Philadelphia 2035 (Franklin: 2014, apartments, insurance)

[JamesJay64]

Philly is #8 of all cities when it comes to net gain of Gen Z - https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...n/11337814002/

We've gained more than NYC, Houston, Seattle, Charlotte, Tampa, Pittsburgh, and others. This great news for the future!

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by JamesJay64

Philly is #8 of all cities when it comes to net gain of Gen Z - https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...n/11337814002/

We've gained more than NYC, Houston, Seattle, Charlotte, Tampa, Pittsburgh, and others. This great news for the future!

Great to hear! Based on Census data, there's honestly never been a time in modern history that Philadelphia has done better at "brain gain" and attracting/retaining young talent than today. There's data showing that it even increased its advantage during the tumultuous time of the pandemic.

Demographically, there are challenges ahead for big cities to continue to draw on the young adult demographic, but Philadelphia is still hugely underestimated for how far it has come as a talent hub. And also for its relative economic stability and affordability. Those factors alone should help the city "weather the storm" much better than many others.

[thedirtypirate]

Philly’s population dropped for a second year in a row, census data show

Disappointing news, but not surprising. With consecutive loses, Philly's population has dropped to the same level as 2014.

Newly released census estimates say Philly lost more than 22,000 residents between July 2021 and July 2022, a 1.4% drop andthe largest one-year decline since 1977

[Oh2Me]

Originally Posted by JamesJay64

Philly is #8 of all cities when it comes to net gain of Gen Z - https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...n/11337814002/

We've gained more than NYC, Houston, Seattle, Charlotte, Tampa, Pittsburgh, and others. This great news for the future!

Hopefully these new residents can catch all the breaks they can. Gen Z has been given a hard hand with student loans, cost of living increases, high housing costs, and the pandemic interrupting a lot of their educations. I’d like to see Philadelphia do more to offset these things for Gen Z and others. Ideally, getting rid of the city tax and providing a housing grant to help more buyers. If I could see more results from taxes, I’d be in favor but it’s time to stop investing in failed ideals and start prioritizing the future.

There was an article out earlier about how Gen Z are saying no to dating apps in favor of in person interactions. I don’t blame them for being over online relationships and for desiring real friends and lovers. Philadelphia is built for social engagement and there’s an endless number of places to eat, gather, and explore. Ideally this generation will establish some of their own traditions and businesses here in the city.

Hope they prosper professionally and personally here

[mphilly]

Originally Posted by thedirtypirate

Philly’s population dropped for a second year in a row, census data show

Disappointing news, but not surprising. With consecutive loses, Philly's population has dropped to the same level as 2014.

These numbers are always way off so I don’t know why they get so much attention from the press. Even last years decline was already revised down from 25,000 to 11,000.

[thedirtypirate]

Originally Posted by mphilly

These numbers are always way off so I don’t know why they get so much attention from the press. Even last years decline was already revised down from 25,000 to 11,000.

True, and that is a pretty big difference. I think the more underlying thing though is the city is moving in the wrong direction which is highly disappointing.

[JamesJay64]

Who knows if this is accurate at all. I've also seen this:

"Using an analysis of cell phone location data, the company examined where Americans have been moving during the pandemic.

They found that while Philadelphia steadily lost population during the first year and a half of the pandemic, the picture has been more mixed since mid-2021. Between April 2021 and April 2022, the city’s population grew by 0.8%, while Brooklyn, Chicago and San Francisco have not experienced a single month of population increase since March 2020."

https://localtoday.news/ny/philly-at...hows-5778.html

[Duderino]

Not saying the Census estimates are worthless (they certainly are not precise). But they tend to much better at picking up on overall trends than pinpointing the actual level of population. They seem to be particularly bad at measuring population in large cities.

It's clear that Philadelphia was still suffering from above average domestic out-migration, higher-than-average deaths, and much lower than average international in-migration between April 2021 and 2022. The impacts of the pandemic were absolutely still being felt.

The issue is that a lot can shift even in one-year's time, yet here we are reacting to data that's already one-year old.

The clearest takeaway to me is that the US absolutely needs to greatly increase its immigration intake to pre-Trump levels, ASAP. They are the lifeblood of our big cities, especially such as Philadelphia.

But that being said, take these estimates with a bucket of salt. The Census estimates were embarrassingly wrong right before the 2020 actual, real physical Census. And there's no signs they're any more accurate now.

[JamesJay64]

Originally Posted by Duderino

Not saying the Census estimates are worthless (they certainly are not precise). But they tend to much better at picking up on overall trends than pinpointing the actual level of population. They seem to be particularly bad at measuring population in large cities.

It's clear that Philadelphia was still suffering from above average domestic out-migration, higher-than-average deaths, and much lower than average international in-migration between April 2021 and 2022. The impacts of the pandemic were absolutely still being felt.

The issue is that a lot can shift even in one-year's time, yet here we are reacting to data that's already one-year old.

The clearest takeaway to me is that the US absolutely needs to greatly increase its immigration intake to pre-Trump levels, ASAP. They are the lifeblood of our big cities, especially such as Philadelphia.

But that being said, take these estimates with a bucket of salt. The Census estimates were embarrassingly wrong right before the 2020 actual, real physical Census. And there's no signs they're any more accurate now.

Also, the biggest losers were Los Angeles County, California (-90,704); Cook County, Illinois (-68,314); Queens County, New York (-50,112); Kings County, New York (-46,970); and Bronx County, New York (-41,143).

This tells me that as usual, we are beholden to national trends. I didn't do the math but it looks like LA, Chicago, and NYC lost more, proportionally speaking. So I guess many people are still leaving big cities.

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by JamesJay64

Also, the biggest losers were Los Angeles County, California (-90,704); Cook County, Illinois (-68,314); Queens County, New York (-50,112); Kings County, New York (-46,970); and Bronx County, New York (-41,143).

This tells me that as usual, we are beholden to national trends. I didn't do the math but it looks like LA, Chicago, and NYC lost more, proportionally speaking. So I guess many people are still leaving big cities.

Yes, exactly. And honestly the most concerning type of loss to me is domestic out-migration. This refers to the average joe residents who've likely lived in a place for a while and have means to leave, taking tax dollars with them.

And digging into the numbers a little more, Philadelphia certainly is not an outlier for domestic out-migration (-32,528) compared to Chicago, NYC, Boston, Seattle, SF, LA, and DC. Counties in all of these metro areas are well represented at the bottom of the list. They are all on par or above Philadelphia on a per capita basis for domestic out-migration.

Even major "Sun Belt" cities like Miami, Houston and Dallas, all had sizable domestic out-migration: Miami-Dade County, FL (-38,203); Harris County, TX (-20,006); and Dallas County, TX (-20,245).