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Old 05-09-2013, 05:42 PM
 
Location: West Cedar Park, Philadelphia
1,225 posts, read 2,357,186 times
Reputation: 686

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Summersm343 View Post
If Philadelphia continues at its current rate, this is what the year will finish with

Philadelphia: 245 - 1,536,471 - 15.95

I'm sure it may be slightly higher than this, but a very impressive change IMO. Hope it stays this way.
Jan-Mar had a really low rate. There were only like 11 homicides during all of Feb or something like that. Last month the rate went back up to 1 per day and it appears to be staying there. We're about 10-15 bodies under the lowest two years. If the rate keeps pace with previous years as it has been then we might just come in under the 300 mark.

There are tens of thousands of thugs in this city who really really want to kill each other. The final tally is largely due to chance: how many of those thugs happen to be in the right places at the right times under the right circumstances.
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Old 05-09-2013, 08:20 PM
 
Location: Philadelphia
1,166 posts, read 1,365,616 times
Reputation: 444
Quote:
Originally Posted by Summersm343 View Post
If Philadelphia continues at its current rate, this is what the year will finish with

Philadelphia: 245 - 1,536,471 - 15.95

I'm sure it may be slightly higher than this, but a very impressive change IMO. Hope it stays this way.
What are the updated numbers for the core?
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Old 05-09-2013, 08:31 PM
 
Location: Philadelphia
1,166 posts, read 1,365,616 times
Reputation: 444
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marius Pontmercy View Post
Jan-Mar had a really low rate. There were only like 11 homicides during all of Feb or something like that. Last month the rate went back up to 1 per day and it appears to be staying there. We're about 10-15 bodies under the lowest two years. If the rate keeps pace with previous years as it has been then we might just come in under the 300 mark.

There are tens of thousands of thugs in this city who really really want to kill each other. The final tally is largely due to chance: how many of those thugs happen to be in the right places at the right times under the right circumstances.
There were 55 murders at the end of March. Now there are 84. Between March 31st and today there were 38 days. That is a difference of 29 murders in 38 days. That is only a .76 murder rate, or a .10 off from the total .66 rate. 29 over 38 days may seem close to one, but over a long course it certainly doesn't come close. We're talking about a difference of approximately 87 murders per year!

I'm hoping that the number will shock even myself at the end of the year!
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Old 05-11-2013, 11:30 AM
 
Location: Philadelphia
1,166 posts, read 1,365,616 times
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Well... 2009 has officially went over 100 murders, meaning that this year is the first time in at least 25 years that we were not over 100 murders at this point in the year. I believe it is, at most, the 4th time in over 40 years. I also stumbled upon this courtesy of JakeL from PhiladelphiaSpeaks.com, showing that the correlation between weather and homicide is not a strong one.

"The weather hypothesis that gets thrown out as a fact, but is based on nothing other than hunches. So I've taken 167 total days from the years 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007 for part of January and February and mapped out the daily homicides and high temperature for the day. The scatter plot is as follows:



The correlation coefficient of this is .05, which means that it's not even a slight correlation, there is no correlation whatsoever."
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Old 05-11-2013, 12:22 PM
 
Location: Philadelphia,PA
469 posts, read 837,649 times
Reputation: 204
South street!A robbery gone BAD.
Man Killed At A South Street Ice Cream Shop « CBS Philly
http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?se...cal&id=9098588
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Old 05-11-2013, 01:26 PM
 
Location: South Jersey
7,780 posts, read 19,898,142 times
Reputation: 2338
Quote:
Originally Posted by tintin19119 View Post
Why's an ice cream shop open at 3:30 am ?
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Old 05-11-2013, 02:23 PM
 
Location: Philadelphia
1,166 posts, read 1,365,616 times
Reputation: 444
Quote:
Originally Posted by frankgn87 View Post
Why's an ice cream shop open at 3:30 am ?
Perhaps they were robbing it when it was closed and someone came to investigate? No idea otherwise. Haagen-dazs isn't open at 3:30 AM, so. It closes at midnight.

Edit: I just read the second article. "Authorities say the victim was going to his apartment located above the shop."
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Old 05-11-2013, 03:16 PM
 
Location: back in Philadelphia!
3,260 posts, read 5,098,241 times
Reputation: 2072
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cnote11 View Post
Well... 2009 has officially went over 100 murders, meaning that this year is the first time in at least 25 years that we were not over 100 murders at this point in the year. I believe it is, at most, the 4th time in over 40 years. I also stumbled upon this courtesy of JakeL from PhiladelphiaSpeaks.com, showing that the correlation between weather and homicide is not a strong one.

"The weather hypothesis that gets thrown out as a fact, but is based on nothing other than hunches. So I've taken 167 total days from the years 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007 for part of January and February and mapped out the daily homicides and high temperature for the day. The scatter plot is as follows:



The correlation coefficient of this is .05, which means that it's not even a slight correlation, there is no correlation whatsoever."
So s/he used January & February data?

I think people usually relate the summer months (school's out) and generally nicer/warmer weather with higher crime rates. I think that to debunk that with any confidence, it would be better to include data from throughout the year.
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Old 05-11-2013, 04:07 PM
 
Location: Philadelphia, PA
8,700 posts, read 13,052,173 times
Reputation: 3621
Quote:
Originally Posted by frankgn87 View Post
Why's an ice cream shop open at 3:30 am ?
There's crack in the ice cream. Give me some!
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Old 05-11-2013, 04:40 PM
FBJ
 
Location: Tall Building down by the river
39,605 posts, read 54,172,673 times
Reputation: 9451
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cnote11 View Post
Perhaps they were robbing it when it was closed and someone came to investigate? No idea otherwise. Haagen-dazs isn't open at 3:30 AM, so. It closes at midnight.

Edit: I just read the second article. "Authorities say the victim was going to his apartment located above the shop."

That sounds more accurate because who the hell is buying ice cream at 3:45am?
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