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Definitely agree on more investment in transit. After the pandemic is over, I think working from home will remain higher than normal, but agree that you will have folks in the office at least part time (I believe that's the plan in my office) and you will continue to have folks that just can't work remotely. If SEPTA can make the system easier to use and more efficient it will get more riders. If anything SEPTA should change regional rail to something more like an s-bahn, which I thought was the plan originally. That would mean more trains, shorter time between trains, platform loading and an integrated fare system (any station in the city should be the same fare as the El/Trolley/BSL). It's already electrified and through-running, and the fare piece should be easy now with septa key. Over the past few years they've been converting stations to elevate platforms as well. They just need to realize its potential for transit for people in the city and not just commuting to and from the suburbs.
Another big project I hope moves forward is trolley modernization, which would change the trolley system into more of a light rail system with longer cars, low level floors for easier loading and spaced out stops. The almost $2 billion NHSL spur to KOP I feel should be axed though. I get that something needs to be done, but I just don't think that's the answer. KOP is so sprawly and not at all pedestrian friendly, so I'm not sure what people will do once they get off the train. You'd need to basically rebuild KOP. If anything I'd rather the regional rail get extended from next door Norristown (which as a side-note would be interesting to see with $2b worth of development in its already walkable downtown with regional rail stops and NHSL), which goes right by KOP anyway. You could have shuttle buses from the station. That's got to be less than $2b.
SEPTA already started on overhauling the bus network, so it'll be interesting to see what comes out of that.
Outside of SEPTA, in the city bike infrastructure needs to be improved. If people do indeed work from home more then there will be an increase in bikers. There already is an increase, and it will be even more. I would imagine people working from home will take breaks throughout the day and get out after being cooped up for more than a year. That would include taking a quick bike ride across town just for exercise or to grab a bite to eat or something.
I think real estate in the city has remained strong through all this because people know this is temporary and are betting on the city to continue booming after the pandemic. People like to live in cities and that's not going to change even with a pandemic. Hopefully the local/state and federal governments finally realize the importance of transit and start making funding easier to come by.
Definitely agree on more investment in transit. After the pandemic is over, I think working from home will remain higher than normal, but agree that you will have folks in the office at least part time (I believe that's the plan in my office) and you will continue to have folks that just can't work remotely. If SEPTA can make the system easier to use and more efficient it will get more riders. If anything SEPTA should change regional rail to something more like an s-bahn, which I thought was the plan originally. That would mean more trains, shorter time between trains, platform loading and an integrated fare system (any station in the city should be the same fare as the El/Trolley/BSL). It's already electrified and through-running, and the fare piece should be easy now with septa key. Over the past few years they've been converting stations to elevate platforms as well. They just need to realize its potential for transit for people in the city and not just commuting to and from the suburbs.
Another big project I hope moves forward is trolley modernization, which would change the trolley system into more of a light rail system with longer cars, low level floors for easier loading and spaced out stops. The almost $2 billion NHSL spur to KOP I feel should be axed though. I get that something needs to be done, but I just don't think that's the answer. KOP is so sprawly and not at all pedestrian friendly, so I'm not sure what people will do once they get off the train. You'd need to basically rebuild KOP. If anything I'd rather the regional rail get extended from next door Norristown (which as a side-note would be interesting to see with $2b worth of development in its already walkable downtown with regional rail stops and NHSL), which goes right by KOP anyway. You could have shuttle buses from the station. That's got to be less than $2b.
SEPTA already started on overhauling the bus network, so it'll be interesting to see what comes out of that.
Outside of SEPTA, in the city bike infrastructure needs to be improved. If people do indeed work from home more then there will be an increase in bikers. There already is an increase, and it will be even more. I would imagine people working from home will take breaks throughout the day and get out after being cooped up for more than a year. That would include taking a quick bike ride across town just for exercise or to grab a bite to eat or something.
I think real estate in the city has remained strong through all this because people know this is temporary and are betting on the city to continue booming after the pandemic. People like to live in cities and that's not going to change even with a pandemic. Hopefully the local/state and federal governments finally realize the importance of transit and start making funding easier to come by.
