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And Pennsylvania, like most states, does continue to become more politically polarized in geographic terms, but there's more nuance to it than Southeast versus Western PA. It's essentially metropolitan Pennsylvania versus semi-rural/rural Pennsylvania.
I've long maintained that the most salient divide in our politics is not red-state/blue-state, left/right, black/white or any of the others, but urban/rural.
I grew up in a state that was heavily Democratic in both its cities and its rural precincts. Missouri is now deeply Republican — except in its two large cities, Kansas City and St. Louis.
The difference between Missouri and Pennsylvania as of now is: the suburbs of Missouri's two big cities vote like the rural counties do, not like the cities do.* Here in Pennsylvania, in particular in the Southeast but also in Allegheny County, the suburbs vote like the cities now where once they didn't.
*Kansas City votes Democratic mainly because the bulk of the city's population still resides in Jackson County. Its north-of-the-river suburban districts in Clay and Platte counties are more conservative, like suburban St. Louis County.
Interesting. My sense is that just as rural areas swung (even more) to the GOP in 2016, this year is going to go down as the election with record suburban support for Democrats--not just around Philadelphia, but also inner-ring suburbs around Pittsburgh, the Lehigh Valley, Harrisburg, etc.
I've seen multiple polls, where if you dig deep into the crosstabs, Biden is winning college educated whites by a margin very similar to support for Trump among non-college educated whites, which is a major shift from 2016, when Hillary merely tied with that demographic. They're almost tied among whites overall, another significant shift that hasn't been seen for decades.
All this to say I don't think it will be a Biden "blowout" for sure, but more like a 2012-style Obama victory (5-6%).
And Pennsylvania, like most states, does continue to become more politically polarized in geographic terms, but there's more nuance to it than Southeast versus Western PA. It's essentially metropolitan Pennsylvania versus semi-rural/rural Pennsylvania.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarketStEl
I've long maintained that the most salient divide in our politics is not red-state/blue-state, left/right, black/white or any of the others, but urban/rural.
...
The difference between Missouri and Pennsylvania as of now is: the suburbs of Missouri's two big cities vote like the rural counties do, not like the cities do.* Here in Pennsylvania, in particular in the Southeast but also in Allegheny County, the suburbs vote like the cities now where once they didn't.
...
Yet I think you two are missing the nuances between major American cities and metros, nuances that are pronounced in a state like Pennsylvania. Consider this: Allegheny County (which compromises Pittsburgh proper and its inner suburbs) had a smaller margin in favor of Clinton than either Delaware or Montgomery counties.* To me that is pretty telling that it is not just metro vs semi-rural/rural determinant. Allegheny County is still quite attached to its Appalachian/"Rust Belt" history, a stark difference from Philadelphia.
*This is not to ignore how strongly the county came out for Democrats in the 2018 mid-term. But, I do think a metro like Pittsburgh is much more bellwether than a metro like Philadelphia.
Last edited by Muinteoir; 09-27-2020 at 08:46 AM..
I've long maintained that the most salient divide in our politics is not red-state/blue-state, left/right, black/white or any of the others, but urban/rural.
I grew up in a state that was heavily Democratic in both its cities and its rural precincts. Missouri is now deeply Republican — except in its two large cities, Kansas City and St. Louis.
The difference between Missouri and Pennsylvania as of now is: the suburbs of Missouri's two big cities vote like the rural counties do, not like the cities do.* Here in Pennsylvania, in particular in the Southeast but also in Allegheny County, the suburbs vote like the cities now where once they didn't.
*Kansas City votes Democratic mainly because the bulk of the city's population still resides in Jackson County. Its north-of-the-river suburban districts in Clay and Platte counties are more conservative, like suburban St. Louis County.
I don't disagree with you on the urban-rural divide in politics in general. But wouldn't you say in Pennsylvania it's actually distinctly more complex than that?
For example, by in large the urban and suburban nodes (sans Pittsburgh) in western PA are conservative and even more so trending that way. It's the opposite in the Southeast. Even in rural/suburban parts of Chester county I've seen giant Biden signs! I could be wrong but seems quite unlikely you'd see that in western PA (I'd love to be proven wrong).
If Trump wins PA and subsequently reelection, and it is widely believed that his winning reelection is solely the fault of Pennsylvania, I can imagine Pennsylvania will become a long running meme of Trump jokes and conservative stereotypes. This would surely sully the reputation of the state and we'll probably start seeing SNL sketches similar to the ones about Boston racists and Vermont white supremacists, but about Pennsylvania.
Voting for Trump twice would effectively make PA a solid red state in the eyes of the world, and that would make the state somewhat of an oddity, being the only red state located in the highly blue Northeast. This would no doubt garner disgust and ridicule from other Northeastern states. Imagine if Florida somehow at the same time votes blue. I think Pennsylvania for sure would become the new Florida. Even Texas reputation is slowly improving, all while PA's will only sink lower and lower.
Pennsylvania SHOULD BE PROUD to support Trump!! Why would PA want to become blue like socialist Virginia, for God's sake?
I don't disagree with you on the urban-rural divide in politics in general. But wouldn't you say in Pennsylvania it's actually distinctly more complex than that?
