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Old 05-29-2013, 12:48 AM
 
Location: Philadelphia, PA
8,700 posts, read 14,612,328 times
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Philadelphia is at 94, down from 141 this time last year.

Any news on some of the other high crime areas in the metro? Camden? Chester? Wilmington? Atlantic City? Norristown?

 
Old 05-29-2013, 01:22 AM
 
Location: Philadelphia
1,166 posts, read 1,507,100 times
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Indeed, down 42% from 2007 and 31% drop from last year. There have only been 7 murders in the last two weeks and 14 in the entire last month (30 days). So much for that 1.0 per day that was hypothesized... The total murders at this rate would be 230, which would make a 31% drop from last year. Notice how that is the same percentage as the current drop as of today. That means that the rate of murders last year from now until the end of the year stayed steady, with one of two possibilities

A) Increase in murders in summer, fall, or winter, with a decline in those that did not see the increase in order to average it back out
or
B) Murder rate stays steady throughout the year

From all the data, I can conclude that it appears to be B

The drop from 2007 would be at 41%. Notice how that's nearly identical to the current drop of 42%... I'm sure you've all gotten the picture that I've been banging on about for 4 months. If one were to go back to the old thread when I began posting about murder statistics in early February you can see that I said the worst case scenario would be 279. With 217 days left in the year, even a murder rate of .85 per day would put us underneath that figure. This comes as no shock to me because statistical trends are a serious thing and not some mystical aberration.
 
Old 05-29-2013, 01:32 AM
 
Location: Philadelphia
1,166 posts, read 1,507,100 times
Reputation: 445
Quote:
Originally Posted by Summersm343 View Post
Philadelphia is at 94, down from 141 this time last year.

Any news on some of the other high crime areas in the metro? Camden? Chester? Wilmington? Atlantic City? Norristown?
Here is some info on Camden

"Two more murders in Camden, N.J., late Wednesday into Thursday morning pushed the 2013 total to 17, exactly the same number of slayings in 2012 through May 9.

In 2012, 67 people were murdered, marking the deadliest year on record for one of America's most violent cities."

I can't find any statistics at the moment on the murders, but I am sceptical about it reaching 67. Seems like more an anomaly than anything but going from 27 murders in 1999, which is still bad per capita, to 67 in 2012, which is really bad per capita, is not a good direction. Still, the numbers were in the 30s for both 2009 and 2010. (47 in 2011) Camden murders are a tough one to pin down at first glance. The murder rates almost seem cyclic in the last decade.

As for their other crime categories, I'm sceptical about any change whatsoever.
 
Old 05-29-2013, 01:45 AM
 
Location: Philadelphia
1,166 posts, read 1,507,100 times
Reputation: 445
Quote:
Originally Posted by Summersm343 View Post
Philadelphia is at 94, down from 141 this time last year.

Any news on some of the other high crime areas in the metro? Camden? Chester? Wilmington? Atlantic City? Norristown?
As of 5/23, Chester had 3 murders if the source is to be believed The last figure I can find was 2011 with 21 for the entire year. The lowest it has been that I can find is 9 in 1999. This year would come out at a lower murder count if continued at this rate. Nothing on crime, but again I'm sceptical, even though 3 murders seems like an amazing decrease... but I can't tell anything from that. Not finding anything for AC, Norristown, or Wilmington at the moment.

Last edited by Cnote11; 05-29-2013 at 01:53 AM..
 
Old 05-29-2013, 07:41 AM
 
Location: Philadelphia, PA
4,453 posts, read 3,981,806 times
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Aren't we having an abnormally cold year (so far) as well though?
 
Old 05-29-2013, 09:09 AM
 
Location: back in Philadelphia!
3,263 posts, read 5,623,357 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeNigh View Post
Aren't we having an abnormally cold year (so far) as well though?
It has been a very cold year vs last year, this is true. Not to throw a wrench into the whole experiment...
 
Old 05-29-2013, 01:46 PM
 
Location: Philadelphia
1,166 posts, read 1,507,100 times
Reputation: 445
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeNigh View Post
Aren't we having an abnormally cold year (so far) as well though?
Average Highs year to year
Jan 40
Feb 43
March 53
April 64
May 74

2012
Jan 45
Feb 47
March 60
April 65
May 76

2013
Jan 41
Feb 40
March 48
April 63
May 71

"Mean average" 2012
Jan 37
February 40
Mach 51
April 54
May 67

"Mean average" 2013
Jan 35
Feb 33
March 39
April 53
May 61

Temperature
2012
Max/Avg/Min
Max Temperature 91 °F 58 °F 27 °F
Mean Temperature 80 °F 49 °F 20 °F
Min Temperature 70 °F 40 °F 12 °F
2013
Max Temperature 88 °F 52 °F 19 °F
Mean Temperature 78 °F 44 °F 14 °F
Min Temperature 69 °F 36 °F 10 °F

FYI, all of this data? Irrelevant. You're implying that weather matters in the case of murders. Once again... I will go to my statistics.
Murders by year by month
January 2011/2012: 33/33
June 2011/2012: 28/34
July 2011/2012: 31/23
August 2011/2012: 17/29
October 2011/2012 38/25
November 2011/2012: 23/17
December 2011/2012 24/30

January in both years was greater than the amount of murders June, July, and August.
October is higher than the summer months
December both years registered higher than many of the summer months and December 2012 even more still.

