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Old 03-28-2016, 06:20 PM
 
Location: Dude...., I'm right here
1,241 posts, read 798,194 times
Reputation: 731

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You've painted a very rosy picture of Philly. It's true that the city will continue to get better but so will the rest of the country. However, some areas are growing faster than Philly.

I think the jury is still out on the future prospects of millennials, but it looks like they are poised to do worse than the previous generations. Mainly because of stagnant wages and high student debt. This is being attributed to the rise of the sharing economy because they can't afford much.

If I were a 20 something year old student I'd be more concerned about my future than the future of my city. The world is fast changing and those who are poised to benefit the most are those who are adaptable. Don't hedge all your bets on Philly, the world is your playground.

I've made it clear to my teenage kids that while they live in what I consider as a great country and a city with lots of opportunities, they are global citizens and they should not limit themselves to any geographic location. Personally, I've had to move several times and if I had to move again, I would do it.


Quote:
Originally Posted by PhillyPhan95 View Post
I'm not worried that Philly is growing relatively slowly compared to other regions as I believe we have more quality growth happening. Between 2000 and 2014 Philly had the second largest percentage of growth among young people with college degrees, second only to San Diego. Philly doesn't tend to do well in %change comparisons because its already much larger than most places. We experienced a lot of out-migration, but many of the people leaving are not as educated as the people that are replacing them. The lastest figures show Philadelphia remaining a popular place for immigrants, which IMO is always a good thing.

The foundations here are very solid and I can imagine over the years Philly will become an increasingly attractive place to do business. I believe in the future more employers will want to be near an educated workforce in cities that have excellent regional rail access, which are things that Philly exceeds in. I truly believe the high cost of building rail lines these days in addition to the cookie-cutter nature of western suburbs will prevent cities like Houston from growing as strongly later in the 21st century. Young people want to be able to walk places nowadays and want to rent or longer before they move into homes. This is a good sign for our multifamily market as I frankly don't see that trend going away any time soon in an increasingly mobile world. Since we are good at attracting young educated people, when they grow up they're likely going to want to stay in the region at least, and hopefully more so in the city, further fueling single family infill construction that has been booming recently. As thedirtypirate said, schools are absolutely key for keeping young people in the city when they want to start a family. If I were a parent, there's only a few schools in the city I would be comfortable sending my children too (e.g Penn Alexander for K-8 and Central or Masterman for high school).


Overall, people should be optimistic about the city and region's future. I certainly am. It appears that we've weathered the storm of deindustrialization in the U.S. and are poised to shift to an economy based on innovation, education, and professional services. Philadelphia has been a bastion of stability in the 20th and now 21st century, never growing as fast during booms and never falling as far during busts. Philadelphia has very quietly positioned itself for some solid years ahead. It's unique and authentic, and I think its best days are still ahead of it.
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Old 03-28-2016, 08:07 PM
 
283 posts, read 366,892 times
Reputation: 314
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1ondoner View Post
If I were a 20 something year old student I'd be more concerned about my future than the future of my city. The world is fast changing and those who are poised to benefit the most are those who are adaptable. Don't hedge all your bets on Philly, the world is your playground.
Well as a 20 year old student looking to get into urban commercial real estate I suppose my own future and the future of the city could indeed be intertwined (if I end up staying here... which I'd like to but as you suggested I'm certainly not married to the city). I was pointing out that the fundamentals of the Philadelphia market are IMO strong. Put simply, the urbanity of Philly combined with its relatively low COL are its greatest attributes moving forward. Philly does have an adaptability problem, but the underlying infrastructure (physical and social) is closer to that of NYC, Chicago, Boston, etc. (globally elite cities) than it is to places that are growing faster even though they are about the same size (see Houston, Phoenix). To be sure, growth rate isn't necessarily the best indicator of success or quality. Philly has intangible qualities those cities could only dream of and tangible qualities that are cost prohibitive (like subways) in those markets because the build environment doesn't allow for the high density required to build them. They'd have to restart completely. Sure one can say that "the verdict is TBD" on whether or not young people will continue to prefer the city, but IMO changing technologies that allow people to "live smaller," the growing preference for biking/walking and sustainability will only continue (perhaps increasingly so) to make urban environments preferable to people for the foreseeable future. Growth fuels more growth which fuels more growth and since we're growing again... well that's good. I don't mean to say everything I've said will come true, but I do think there is certainly reason to be optimistic. The politics certainly need to change to make growth come about faster.
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Old 03-28-2016, 09:24 PM
 
