamed on Trump and if you're going to blame it on Trump, then you need to point the finger towards Gov Wolf, as well as Gov Cuomo, Gov Murphy, Gov Carney, Gov Lamont, Gov Whitmer, Gov Pritzker, Gov Newsome, and Mayor DeBlasio!
Second item first: I'm not blaming the pandemic on Trump; I'm blaming our flat-footed response to it on him. He wasted valuable time belittling it and calling it a "hoax" designed to hurt his re-election chances (talk about self-centered!) as it was becoming clear that SARS-CoV-2 would make it to these shores, and as he was doing that, there was already much talk of the need to implement measures to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed as happened in Italy (and it was that more virulent Italian strain that arrived on the East Coast, while the Pacific Coast got a less virulent strain from Asia first. The Italian strain has made its way across the country now, which is one reason why we're now seeing spikes in the Sunbelt and on the Pacific Coast again. The governors you mention at least took the threat seriously and moved to flatten the curves when the evidence suggested that would be necessary. And except in New York City, the curves did flatten.

No, none of those governors executed perfectly, either. But at least they executed and took responsibility. Trump did neither until it was too late, and he's still reluctant to take responsibility for any of his actions.

Now to the first item: Okay, so you don't like ***** folk. We're not going anywhere, and we're Black too. Get Used to It. Even Trump's two appointees to the Supreme Court voted in favor of an opinion the Chief Justice wrote that said that the sex-discrimination provisions of the Equal Employment Opportunity Act included sexual orientation.
 
Old 07-27-2020, 10:11 PM
 
Location: Boston Metrowest (via the Philly area)
7,249 posts, read 10,499,059 times
Reputation: 8758
Quote:
Originally Posted by HereToFarm View Post
But going back to the main topic, we've got a Defund the Police bill going through Pittsburgh City Council right now. The local media expects it to pass. Yes, this is indeed what the elected Democrats are pushing, and no, it's not going over well in my blue neighborhood. Sane people in both parties don't want to lose their police services. It's going to have an effect in November.
If people actually considered what is being advocated for rather than knee-jerk reactions (although I understand the term "defund" is a lightning rod), they'd be much more likely to be understanding and in agreement with these efforts.

Law enforcement is and will always be important. But accountability is too. And police also should never be expected to serve as a replacement for mental health, substance abuse and domestic abuse professionals. Larger police budgets have also never been a guarantee of less crime (Baltimore is a case-study example).

It's intellectually disingenuous to claim that it's a "far Left" issue and wouldn't resonate with standard, middle-of-the-road voters, and ridiculous to equate to abolishing the police. Reasonable people, and those who don't fall for GOP rhetoric, will understand why it's at least a critical conversation to have in the aftermath of some very socially challenging events.
 
Old 07-28-2020, 12:22 AM
 
56 posts, read 14,399 times
Reputation: 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by Duderino View Post
If people actually considered what is being advocated for rather than knee-jerk reactions (although I understand the term "defund" is a lightning rod), they'd be much more likely to be understanding and in agreement with these efforts.

Law enforcement is and will always be important. But accountability is too. And police also should never be expected to serve as a replacement for mental health, substance abuse and domestic abuse professionals. Larger police budgets have also never been a guarantee of less crime (Baltimore is a case-study example).

It's intellectually disingenuous to claim that it's a "far Left" issue and wouldn't resonate with standard, middle-of-the-road voters, and ridiculous to equate to abolishing the police. Reasonable people, and those who don't fall for GOP rhetoric, will understand why it's at least a critical conversation to have in the aftermath of some very socially challenging events.
Within the past year, Pittsburgh has had two tax hikes on top of the 3% income tax. The funding for parks in my neighborhood was stripped and will not be replaced until the late-2020s. Our schools are in bad shape. Our water bills are astronomical due to years of the city neglecting infrastructure. And now, on top of all this, City Council is trying to reduce our police services for no other reason than some other city a thousand miles away made bad decisions. We've been financially squeezed for years while city services decline, life has been severely disrupted because of COVID-19, and now we are being hectored into giving up the safety provided by our police department.

People. are. angry.

That tone deaf snark about "reasonable people" in your post is a great example why the Democrats are going to lose Pennsylvania in 2020. People are angry, people are scared, and, most of all, people are tired of being talked down to by the smug Democrats like you. Being concerned about police presence declining while there are waves of rioting across the country IS reasonable. Wanting the city to quit with the pandering and start fixing actual problems like the infrastructure and schools IS reasonable. If the Democrats can't understand that taking away police services during a stressful year and talking down to anyone who questions it is a losing platform, then they're in even worse shape than I originally thought.
 
