Philly's population in 2030 (Philadelphia, York, Montgomery: transplants, 2013, moving)

[KoNgFooCj]

How do you think Philly will grow in the 2020s, year by year roughly? Or what factors will affect said growth?

http://worldpopulationreview.com/us-...ia-population/
Philly's been growing by about 3,800 people the last 2 years, and between 5,000-7,500 a year from 2013-2016.
I imagine Philly will continue to grow by at least it's current rate. Is this too optimistic or are there enough transplants from New York to keep Philly growing?

[SteelCityRising]

I think Philadelphia will grow by 3,500 people per year, on average, through the 2020's. I base this upon absolutely nothing.

[cpomp]

I don't see an acceleration anytime soon, the 1.6M mark will certainly happen though. It would be awesome if Philadelphia were to inch closer to 2M one day.

I would also like to see Montgomery County hit 1M people eventually too.

[banjozac]

Most of the growth is in the birthrate, unfortunately. There are folks moving here from New York, sure, but there are plenty leaving Philly for other places too.

[rowhomecity]

I think the pace of migration is only going to intensify in 2020s.

I see the city between 1.7 Million - 1.72 Million by 2030.

We are nearly at 1.6 Million for 2020 (if not past). And grew by about 70k residents the last decade. I see the city increasing its growth to 100k residents in the 2020s.

[kyb01]

Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj

How do you think Philly will grow in the 2020s, year by year roughly? Or what factors will affect said growth?

http://worldpopulationreview.com/us-...ia-population/
Philly's been growing by about 3,800 people the last 2 years, and between 5,000-7,500 a year from 2013-2016.
I imagine Philly will continue to grow by at least it's current rate. Is this too optimistic or are there enough transplants from New York to keep Philly growing?

I guess there aren't any small children where you are because I have seen a steady increase of them in the city over the last few years. We don't necessarily need transplants from NY although it's okay if they keep coming or from anywhere else.

Unfortunately I absolutely will not trust the accuracy of next year's census although the citizen question has been removed.

[kyb01]

Originally Posted by cpomp

I don't see an acceleration anytime soon, the 1.6M mark will certainly happen though. It would be awesome if Philadelphia were to inch closer to 2M one day.

I would also like to see Montgomery County hit 1M people eventually too.

The only way I see the city growing to 2 million again is, perhaps, via climate change refugees. But 1.6 million is doable,imo.

[Pennsport]

Originally Posted by kyb01

The only way I see the city growing to 2 million again is, perhaps, via climate change refugees. But 1.6 million is doable,imo.

Really? I totally see that as a possibility. I mean, not in our lifetimes, but pushing out all of north and west philly, I can totally see that. And, yes, climate change is part of the scenario, but that's only bc it's more or less inevitable that this point.

[kyb01]

Originally Posted by Pennsport

Really? I totally see that as a possibility. I mean, not in our lifetimes, but pushing out all of north and west philly, I can totally see that. And, yes, climate change is part of the scenario, but that's only bc it's more or less inevitable that this point.

Who knows? Maybe some of the ex-Philadelphians who left, for example, for FL may come back. I would love for that to happen.

[DavePa]

Originally Posted by kyb01

Who knows? Maybe some of the ex-Philadelphians who left, for example, for FL may come back. I would love for that to happen.

Though on hour ignore ..... most who move to Florida are still retired folk from the North. They won't have to worry about Florida disappearing in their lifetime.

I'd say more younger ones went to cities like Atlanta ...... no sea-rise worries there.

I see Philly as maintaining its African-American population. More them most Northern cities. That alone means growth is more likely for Philly as it has seen some. You noted also the high birth rate maintaining it also.