Location: Dude...., I'm right here
1,241 posts, read 798,194 times
Reputation: 731
The city needs to promote itself as a hub for something. When one thinks of Philly, one should have an image of a one or two prominent industries that represent the city. NYC will always be the undisputed financial capital of the world because of NASDAQ and NYSE. May be Philly can act as a back office for New York by attracting IT firms that service the financial markets. I don't see how the city can compete in the financial markets with NYC.

Outside NY, which cities does Philly need to compete with? Which major companies are moving into the area? IMHO, I don't think Philly area can hack it as a logistics hub mainly because of the poor roads network in this region. Unless the intention is to use the railway network (of which I know nothing about).

Alternatively, they could tap into expanding the city into high rise high density residential metro attracting urbanites who want to live in the city and work in the suburbs/exburbs.

Like I said, in my mind, I'm optimistic about the future of the city but this is mainly because the US economy is on a uptick. However, other cities are also growing at a faster pace.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PhillyPhan95 View Post
Well as a 20 year old student looking to get into urban commercial real estate I suppose my own future and the future of the city could indeed be intertwined (if I end up staying here... which I'd like to but as you suggested I'm certainly not married to the city). I was pointing out that the fundamentals of the Philadelphia market are IMO strong. Put simply, the urbanity of Philly combined with its relatively low COL are its greatest attributes moving forward. Philly does have an adaptability problem, but the underlying infrastructure (physical and social) is closer to that of NYC, Chicago, Boston, etc. (globally elite cities) than it is to places that are growing faster even though they are about the same size (see Houston, Phoenix). To be sure, growth rate isn't necessarily the best indicator of success or quality. Philly has intangible qualities those cities could only dream of and tangible qualities that are cost prohibitive (like subways) in those markets because the build environment doesn't allow for the high density required to build them. They'd have to restart completely. Sure one can say that "the verdict is TBD" on whether or not young people will continue to prefer the city, but IMO changing technologies that allow people to "live smaller," the growing preference for biking/walking and sustainability will only continue (perhaps increasingly so) to make urban environments preferable to people for the foreseeable future. Growth fuels more growth which fuels more growth and since we're growing again... well that's good. I don't mean to say everything I've said will come true, but I do think there is certainly reason to be optimistic. The politics certainly need to change to make growth come about faster.
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Old 03-28-2016, 10:52 PM
 
Location: The City of Brotherly Love
1,142 posts, read 811,104 times
Reputation: 2860
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhillyPhan95 View Post
Well as a 20 year old student looking to get into urban commercial real estate I suppose my own future and the future of the city could indeed be intertwined (if I end up staying here... which I'd like to but as you suggested I'm certainly not married to the city). I was pointing out that the fundamentals of the Philadelphia market are IMO strong. Put simply, the urbanity of Philly combined with its relatively low COL are its greatest attributes moving forward. Philly does have an adaptability problem, but the underlying infrastructure (physical and social) is closer to that of NYC, Chicago, Boston, etc. (globally elite cities) than it is to places that are growing faster even though they are about the same size (see Houston, Phoenix). To be sure, growth rate isn't necessarily the best indicator of success or quality. Philly has intangible qualities those cities could only dream of and tangible qualities that are cost prohibitive (like subways) in those markets because the build environment doesn't allow for the high density required to build them. They'd have to restart completely. Sure one can say that "the verdict is TBD" on whether or not young people will continue to prefer the city, but IMO changing technologies that allow people to "live smaller," the growing preference for biking/walking and sustainability will only continue (perhaps increasingly so) to make urban environments preferable to people for the foreseeable future. Growth fuels more growth which fuels more growth and since we're growing again... well that's good. I don't mean to say everything I've said will come true, but I do think there is certainly reason to be optimistic. The politics certainly need to change to make growth come about faster.
There are so many similarities between us that it is almost scary! Besides similar screen names, I am also a 20 year old college student who wants to get into real estate (although, I'm open to commercial, residential, mixed-use, and hospitality). I am transferring to Temple next semester because I decided that I want to establish myself among Philadelphia's business community using the connections that I have already made in the Lehigh Valley. There is no other city I can see myself living in after graduating college.
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Old 03-28-2016, 10:54 PM
 
