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Old 05-08-2013, 03:32 PM
 
Location: Philadelphia
1,166 posts, read 1,365,437 times
Reputation: 444

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Summersm343 View Post
So far, there have been 84 murders, down from 116 this time last year.

Crime Statistics | Philadelphia Police Department
I'm going for an estimate of 260-280 with a small, but not insignificant chance of 235-260. Great improvement in this area and many others! I'm expecting a rise in murders in the summer, but if we have an end of the year similar to the beginning of the year, we could really see a record being set. There is a very, very small chance in my estimate, but there is a possibility that it is down nearer to 200.
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Old 05-08-2013, 06:41 PM
 
8,333 posts, read 19,189,442 times
Reputation: 3191
Quote:
Originally Posted by tintin19119 View Post
I`M not sure if having a knife put to your throat is serious enough for this forum,so I will apologize ahead of time.
Police: Woman pulls knife and gun in Crescentville carjacking
Crime committed with a knife can be just as deadly as a gun, both of which were used in the article. No apology necessary.
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Old 05-08-2013, 07:58 PM
 
Location: Philadelphia,PA
469 posts, read 837,545 times
Reputation: 204
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cnote11 View Post
I imagine shootings fall underneath the Philadelphia definition of Aggravated Assault with Firearm, like they do typically. If so, those are down 10%, and not all aggravated assaults with firearms would be shootings. Just putting that out there....

http://www.phillypolice.com/assets/U...WIDEWK-107.pdf
Wrong! but keep googling, I`M sure you will get it right. Some people posts from experience. I was born and raised in Philly,I have seen areas come full circle.This city has a problem with crime,just like other big cities.Trying to pretend it is not a problem,will not make it better.My own neighborhood had a rash of break ins last year. It never made the news,but letters were sent out warning us.Now we could have pretend it didn`t happen ,instead we started our town watch back up.That`s helping the city not pretending to people who want the truth that everything is ok.
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Old 05-08-2013, 08:28 PM
 
Location: Philadelphia
1,166 posts, read 1,365,437 times
Reputation: 444
Yes, the police statistics reporting shootings are indeed wrong because tintin says so. You're rather hopeless.
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Old 05-08-2013, 09:23 PM
 
Location: West Cedar Park, Philadelphia
1,225 posts, read 2,356,972 times
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We might go below 300 this year. I'm pretty conservative about these things because I generally expect the worst from people. The events leading up to a shooting can play out so differently depending on the situation the difference of 30-40 homicides year-over-year in this city can largely be chalked up to chance.
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Old 05-08-2013, 10:51 PM
 
Location: Philadelphia
1,166 posts, read 1,365,437 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marius Pontmercy View Post
We might go below 300 this year. I'm pretty conservative about these things because I generally expect the worst from people. The events leading up to a shooting can play out so differently depending on the situation the difference of 30-40 homicides year-over-year in this city can largely be chalked up to chance.
True, but I've smashed the numbers quite a bit and it is a very high percentage that it isn't cracking 300 unless something historical happens. Right now it is on pace for 239.5 with a murder rate of .66 per day. In order to reach 300, it would have to be .91 murders per day. Now, Philadelphia certainly has seen 1+ murders per day, but not since 2007. We're nearly halfway through the year with a .66. I doubt it'll spring up to .91 for the rest of the year. If we put the figure up to 1.0 for the remaining month of May and extended through June, July, and August before reverting back to .66--which in reality it probably will be less than that in the later months--it would look like this:

84 as of May 8th
175 as of September 1
41 to New Years

That would be exactly 300 murders.

The two years that are closest in recent history to this year comparison
Projected at current rate of May 8th
2009: 183 from May 8th to New Years for projected total of 282
2010: 185 for projected total of 285
2013: 156 for a project total of 240

Actual
2009: 203 for total of 302
2010: 206 for total of 306

Change from projected to actual
2009: 7.1% increase
2010: 7.4% increase

Taken at an 8% increase even for 2013, we would see approximately 259 murders. In order for it to reach 300, there would have to be a 25% increase, echoing the .91% per day number up from .66%.

25% doesn't happen very often, if ever. Looking at 2007-2012 percentage changes from projection to actual, we can see that the max was 7.5%, with one year being in the negative, and two other ones being around 2%. Again, unless this year somehow deviates from the mean, we will definitely be seeing a year under 300. 300 isn't impossible, but it doesn't seem very likely to me.
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Old 05-08-2013, 10:58 PM
 
Location: West Cedar Park, Philadelphia
1,225 posts, read 2,356,972 times
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One murder a day is par for the course in Philadelphia. I would not be surprised at all if that happened.
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Old 05-08-2013, 11:09 PM
 
Location: Philadelphia
1,166 posts, read 1,365,437 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marius Pontmercy View Post
One murder a day is par for the course in Philadelphia. I would not be surprised at all if that happened.
One murder a day is certainly not par the course. If it were, we would have had 365+ murders in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. Philadelphia certainly did not have 365+ murders, nor did it even really come close. I think those days are behind the city. It isn't the per day murder statistic that is the most compelling anyway, but rather that you do not see a large deviation from the numbers. If you were projected at one murder a day, you'd expect to see near 365 murders plus or minus the typical margin; if you project .5 murders a day, you would expect to end up with 183 or so, + or - the margin; if you... well I think you get the idea. These things aren't random and there is a pattern you can easily see in every year. Behavior does not break from these patterns. If there is some spectacular breakout, there is nearly ALWAYS a regression to the mean. This is simple statistics 101 stuff. Therefore, you can expect the murders projected this year to be within a similar margin. I'm quite positive that if I got the statistics dating back to 1950 and what not, I would get the same thing.

All in all, we will probably still be here in January, an only then we can tell for certain. I certainly will eat crow if this is not the case, and I will be around the whole next year to check whether it was an anomaly or not.
As we inch closer and closer to the new year, 300 will get harder and harder to reach. We're nearly halfway through the year and yet not even 1/3 of the way to 300. I would not be surprised to see approx. 100 at the halfway point. 1/3 for 1/2 the year? Not bad in my opinion.
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Old 05-09-2013, 04:28 AM
 
Location: South Jersey
7,780 posts, read 19,895,598 times
Reputation: 2338
Quote:
Originally Posted by tintin19119 View Post
Wrong! but keep googling, I`M sure you will get it right. Some people posts from experience. I was born and raised in Philly,I have seen areas come full circle.This city has a problem with crime,just like other big cities.Trying to pretend it is not a problem,will not make it better.My own neighborhood had a rash of break ins last year. It never made the news,but letters were sent out warning us.Now we could have pretend it didn`t happen ,instead we started our town watch back up.That`s helping the city not pretending to people who want the truth that everything is ok.

I have quite a few Philly cop friends and they tell me that *MOST* of the crime that they see on a day to day basis never make the papers. Only a small amount the public ever hears about, They ALL say the city is in shambles.. All of em.
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Old 05-09-2013, 05:10 AM
 
Location: Philadelphia,PA
469 posts, read 837,545 times
Reputation: 204
Quote:
Originally Posted by frankgn87 View Post
I have quite a few Philly cop friends and they tell me that *MOST* of the crime that they see on a day to day basis never make the papers. Only a small amount the public ever hears about, They ALL say the city is in shambles.. All of em.
You are dead on! We are dealing with people on here that have no ideal what is really going on with Philly.I said on this thread.Please talk with the police and ask them how things are really going.I have a cop in my family. Talk with an ER nurse and ask them about the shootings and stabbings, They deal with everyday.Talk with a fire Paramedic and ask them about the violent calls they deal with.As long as some of us will keep their head in the sand nothing well change.
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