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Old 06-23-2020, 05:36 AM
 
10,789 posts, read 7,024,307 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DXBtoFL View Post
Some of you would do well to remember many American cities experienced profound declines in the 1960s-1990s, Philadelphia included. And were marred with the same angry politics we seem to be seeing emerge now. The 1960s riots were seen as a catalyst for the decline of major cities.

Dedicated urbanites will always stay in cities, but others will looser attachments will wean away more easily if crime increases and quality of amenities, including schools, decline. There's already plenty of complaints about dysfunctional politics. Policies like defunding police can very easily backfire.

As it is, the future is highly unpredictable.
I'm the only person ,who posts regularly, who actually remembers Phila , and the area in general , 50-60 years ago because I was here. I'm a native. In some respects Philadelphia's grimmest days were the 70s-mid 90s.

I did grow up in the suburbs( in Haverford) but from my mid-teens on the idea of spending my life in such a soul destroying atmosphere made it important for me to plan on moving to some place more vibrant. So, yes, I am absolutely a dedicated urbanite. Given my age very little could change my mind about that.
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Old 06-23-2020, 06:06 AM
 
Location: Philadelphia, PA
1,363 posts, read 655,856 times
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I am a New York State native (Southern Tier, just over the border of Pennsylvania) who chose to move to Philadelphia. My dad is a native Pennsylvanian and all of his family lives in the state, scattered throughout North Central, South Central and the Philadelphia area. My dad's paternal side of the family originally immigrated directly to Philadelphia, so I feel I have some sort of roots here. But, above all else, I am a native New York Stater.

I was working out in New Mexico before I made the move. I chose Philadelphia for all the reasons many New Yorkers move here: a cheaper cost of living with a real estate market within reach for a person of my salary bracket, urbanity, architecture / built form, vibrancy, public transit, distinct local culture, location, etc. Plus, I have family in the area and friends in the city. My friends raved about it here. To me, it is wild that Philadelphia is still so relatively affordable compared to the rest of the big four East Coast cities. I find it to be a much more interesting city than either Boston or D.C. New York of course is in its own category. I love to visit, and have friends and family there. But, I think Philadelphia is just so much more livable.

It's hard for me to imagine Philadelphia will continue to be so affordable, but in the meantime, I am not complaining.
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Old 06-23-2020, 06:54 AM
 
488 posts, read 220,066 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kyb01 View Post
I'm the only person ,who posts regularly, who actually remembers Phila , and the area in general , 50-60 years ago because I was here. I'm a native. In some respects Philadelphia's grimmest days were the 70s-mid 90s.

I did grow up in the suburbs( in Haverford) but from my mid-teens on the idea of spending my life in such a soul destroying atmosphere made it important for me to plan on moving to some place more vibrant. So, yes, I am absolutely a dedicated urbanite. Given my age very little could change my mind about that.
Good for you. Just be realistic that most people don't love urban areas that much to care about being a dedicated urbanite, nor see suburbs or exurbs or rural areas as "soul destroying."

Even at the height of gentrification / renewal the conveyor belt of moving vans to the suburbs once kids came along was already the dominant pattern for most educated young 20-30 somethings having their fun decade in Philadelphia. People were already moving because of cramped rowhouses, crime, schools and dysfunctional urban politics. And that won't change anytime soon. The question is will this accelerate, or will the current tensions fizzle out and gentrification continues?
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Old 06-23-2020, 08:41 AM
 
Location: Boston Metrowest (via the Philly area)
5,494 posts, read 8,600,334 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DXBtoFL View Post
Even at the height of gentrification / renewal the conveyor belt of moving vans to the suburbs once kids came along was already the dominant pattern for most educated young 20-30 somethings having their fun decade in Philadelphia. People were already moving because of cramped rowhouses, crime, schools and dysfunctional urban politics. And that won't change anytime soon. The question is will this accelerate, or will the current tensions fizzle out and gentrification continues?
Which is exactly the same trend found in every major city, although it's been documented that more families are choosing to remain in cities with increasing confidence in their neighborhood schools.

