Why was violent crime so low 2013-16 (attorney, neighborhoods)

[KoNgFooCj]

Philly had under 300 homicides each year 2013-2016. 2013 actually saw the least homocides of any year since 1967.

I've seen some people saying Micheal Nutter had something to do with the unprecedented drop in homicides. Is there any truth to this or do you think it was just timing? After all, violent crime was down nation wide at that time before starting to rise around 2017.

Could it have had anything to do with the local economy? Philly still has a 26% poverty rate, considerably higher than Chicago's 20% and the highest of any city over a million people. Then there are police practices, which are much more dynamic and change with each new mayor and police commissioner.

[kyb01]

Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj

Philly had under 300 homicides each year 2013-2016. 2013 actually saw the least homocides of any year since 1967.

I've seen some people saying Micheal Nutter had something to do with the unprecedented drop in homicides. Is there any truth to this or do you think it was just timing? After all, violent crime was down nation wide at that time before starting to rise around 2017.

Could it have had anything to do with the local economy? Philly still has a 26% poverty rate, considerably higher than Chicago's 20% and the highest of any city over a million people. Then there are police practices, which are much more dynamic and change with each new mayor and police commissioner.

Nutter hired Charles Ramsey probably the best police commissioner the city's had in modern times. He was commish for 8 years. Richard Ross was his replacement who never, imo, measured up. He abruptly resigned last summer and lasted 3 years. We've had an acting commish since August and I don't see that as a good sign for the dept.

[FKD19124]

Currently Philly has an idiot District Attorney as well.

Originally Posted by kyb01

Nutter hired Charles Ramsey probably the best police commissioner the city's had in modern times. He was commish for 8 years. Richard Ross was his replacement who never, imo, measured up. He abruptly resigned last summer and lasted 3 years. We've had an acting commish since August and I don't see that as a good sign for the dept.

[Redddog]

The cops I've talked to say that it's an interesting time for Philly. The gentrification that's going on is shrinking the blighted-out neighborhoods that breed the drug and violence scene. So there's less territory and that has been fueling gang wars over those shrinking territories. I'm not sure if I believe that but it sounds like that could play into it. And if that's true, the problem will eventually right itself the more gentrification squeezes out the players.

Sprinkle in what seems like a greater demand for drugs, more availability of guns and a healthy dose of poverty for good measure and it would explain why the problem will only increase if left alone to fester. There's no question that good policing and policy makes a difference in those numbers. What is disappointing is that we don't seem to currently have good policing and policy.

Somehow, we need to convince the youngsters that the world of quick drug money isn't all that they're told it is. And that human life isn't something you throw away like toilet paper.

[kyb01]

Originally Posted by FKD19124

Currently Philly has an idiot District Attorney as well.

This will surprise you: I can't stand him. But, remember, the DA before him is now a convicted criminal serving time. So we had semi-dysfunctional DA's office before Krasner. One of my heros of all time is Lynn Abraham, who waited too long to run for mayor, imo.

[kyb01]

Originally Posted by Redddog

The cops I've talked to say that it's an interesting time for Philly. The gentrification that's going on is shrinking the blighted-out neighborhoods that breed the drug and violence scene. So there's less territory and that has been fueling gang wars over those shrinking territories. I'm not sure if I believe that but it sounds like that could play into it. And if that's true, the problem will eventually right itself the more gentrification squeezes out the players.

Sprinkle in what seems like a greater demand for drugs, more availability of guns and a healthy dose of poverty for good measure and it would explain why the problem will only increase if left alone to fester. There's no question that good policing and policy makes a difference in those numbers. What is disappointing is that we don't seem to currently have good policing and policy.

Somehow, we need to convince the youngsters that the world of quick drug money isn't all that they're told it is. And that human life isn't something you throw away like toilet paper.

The PPD needs better, outside, leadership. The facebook scandal, the law suit that made Ross resign, an acting commish when we should be hearing about a permanent replacement by now is telling.

Speaking of gentrification, there was some drug activity in eastern Spring Garden when I first moved to Spring Garden in 1995. That is long over as that part of SG gets close to being completely redone.

[Pennsport]

Originally Posted by Redddog

The cops I've talked to say that it's an interesting time for Philly. The gentrification that's going on is shrinking the blighted-out neighborhoods that breed the drug and violence scene. So there's less territory and that has been fueling gang wars over those shrinking territories. I'm not sure if I believe that but it sounds like that could play into it. And if that's true, the problem will eventually right itself the more gentrification squeezes out the players.

Sprinkle in what seems like a greater demand for drugs, more availability of guns and a healthy dose of poverty for good measure and it would explain why the problem will only increase if left alone to fester. There's no question that good policing and policy makes a difference in those numbers. What is disappointing is that we don't seem to currently have good policing and policy.

Somehow, we need to convince the youngsters that the world of quick drug money isn't all that they're told it is. And that human life isn't something you throw away like toilet paper.

I've actually heard the same thing from multiple sources that would, in theory, know. To your point though Redddog, I'm not sure if that's the internal narrative that is being pushed from the top and carried through via the rank and file, or truly factually accurate. It certainly does seems plausible however. I know a few years ago several Grad. Hospital gangs were effectively squeezed out of the neighborhood due to continued and all-encompassing gentrification.

I'm not sure the violence will exist as this continues. ALL demographics of society purchase and use drugs, but you don't see shoot-outs commonplace in Rittenhouse. In areas of wealth, the drug trade is more streamlined, subtle and business-like. I have no doubt there are plenty of people buying blow, weed and pills in Grad Hospital now, but they're probably doing so off the street in a more covert situation. They're also probably spending quite a bit more than the average crack head in the 1990s was dropping. I think there is probably a tipping point of when the violence peaks (as gangs lose territory, start bumping into one another, and have to become accustomed to the new reality), and when the business-side takes over and gangs effectively operate differently.

[FKD19124]

She was awesome and would have made an excellent mayor!!
My mom sat on one of her juries and said she was tough.

Originally Posted by kyb01

This will surprise you: I can't stand him. But, remember, the DA before him is now a convicted criminal serving time. So we had semi-dysfunctional DA's office before Krasner. One of my heros of all time is Lynn Abraham, who waited too long to run for mayor, imo.

[KoNgFooCj]

Originally Posted by FKD19124

Currently Philly has an idiot District Attorney as well.

It's true I know everyone loves to place blame on DA Krasner because he is viewed as being too soft on crime, but if DA is only supposed to deal with prosecution and punishment of crimes, could a DA really have an effect on the actual commission of crime?

[lpranger467]

Yes, because why make arrests when the DA wont write the warrants, or downgrades the charges. This coupled with the Ferguson Effect is why homicides have risen. And due to gentrification the rate is actually lower than it likely would be now if the neighborhoods like Fish Town, Kensington and Grad Hosp were not heavily hipsters now

Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj

It's true I know everyone loves to place blame on DA Krasner because he is viewed as being too soft on crime, but if DA is only supposed to deal with prosecution and punishment of crimes, could a DA really have an effect on the actual commission of crime?