I agree with all that you said. And especially the KOP project.
It really is a total mess of a project. And that money would be better invested in so many other projects.
The biggest benefactor of that project is Simon Properties. Pretty crazy when you think about it??
They also apparently went with the route, that largely is void of Dekalb Pike, which limits development potential in its entirety.
I like the KOP mall, but no one entity should be so personally subsidized by the government, to benefit its development potential, without having to pay some type of development tax to help fund the project.
Apparently, Simon plans to develop an entire walkable residential component to its mall parking lots, that would connect with the new station.
This is actually how they build transit in Asia.
They build the infrastructure, but tax the development (TOD) around the stations, which is built to high density and walkable, and the developer pays for the majority of the transit project, because the infrastructure, even with the tax brings a net gain to the developer.
Can definitely speak to real estate getting more expensive. Was just outbid on my fourth offer, and couldn't even schedule a showing for another house because they were all booked. I have pre-approval, 20% down, and excellent credit. Never thought I'd be unable to buy a house in Philly, but there you have it.
Transit will only be more popular when investment in roads and the efficiency of driving decline. The government invests a ton of money into widening and improving roads even when they are putting additional paltry funds into transit. Transit can't compete, even in Philly.
Does anyone think a bubble is building with the housing market?
The record low interest rates are really one of the main drivers to the record increase in buyers looking for homes with nearly no inventory.
But at some point there is a peak, that will ensue.
Even with record low interest rates, wages are not keeping up with the housing increases, and once prices get to a certain point. The market has to shift at some point.
The Philadelphia region has a very diverse and relatively robust economy, and the suburbs most definitely have some serious wealth.
But I cannot see this trend going on for the next decade, where homes in Brewerytown are now selling for 550k in 2020, and in 2030, 1,000,000 Million?? No way.
Does anyone think a bubble is building with the housing market?
The record low interest rates are really one of the main drivers to the record increase in buyers looking for homes with nearly no inventory.
But at some point there is a peak, that will ensue.
Even with record low interest rates, wages are not keeping up with the housing increases, and once prices get to a certain point. The market has to shift at some point.
The Philadelphia region has a very diverse and relatively robust economy, and the suburbs most definitely have some serious wealth.
But I cannot see this trend going on for the next decade, where homes in Brewerytown are now selling for 550k in 2020, and in 2030, 1,000,000 Million?? No way.
No bubble in my opinion. It's not really about the sale price, it's more about monthly payments. A 750k new build rooftop deck, garage parking townhome with fixed 30 year rate of 2.8% or so would be about the same payment as a 600k place at more a "normal rate" of say 4.5% (both with 20% down). And to your point above, there will be a ceiling. Prices won't continue to rise every year at this rate. Developers aren't in the business of building homes to sit on them because the market doesn't support the price point or buyers can't get loans. Regarding loans, fortunately the banks learned their lesson from the last collapse and you have to be legit to get a loan now.
The more concerning trend IMO is the huge number of rentals coming on market. I'm not sure why developers have recently started seeing more ROI for apartments, but there are tons of new build rentals happening all over the city. These would have almost certainly been condos a few years back (maybe as recent as a year ago). And these rentals aren't the 1000/month places that young Philadelphians have historically rented before purchasing a home. I just hope we have enough people that want to pay luxury rental price points rather than buy a place. Again, developers aren't in the business of losing money, so this strategy must be informed by market research. Maybe it's the new attitude of not being tied down with home ownership. It just seems odd to me that people would rather burn 2k or more a month than actually build equity and change their financial lives forever. Guess we'll see...
Transit will only be more popular when investment in roads and the efficiency of driving decline. The government invests a ton of money into widening and improving roads even when they are putting additional paltry funds into transit. Transit can't compete, even in Philly.
It's very true. Especially in areas with stagnant or declining population but increasing roadway infrastructure maintenance costs, that's a recipe for fiscal disaster. I think we're looking at a future with a lot fewer paved roads, unless a MUCH more cost effective model comes along.