Even with the well-traveled city-to-suburb trail of 30-somethings entering parenthood, the still cycle continues. Philadelphia, and other large cities, will continue to attract young, upwardly-mobile college graduates, empty nesters, and immigrants.
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Old 06-23-2020, 09:16 AM
 
124 posts, read 98,137 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DXBtoFL View Post
Some of you would do well to remember many American cities experienced profound declines in the 1960s-1990s, Philadelphia included. And were marred with the same angry politics we seem to be seeing emerge now. The 1960s riots were seen as a catalyst for the decline of major cities.
It was actually white flight and deindustrialization that contributed to the decline in major cities.
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Old 06-23-2020, 09:20 AM
 
10,789 posts, read 7,024,307 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DXBtoFL View Post
Good for you. Just be realistic that most people don't love urban areas that much to care about being a dedicated urbanite, nor see suburbs or exurbs or rural areas as "soul destroying."

Even at the height of gentrification / renewal the conveyor belt of moving vans to the suburbs once kids came along was already the dominant pattern for most educated young 20-30 somethings having their fun decade in Philadelphia. People were already moving because of cramped rowhouses, crime, schools and dysfunctional urban politics. And that won't change anytime soon. The question is will this accelerate, or will the current tensions fizzle out and gentrification continues?
I'm very aware of how others feel. but I'm generally a contrarian.

No one can predict the future. Only fools do that.
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Old 06-23-2020, 09:21 AM
 
124 posts, read 98,137 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DXBtoFL View Post
Even at the height of gentrification / renewal the conveyor belt of moving vans to the suburbs once kids came along was already the dominant pattern for most educated young 20-30 somethings having their fun decade in Philadelphia.
I don't think anyone disagrees with that but the number of people staying in Philadelphia after they have kids and get older, has been increasing compared to 5, 10, 15+ years ago.
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Old 06-23-2020, 12:27 PM
 
488 posts, read 220,066 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sketter View Post
I don't think anyone disagrees with that but the number of people staying in Philadelphia after they have kids and get older, has been increasing compared to 5, 10, 15+ years ago.
An increase, sure, but against the backdrop of the vast majority who continued move out. It's great for the city there's an increase and the question is will this continue.

Philadelphia faces a particularly problematic problem because so much of the city's revenues is from wage taxes rather than property taxes (as is usually the case in other places). With WFH, you can see an exodus of employees, as is already happening in my own firm. A decline in wage tax revenues, exacerbated by an increase in unemployment, could push the city into a very tricky financial position. There's already calls for funding cuts but when services are cut, quality of said services declines. Philadelphia schools are already in a problematic position. People will constantly reevaluate the pros and cons of staying in the city versus moving to the suburbs. If the perception is crime increasing and schools are more problematic, people will move because the benefits of staying in Philadelphia declines. It's that simple. This isn't an individual by individual case as most of the stories posted on here are anecdotal, but on a broader demographic scale. And it's happened before. There were initial waves of gentrification in the 1970s and 1980s that fizzled out or remained limited, or even fell backwards a bit. And it could happen again. Just a FYI.

If Philadelphia tries to raise property taxes to compensate for decline in wage tax revenues, it runs into the same problems. Any kind of tax increase is difficult to swallow in Philadelphia because the benefits from it are already pretty low for many people.
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Old 06-23-2020, 02:18 PM
 
Location: Philadelphia
992 posts, read 473,512 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarketStEl View Post
I'm in media, ....
What?!

I thought you were the Crown Prince of Germantown?!
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Old 06-23-2020, 03:26 PM
 
Location: Dude...., I'm right here
1,552 posts, read 1,097,210 times
Reputation: 1444
I know of colleagues who are moving out of the city to the burbs even though their jobs have been designated as WFH for the foreseeable future. This 'rona thing has made people realize the importance of having your own space. The more space the better. Plus all the amenities the cities had to offer doesn't look so appealing now that we are going to change the way we do stuff.


Quote:
Originally Posted by MarketStEl View Post

This agent I quote also said to me that city-dwellers here are looking in the suburbs for the first reason as well.
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