Old 07-28-2020, 07:08 AM
 
Location: Atlanta
994 posts, read 496,202 times
Reputation: 588
Quote:
our post is a great example why the Democrats are going to lose Pennsylvania in 2020
Tone deaf?

People are outraged at trump, the most corrupt, incompetent, immoral and juvenile president of any of our lifetimes. He doesn't care about the pandemic and it needlessly made this worse.

He's taken the Southern Strategy to new depths and his push to sacrifice children, teachers and their families to open schools has only pissed off most parents.

Yeah, "going to lose Pennsylvania in 2020" indeed.

Next.

Last edited by Joe_P; 07-28-2020 at 08:22 AM..
 
Old 07-28-2020, 07:46 AM
 
Location: A coal patch in Pennsyltucky
10,275 posts, read 10,512,389 times
Reputation: 12571
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe_P View Post
Tone deaf?

People are outraged at trump, the most corrupt, incompetent, immoral and juvenile president of any of our lifetimes. He doesn't care about the pandemic and it needlessly made this worse.

He taken the Southern Strategy to new depths and his push to sacrifice children, teachers and their families to open schools has only pissed off most parents.

Yeah, "going to lose Pennsylvania in 2020" indeed.

Next.
Exactly! Trump will likely win many of the rural central PA counties, but he will lose big in SE PA, all the larger cities, most of the SW part of the state, and Centre, Union, Cumberland, Dauphin, Lancaster, Indiana, and Erie counties.
 
Old 07-28-2020, 08:20 AM
 
Location: Emmaus, PA
3,859 posts, read 3,029,584 times
Reputation: 2806
He BETTER not win Lehigh County.
I also believe that he will go down in the history books as one of THE worst Presidents that this country has ever had - really near the bottom.
 
Old 07-28-2020, 09:01 AM
 
Location: A coal patch in Pennsyltucky
10,275 posts, read 10,512,389 times
Reputation: 12571
Quote:
Originally Posted by John F S View Post
He BETTER not win Lehigh County.
I also believe that he will go down in the history books as one of THE worst Presidents that this country has ever had - really near the bottom.
He will be battling James Buchanan as the worst in history. It could be a close battle!
 
Old 07-28-2020, 09:19 AM
 
Location: Boston Metrowest (via the Philly area)
7,249 posts, read 10,499,059 times
Reputation: 8758
Quote:
Originally Posted by HereToFarm View Post
Within the past year, Pittsburgh has had two tax hikes on top of the 3% income tax. The funding for parks in my neighborhood was stripped and will not be replaced until the late-2020s. Our schools are in bad shape. Our water bills are astronomical due to years of the city neglecting infrastructure. And now, on top of all this, City Council is trying to reduce our police services for no other reason than some other city a thousand miles away made bad decisions. We've been financially squeezed for years while city services decline, life has been severely disrupted because of COVID-19, and now we are being hectored into giving up the safety provided by our police department.

People. are. angry.
This is an issue much bigger than the Pittsburgh police department; there are systemic issues with policing in every major city in this country that have long predated George Floyd. And don't forget that anger most definitely cuts both ways. The status quo is NOT acceptable and if you don't like hearing that, that's just tough ****.


Quote:
Originally Posted by HereToFarm View Post
That tone deaf snark about "reasonable people" in your post is a great example why the Democrats are going to lose Pennsylvania in 2020. People are angry, people are scared, and, most of all, people are tired of being talked down to by the smug Democrats like you. Being concerned about police presence declining while there are waves of rioting across the country IS reasonable. Wanting the city to quit with the pandering and start fixing actual problems like the infrastructure and schools IS reasonable. If the Democrats can't understand that taking away police services during a stressful year and talking down to anyone who questions it is a losing platform, then they're in even worse shape than I originally thought.
For the record, I'm an Independent. Frankly, you can check your anger at the door, because rage against systemic racism and people who protect the status quo has been boiling for decades. Again, the fundamental issues in our country go far beyond riot control and infrastructure.

Right now, our country is being run by a woefully incompetent, right-wing narcissist, and it's poisoning our political system right down to the local level. How's that for "tone deaf"?

We have FAILED leadership in the Oval Office. And the only party that stands to lose right now is the one at the helm.
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