Official Greater Philadelphia Area Crime Thread (buying, school, shop)

[tintin19119]

I guess things are not getting better for some
Police identify cab driver shot dead in West Philadelphia

[tintin19119]

Home invasion.
40-year-old man pistol whipped in Olney home invasion | 6abc.com

[tintin19119]

Robbery and shooting
Suspects sought in Dollar General robbery, shooting | 6abc.com

[frankgn87]

Some one sent me this vid. So very sad to watch. Not one person helped this man against this thug.. This happens so much in the city


https://www.youtube.com/watch?featur...&v=6NmrT9Z67m4

[Go Philadelphia]

I don't doubt the validity of your statement regarding what your friends in the Philly PD say, but I also think their viewpoint is entirely dependent on the elements of society in which they deal with everyday. They have daily interactions with dangerous criminal elements in a highly charged atmosphere, the stress they deal with is high and I'm sure their view of the city is completely clouded by this fact.

I'm willing to bet that if you ask officers who patrol Chicago's Southside, or certain neighborhoods in the Bronx or Brooklyn, the officers would have similar sentiments of their respective cities.

If Philly is in shambles now, what was it 15-20 years ago? By most accounts, the city has been trending in a positive direction for a while now.

I don't think one should conclude that the "city is in shambles" on the accounts of officers who are in the worst neighborhoods dealing with the worst elements of society on a daily basis. Having said that, I also don't think one should judge the entire city based on the accounts of people who have never left Rittenhouse Square and other areas in and around Center City. The city is a mix of both good and bad, and in my opinion continues to grow and get better.

At the end of the day, this is true for pretty much every city in the country.

[frankgn87]

True.. I'm sure being a Philly Cop is no picnic

Originally Posted by Go Philadelphia

I don't doubt the validity of your statement regarding what your friends in the Philly PD say, but I also think their viewpoint is entirely dependent on the elements of society in which they deal with everyday. They have daily interactions with dangerous criminal elements in a highly charged atmosphere, the stress they deal with is high and I'm sure their view of the city is completely clouded by this fact.

I'm willing to bet that if you ask officers who patrol Chicago's Southside, or certain neighborhoods in the Bronx or Brooklyn, the officers would have similar sentiments of their respective cities.

If Philly is in shambles now, what was it 15-20 years ago? By most accounts, the city has been trending in a positive direction for a while now.

I don't think one should conclude that the "city is in shambles" on the accounts of officers who are in the worst neighborhoods dealing with the worst elements of society on a daily basis. Having said that, I also don't think one should judge the entire city based on the accounts of people who have never left Rittenhouse Square and other areas in and around Center City. The city is a mix of both good and bad, and in my opinion continues to grow and get better.

At the end of the day, this is true for pretty much every city in the country.

[Cnote11]

Originally Posted by frankgn87

I have quite a few Philly cop friends and they tell me that *MOST* of the crime that they see on a day to day basis never make the papers. Only a small amount the public ever hears about, They ALL say the city is in shambles.. All of em.

Every crime can't make the papers. There are 50-60,000 crimes a year. Logistically, that isn't all going to make it into the papers, nor should it really. My fiancee's purse got nicked, and we certainly didn't go running to the newspaper about it.

Of course, the projected amount of murders is still quite bad. The amount of crime in Philadelphia is still quite appalling. This doesn't mean that it isn't getting better. Things like crime, especially in America, do not get better overnight. It takes years, and right now we're in the middle of seeing consecutive drops in crime and a big drop in murders. That bodes well for the future of Philadelphia, ESPECIALLY in near West Philadelphia, near North Philadelphia, Southwest South Philadelphia, etc. If you look at the crime stats, major progress has been made in those places. The statistics are more impressive when broken down into area. The core of Philadelphia is getting stronger. Hopefully that can make the city better in the long run!

[Marius Pontmercy]

Originally Posted by Cnote11

One murder a day is certainly not par the course. If it were, we would have had 365+ murders in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. Philadelphia certainly did not have 365+ murders, nor did it even really come close. I think those days are behind the city. It isn't the per day murder statistic that is the most compelling anyway, but rather that you do not see a large deviation from the numbers. If you were projected at one murder a day, you'd expect to see near 365 murders plus or minus the typical margin; if you project .5 murders a day, you would expect to end up with 183 or so, + or - the margin; if you... well I think you get the idea. These things aren't random and there is a pattern you can easily see in every year. Behavior does not break from these patterns. If there is some spectacular breakout, there is nearly ALWAYS a regression to the mean. This is simple statistics 101 stuff. Therefore, you can expect the murders projected this year to be within a similar margin. I'm quite positive that if I got the statistics dating back to 1950 and what not, I would get the same thing.

All in all, we will probably still be here in January, an only then we can tell for certain. I certainly will eat crow if this is not the case, and I will be around the whole next year to check whether it was an anomaly or not.
As we inch closer and closer to the new year, 300 will get harder and harder to reach. We're nearly halfway through the year and yet not even 1/3 of the way to 300. I would not be surprised to see approx. 100 at the halfway point. 1/3 for 1/2 the year? Not bad in my opinion.

We had 330something or 320something in three of the last five years. That's not far off. Again, I think its little enough of a difference to not be indicative of any kind of trend.

[Cnote11]

Originally Posted by Marius Pontmercy

We had 330something or 320something in three of the last five years. That's not far off. Again, I think its little enough of a difference to not be indicative of any kind of trend.

Indeed we did. Here are the stats for the last two years

As of today
2011: 111 for .87 murders per day
2012: 117 for .91 murders per day
2013: 85 for .66 murders per day

That is a difference of 26 and 32 respectively.

Projections:
2011: 317
2012: 334
2013: 241

Actual
2011: 324
2012: 331

With the margin being +2.2% and -.9%

Again, it is the MARGIN that is compelling and not the actual amount of murders. Once again, you will need a 25% increase in murders to reach 300. This doesn't realistically happen. Yes, if we were already at 110, I would agree with you completely, because the numbers would suggest 300+. The final numbers always correspond with the projected numbers half-way through the year within a relatively small margin - ALWAYS. I can't imagine it changing this year. It very may well be back up to 300+ or 1.0 murders per day next year. This very well could be an anomaly of a year, but at this point I highly, highly doubt that it will be another "standard" year.

P.S. I hope I'm not coming off as "rude" or anything of the like. It is not my intent.

[RightonWalnut]

If Philadelphia continues at its current rate, this is what the year will finish with

Philadelphia: 245 - 1,536,471 - 15.95

I'm sure it may be slightly higher than this, but a very impressive change IMO. Hope it stays this way.