For example, by in large the urban and suburban nodes (sans Pittsburgh) in western PA are conservative and even more so trending that way. It's the opposite in the Southeast. Even in rural/suburban parts of Chester county I've seen giant Biden signs! I could be wrong but seems quite unlikely you'd see that in western PA (I'd love to be proven wrong).
I actually think you and Muinteoir have a point in your responses to me. Definitely, the "Land of the Forgotten" around Pittsburgh, and I suspect even some parts of Allegheny County itself, are not behaving like the suburbs around Philadelphia; this actually does, as Muinteoir notes, reflect the "East Coast" / "Appalachia" divide that is indeed another significant fault line in the state. (I've visited Pittsburgh twice. Both times, I was very aware I was no longer on the East Coast. I actually felt like I was a little more in the Midwest.)
But something I think we might want to watch are what one of the analysts on "Morning Joe" this morning called the "Obama-Trump voters." (Or, as I've called them, "Trump Democrats.") These are the voters who backed Obama twice, then swung to Trump. I think this crowd is less conservative than populist, and Trump's message was nothing if not strongly populist. (In many cases, it flew in the face of Republican orthodoxy too, and that in part animates the NeverTrumpers on the Right.)
As I noted somewhere upthread, one of those Trump Democrats, a Crawford County farmer, spoke at the DNC this year to explain why he wasn't voting for Trump again. The interesting thing was, he had figured out something a lot of farmers IMO still haven't: Trump's trade war has actually hurt their bottom lines, and the only reason more aren't feeling the pain is because Trump gave them welfare to make up for the hit.
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Originally Posted by anthony_c55
I don't see PA as comparable. Also, interesting that Ridge has come out for Biden.
What was it I was saying about Pennsylvanians tending to prefer centrists? I can't think of a better example than this right now.
One of the things I remember most about Ed Rendell's term as mayor of Philadelphia was what happened when negotiations to bring a major German shipbuilder, Meyer Werft, to the former Philadelphia Naval Shipyard blew up. Just about every Democratic politician in this city blasted Gov. Ridge for what they saw as his throwing a hissy fit that torpedoed the negotiations. But Rendell remained silent. My understanding of this was: There would no doubt be another occasion for a deal, and when it came along, he would need the support and assistance of the Governor to pull it off. And he could, and did, work with Tom Ridge when that occasion arose. (And I think Gov. Ridge took Rendell's silence in the same fashion.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by columbusboy8
Pennsylvania SHOULD BE PROUD to support Trump!! Why would PA want to become blue like socialist Virginia, for God's sake?
"Socialist Virginia"?
Yet again, further proof that Americans don't really know what socialism is. If Virginia is socialist, well, then, so is Pennsylvania.
My observation since moving to the Pittsburgh suburbs is that the brand of conservatism here is mostly of a libertarian nature. Most people could care less about what other people do in their homes and private lives, but are very much against overburdensome regulation and taxation. I made a "yard sign" observation recently on the Pittsburgh thread and from what I have seen the suburbs in Allegheny County are by and large favoring Biden. But once you cross the boarder to surrounding counties (Butler and Washington in my travels) the tide turns in favor of Trump. The municipality I am living in, about 9 miles south of the city (in Allegheny, but bordering Washington) voted for Obama in 2012 and went for Trump in 2016. These are the voters Trump needs to hold/Biden needs to get back to win the state.
Yet I think you two are missing the nuances between major American cities and metros, nuances that are pronounced in a state like Pennsylvania. Consider this: Allegheny County (which compromises Pittsburgh proper and its inner suburbs) had a smaller margin in favor of Clinton than either Delaware or Montgomery counties.* To me that is pretty telling that it is not just metro vs semi-rural/rural determinant. Allegheny County is still quite attached to its Appalachian/"Rust Belt" history, a stark difference from Philadelphia.
That's a fair point and MSE provided a great response as to how 2020 is a different animal than 2016.
I think at a fundamental level what you've pointed out can be explained by--without getting too technical--the phenomenon of metro area size: that is, the larger the metropolitan area, the greater the likelihood its residents will vote Democratic (the inverse would be true for Republican voting likelihood). There are exceptions of course nationally, but the rule tends to hold very true in Pennsylvania.
That being said, the "metropolitan effect" is still very much a factor in the Pittsburgh area, despite being a smaller metro than Philadelphia. Keep in mind that Clinton received a higher 2016 margin of victory in Allegheny than Obama did in 2012:
Again, all signs point to even more GOP attrition in the suburbs writ large to the Democrats in 2020, even in small-to-mid-sized metro areas. It will be fascinating to see what the end results are.
My observation since moving to the Pittsburgh suburbs is that the brand of conservatism here is mostly of a libertarian nature. Most people could care less about what other people do in their homes and private lives, but are very much against overburdensome regulation and taxation. I made a "yard sign" observation recently on the Pittsburgh thread and from what I have seen the suburbs in Allegheny County are by and large favoring Biden. But once you cross the boarder to surrounding counties (Butler and Washington in my travels) the tide turns in favor of Trump. The municipality I am living in, about 9 miles south of the city (in Allegheny, but bordering Washington) voted for Obama in 2012 and went for Trump in 2016. These are the voters Trump needs to hold/Biden needs to get back to win the state.
I think you are going to see a reversion back to the status quo ante in most of the suburbs in all parts of the state. I really believe counties like Berks, Erie, and Beaver are going to make the difference in 2020.
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