Location: The City of Brotherly Love
1,142 posts, read 811,104 times
Reputation: 2860
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1ondoner View Post
The city needs to promote itself as a hub for something. When one thinks of Philly, one should have an image of a one or two prominent industries that represent the city. NYC will always be the undisputed financial capital of the world because of NASDAQ and NYSE. May be Philly can act as a back office for New York by attracting IT firms that service the financial markets. I don't see how the city can compete in the financial markets with NYC.

Outside NY, which cities does Philly need to compete with? Which major companies are moving into the area? IMHO, I don't think Philly area can hack it as a logistics hub mainly because of the poor roads network in this region. Unless the intention is to use the railway network (of which I know nothing about).

Alternatively, they could tap into expanding the city into high rise high density residential metro attracting urbanites who want to live in the city and work in the suburbs/exburbs.

Like I said, in my mind, I'm optimistic about the future of the city but this is mainly because the US economy is on a uptick. However, other cities are also growing at a faster pace.
I absolutely get what you are saying and agree with you, but I can already think of two big industries related to Philly: eds and meds, and finance.
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Old 03-29-2016, 10:15 AM
 
Location: Dude...., I'm right here
1,241 posts, read 798,194 times
Reputation: 731
The area is well known for colleges. Medicine/medical, not so much. I think other cities come to mind when it comes to medicine. Houston, Cleveland, Raleigh-Durham, to name a few.

If feels like the politicians, local govt does very little to promote the State. PA is mostly known for it's blue collar demographic in Scranton during the elections cycle. I don't even know my Governor or Senator. Do they even exist?


Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilliesPhan2013 View Post
I absolutely get what you are saying and agree with you, but I can already think of two big industries related to Philly: eds and meds, and finance.
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Old 03-29-2016, 12:45 PM
 
Location: Philadelphia, PA
2,377 posts, read 2,695,391 times
Reputation: 1492
In 20 years I would expect at least one thing everyone would think was impossible. IE: a new subway line, international grade high speed rail, 30th station cap, 676 cap, super talls in nolibs etc.

Otherwise it'll keep on accelerating, a few more super talls and critical mass as a premier urban living city. 20 years is a long time at the rate things are going now.
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Old 03-30-2016, 06:24 AM
 
10,265 posts, read 5,934,396 times
Reputation: 3628
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1ondoner View Post
The area is well known for colleges. Medicine/medical, not so much. I think other cities come to mind when it comes to medicine. Houston, Cleveland, Raleigh-Durham, to name a few.

If feels like the politicians, local govt does very little to promote the State. PA is mostly known for it's blue collar demographic in Scranton during the elections cycle. I don't even know my Governor or Senator. Do they even exist?
Institutionally, and as an example of the importance of Phila. medicine, CHOP is one of the finest pediatric facilities in the world. What exactly matches it in Raleigh-Durham? Your statement also implies that you have no idea that American medicine was essentially created in Philadelphia. Penn's Perelman School of Medicine was the first medical school in the American colonies and is still one of the finest medical schools in the country. Pennsylvania Hospital was the first hospital in the country.

So you don't vote in elections it seems. But, imo, there's no excuse for an educated guy like you not knowing who the PA governor is or who the PA senators are. Pat Toomey may lose in November and you can bet your ass Republicans care whether he does.
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Old 03-30-2016, 06:27 AM
 
10,265 posts, read 5,934,396 times
Reputation: 3628
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeNigh View Post
In 20 years I would expect at least one thing everyone would think was impossible. IE: a new subway line, international grade high speed rail, 30th station cap, 676 cap, super talls in nolibs etc.

Otherwise it'll keep on accelerating, a few more super talls and critical mass as a premier urban living city. 20 years is a long time at the rate things are going now.
There may be an expansion of the BSL to Navy Yard. There may even be the NHL extension to KoP. Those I can believe.
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Old 03-31-2016, 07:12 AM
 
236 posts, read 248,110 times
Reputation: 245
This may be too out in left field for people, but I believe sometime in the next 20 years I think we'll see Camden showing signs of gentrification.
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