2020 Census predictions (Philadelphia, Lancaster, Houston: incomes, stats, suburban)

[KoNgFooCj]

With the 2020 census completed on schedule, what are your predictions? Will the city gain population? Other demographic predictions?

[cpomp]

It doesn't go hand in hand, but Pennsylvania GDP numbers for 2019 were strong, stronger than Illinois in every quarter, (counties not released yet, though I am sure the Philadelphia area performed well), and 2020 (until now) was poised to be a solid economic year for Pennsylvania and Philadelphia.

I would say without Covid-19, PA and PHL would inch upward slightly in population, and most of the growth would be in Philadelphia, its suburban counties, Lancaster and Lehigh Valley. I want PA to officially hit 13M and Philadelphia to officially hit 1.6M.

It will also be interesting to see how the demographic makeup of Philadelphia changes - Younger and older, white and black, etc.

With Covid-19, I really hope PA and PHL bounce back from this, I am confident Philadelphia will, not sure about the rest of the state (outside of SEPA).

[itsallgoodman]

I expect (and hope for) more Asian.

[bigfish1]

Originally Posted by itsallgoodman

I expect (and hope for) more Asian.

Very specific, care to explain?

[itsallgoodman]

Originally Posted by bigfish1

Very specific, care to explain?

I like the food. I mean, I REALLY like the food.

[KoNgFooCj]

Originally Posted by cpomp

It doesn't go hand in hand, but Pennsylvania GDP numbers for 2019 were strong, stronger than Illinois in every quarter, (counties not released yet, though I am sure the Philadelphia area performed well), and 2020 (until now) was poised to be a solid economic year for Pennsylvania and Philadelphia.

I would say without Covid-19, PA and PHL would inch upward slightly in population, and most of the growth would be in Philadelphia, its suburban counties, Lancaster and Lehigh Valley. I want PA to officially hit 13M and Philadelphia to officially hit 1.6M.

It will also be interesting to see how the demographic makeup of Philadelphia changes - Younger and older, white and black, etc.

With Covid-19, I really hope PA and PHL bounce back from this, I am confident Philadelphia will, not sure about the rest of the state (outside of SEPA).

I could care less about the states population. It *is still 5th most populous afterall. I do however really wish the city could record 1.6M in the 2020 census, but according to this https://thephiladelphiacitizen.org/p...oom-solutions/
The city only grew by about 500 last year, which with this population, I call that virtually stagnant. so yeah there goes that out the window I guess lol.

Racial demographics will probably continue in the direction they've headed, black-fairly stable ~43%, white-decreasing slightly ~32%. I hope Philly gets some more Hispanic and Asian growth, you know, for the culture lol.

The poverty rate which fell below 25%, may creep back up a couple of points, who knows.

[cpomp]

Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj

I could care less about the states population. It *is still 5th most populous afterall. I do however really wish the city could record 1.6M in the 2020 census, but according to this https://thephiladelphiacitizen.org/p...oom-solutions/
The city only grew by about 500 last year, which with this population, I call that virtually stagnant. so yeah there goes that out the window I guess lol.

Racial demographics will probably continue in the direction they've headed, black-fairly stable ~43%, white-decreasing slightly ~32%. I hope Philly gets some more Hispanic and Asian growth, you know, for the culture lol.

The poverty rate which fell below 25%, may creep back up a couple of points, who knows.

I care more about the Philadelphia area, but I don't want to see PA decline, it will remain the 5th populous state due to Illinois's decline, but population growth statewide (even small) is great for the health of PA, rather than SEPA accounting for nearly all the growth. But I am also worried that Philadelphia might go into negative since 500 people is essentially nothing...

And if it weren't for the virus I was eager to see a potential *small* drop in poverty. Dipping into the ~20-22% range would put Philadelphia below Houston (also losing that darn highest poverty rate title).

But the whole Covid-19 mess will increase poverty for many cities, but I fear that Philadelphia will again take a long time to decrease it again (for various reasons). I also see Houston poverty increasing because of this.

Also, I would like to see data showing the movement of incomes and poverty (I don't think the census will show that?), if people are actually coming out of poverty or if they left the area entirely and where they relocated too. The city released its poverty reduction plan just before the pandemic broke out, its a shame to see the progress halted for a year, its actually the first poverty related legislation that has good practices.

[kyb01]

Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj

With the 2020 census completed on schedule, what are your predictions? Will the city gain population? Other demographic predictions?

I already mentioned that I absolutely see it as a total F-up of undercounting. And I thought that before the pandemic which will not help an accurate count at all.

[kyb01]

Originally Posted by cpomp

It doesn't go hand in hand, but Pennsylvania GDP numbers for 2019 were strong, stronger than Illinois in every quarter, (counties not released yet, though I am sure the Philadelphia area performed well), and 2020 (until now) was poised to be a solid economic year for Pennsylvania and Philadelphia.

I would say without Covid-19, PA and PHL would inch upward slightly in population, and most of the growth would be in Philadelphia, its suburban counties, Lancaster and Lehigh Valley. I want PA to officially hit 13M and Philadelphia to officially hit 1.6M.

It will also be interesting to see how the demographic makeup of Philadelphia changes - Younger and older, white and black, etc.

With Covid-19, I really hope PA and PHL bounce back from this, I am confident Philadelphia will, not sure about the rest of the state (outside of SEPA).

Interesting analysis. I don't see it being an accurate count with a lot of unreliable stats but, hopefully, I will be wrong.

The 1918 pandemic actually "pushed" into 1920. Did that impact census data that relied on people doing physical counts in the 1920 ?

Philadelphia, in spite of losing thousands of people in that pandemic, still grew by about 300K people between 1910 and 1920.

[kyb01]

Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj

I could care less about the states population. It *is still 5th most populous afterall. I do however really wish the city could record 1.6M in the 2020 census, but according to this https://thephiladelphiacitizen.org/p...oom-solutions/
The city only grew by about 500 last year, which with this population, I call that virtually stagnant. so yeah there goes that out the window I guess lol.

Racial demographics will probably continue in the direction they've headed, black-fairly stable ~43%, white-decreasing slightly ~32%. I hope Philly gets some more Hispanic and Asian growth, you know, for the culture lol.

The poverty rate which fell below 25%, may creep back up a couple of points, who knows.

Why is any of this funny to you?