Public transit will always be a much more efficient investment in reality, but as you say, the federal government in particular stacks the deck against it big time.
No bubble in my opinion. It's not really about the sale price, it's more about monthly payments. A 750k new build rooftop deck, garage parking townhome with fixed 30 year rate of 2.8% or so would be about the same payment as a 600k place at more a "normal rate" of say 4.5% (both with 20% down). And to your point above, there will be a ceiling. Prices won't continue to rise every year at this rate. Developers aren't in the business of building homes to sit on them because the market doesn't support the price point or buyers can't get loans. Regarding loans, fortunately the banks learned their lesson from the last collapse and you have to be legit to get a loan now.
The more concerning trend IMO is the huge number of rentals coming on market. I'm not sure why developers have recently started seeing more ROI for apartments, but there are tons of new build rentals happening all over the city. These would have almost certainly been condos a few years back (maybe as recent as a year ago). And these rentals aren't the 1000/month places that young Philadelphians have historically rented before purchasing a home. I just hope we have enough people that want to pay luxury rental price points rather than buy a place. Again, developers aren't in the business of losing money, so this strategy must be informed by market research. Maybe it's the new attitude of not being tied down with home ownership. It just seems odd to me that people would rather burn 2k or more a month than actually build equity and change their financial lives forever. Guess we'll see...
I would not say the rental market is oversaturated. I would say overall it is being developed at a healthy clip. Class A rentals, also take the pressure off of the Class B market, and helps to keep rents overall relatively more affordable across the board.
If anything condos in Philadelphia have proven to be a challenging sell, given the relative affordability of rowhomes. I work in Real Estate and Condo listings are typically a much harder sell in the city.
As home prices continue to increase though, I foresee condo sales once again picking up again.
I would not say the rental market is oversaturated. I would say overall it is being developed at a healthy clip. Class A rentals, also take the pressure off of the Class B market, and helps to keep rents overall relatively more affordable across the board.
If anything condos in Philadelphia have proven to be a challenging sell, given the relative affordability of rowhomes. I work in Real Estate and Condo listings are typically a much harder sell in the city.
As home prices continue to increase though, I foresee condo sales once again picking up again.
That makes sense. Even though condo sticker prices can be very appealing, condo fees can be a killer. To name just one example, there are 1- to 2-bedroom units for sale at a building in Jenkintown in the low- to mid-1s that run $500-600/month in fees on top of mortgage and taxes.
No bubble in my opinion. It's not really about the sale price, it's more about monthly payments. A 750k new build rooftop deck, garage parking townhome with fixed 30 year rate of 2.8% or so would be about the same payment as a 600k place at more a "normal rate" of say 4.5% (both with 20% down). And to your point above, there will be a ceiling. Prices won't continue to rise every year at this rate. Developers aren't in the business of building homes to sit on them because the market doesn't support the price point or buyers can't get loans. Regarding loans, fortunately the banks learned their lesson from the last collapse and you have to be legit to get a loan now.
The more concerning trend IMO is the huge number of rentals coming on market. I'm not sure why developers have recently started seeing more ROI for apartments, but there are tons of new build rentals happening all over the city. These would have almost certainly been condos a few years back (maybe as recent as a year ago). And these rentals aren't the 1000/month places that young Philadelphians have historically rented before purchasing a home. I just hope we have enough people that want to pay luxury rental price points rather than buy a place. Again, developers aren't in the business of losing money, so this strategy must be informed by market research. Maybe it's the new attitude of not being tied down with home ownership. It just seems odd to me that people would rather burn 2k or more a month than actually build equity and change their financial lives forever. Guess we'll see...
Developers are frequently burned when everything looks great. I know two that recently collapsed. The monthly payments may be lower, but let's hope prices don't go down and the economy gets worse. Miss one payment and $50k because the market dipped and foreclosure is near. And the more foreclosures, the more prices take a hit.
People being lured into buying more expensive homes because rates are so low can be dangerous too. Especially when prices are rising so quickly. Will a house that rose by $40k because of bidding wars retain that value? Maybe...?
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