I hope you're getting the picture.

If the "mean average" temperature in January of 2012 was 37 and 40 in February, and you had 54 murders in 2012 by the end of February, then one would have to explain how temperatures of 53 and 61 in 2013 in March and April wouldn't grab the same numbers. Instead, there have only been 41 murders in the time period of April and May. In 2011 the amount of murders by the end of February was 61, and those temperatures were 28 degrees for January and 42 for February. Similarly, 79 degrees for July and 76 degrees for August in 2012 produced 52 murders. In 2011, 81 for July and 74 for August produced 48 murders.

Last edited by Cnote11; 05-29-2013 at 01:58 PM..
 
Old 05-29-2013, 02:01 PM
 
Location: Philadelphia
1,166 posts, read 1,507,100 times
Reputation: 445
FYI, the numbers from 2010/2011 up to today
2010
Max Temperature 90 °F 55 °F 19 °F
Mean Temperature 80 °F 46 °F 17 °F
Min Temperature 72 °F 38 °F 12 °F
2011
Max Temperature 90 °F 54 °F 21 °F
Mean Temperature 76 °F 45 °F 13 °F
Min Temperature 69 °F 36 °F 1 °F
Here is 2013 again
Max Temperature 88 °F 52 °F 19 °F
Mean Temperature 78 °F 44 °F 14 °F
Min Temperature 69 °F 36 °F 10 °F

Abnormally cold? Based on these numbers, I think not. I hope I can trust this weather data to be accurate. I will go through later and parse it all out by hand to make sure that it is.
 
Old 05-29-2013, 05:51 PM
FBJ
 
Location: Tall Building down by the river
39,605 posts, read 58,797,374 times
Reputation: 9451
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cnote11 View Post
Average Highs year to year
Jan 40
Feb 43
March 53
April 64
May 74

2012
Jan 45
Feb 47
March 60
April 65
May 76

2013
Jan 41
Feb 40
March 48
April 63
May 71

"Mean average" 2012
Jan 37
February 40
Mach 51
April 54
May 67

"Mean average" 2013
Jan 35
Feb 33
March 39
April 53
May 61

Temperature
2012
Max/Avg/Min
Max Temperature 91 °F 58 °F 27 °F
Mean Temperature 80 °F 49 °F 20 °F
Min Temperature 70 °F 40 °F 12 °F
2013
Max Temperature 88 °F 52 °F 19 °F
Mean Temperature 78 °F 44 °F 14 °F
Min Temperature 69 °F 36 °F 10 °F

FYI, all of this data? Irrelevant. You're implying that weather matters in the case of murders. Once again... I will go to my statistics.
Murders by year by month
January 2011/2012: 33/33
June 2011/2012: 28/34
July 2011/2012: 31/23
August 2011/2012: 17/29
October 2011/2012 38/25
November 2011/2012: 23/17
December 2011/2012 24/30

January in both years was greater than the amount of murders June, July, and August.
October is higher than the summer months
December both years registered higher than many of the summer months and December 2012 even more still.

I hope you're getting the picture.

If the "mean average" temperature in January of 2012 was 37 and 40 in February, and you had 54 murders in 2012 by the end of February, then one would have to explain how temperatures of 53 and 61 in 2013 in March and April wouldn't grab the same numbers. Instead, there have only been 41 murders in the time period of April and May. In 2011 the amount of murders by the end of February was 61, and those temperatures were 28 degrees for January and 42 for February. Similarly, 79 degrees for July and 76 degrees for August in 2012 produced 52 murders. In 2011, 81 for July and 74 for August produced 48 murders.


Do you honestly believe those are accurate numbers?
 
Old 05-29-2013, 09:39 PM
 
Location: Philadelphia
1,166 posts, read 1,507,100 times
Reputation: 445
Quote:
Originally Posted by WestPhillyDude75 View Post
Do you honestly believe those are accurate numbers?
Are you claiming a weather conspiracy? Or perhaps that gays are trying to delude us so they can take over the country? Or are you trying to say that there is a worldwide conspiracy to trick the public into thinking crime numbers are going down globally?
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