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Old 11-01-2020, 11:18 AM
 
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I've heard that the liberal media doesn't embrace Houston as a liberal bastion because it's in Texas, despite it being the most diverse city in the United States. Do you think the same thing could happen to Philly?

Could this possibly make some Demcrats resent living in PA and leave Philly, and embolden more Republicans to move there? I only ask because it just seems so weird to me for PA to be a red state. It's so connected with the rest of the Northeast and it's been a blue state for such a long time. With PA blue, it makes the blue Northeast look so much bigger and prominent on a map, and without it, the blue Northeast stops at New York. This will probably embolden Republicans, even if only subconsciously.
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Old 11-01-2020, 11:22 AM
Status: "Living in Pandemica." (set 7 days ago)
 
Location: North by Northwest
7,530 posts, read 10,638,449 times
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No. See, e.g., Austin (not that I’m saying Philly is progressive on Austin’s level).
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Old 11-01-2020, 11:38 AM
 
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Many medium to large cities across the country are blue(-ish) contradicting the red sea that makes up the rest of their respective states.

Philly proper is overwhelmingly blue although the Far Northeast and "Far South Philly" are consistently notable exceptions. Also, at least with a plurality of the police, there may be a plurality of at least one union who has found mutual regard with the current White House incumbent.
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Old 11-01-2020, 01:11 PM
 
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As a whole, I wouldn't even say Pennsylvania is red---it's definitely purple. Both locally and nationally, PA votes for Democrats just as often as it does Republicans. As much as people want to mock "Pennsyltucky", we're a true swing state in every sense of the word.

Now, does any of that matter for Philly itself? I don't think most people living here give a crap about how red or blue the rest of the state is. Even when PA's red legislative tendencies screw us over a bit (such as transit funding) I doubt it's enough to make anyone leave in a huff over it. If anything, we've only become more of a destination over time.
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Old 11-01-2020, 09:00 PM
 
Location: Boston Metrowest (via the Philly area)
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The premise here is false.

Pennsylvania went for a populist pseudo-Republican in 2016 by 0.7%. The state hadn't gone "red" since 1988 (like most of the US) prior to that, and in each case the Democratic margin was much higher than 0.7%.

Heck, Trump couldn't even muster a majority of PA votes in 2016, only a very narrow plurality. Most people probably aren't even aware of that.

Despite attrition since 2016, the Dems still hold a 700K+ advantage in voter registration.

The fact of the matter is that Pennsylvania isn't a red state; based on ALL voting history and registration, it's very much a blue-leaning purple state.

At this point it's VERY unlikely to repeat what occurred in 2016.
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Old 11-02-2020, 09:01 AM
 
Location: Center City Philadelphia
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what did I just read
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Old 11-02-2020, 09:27 AM
 
776 posts, read 378,133 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duderino View Post
...
At this point it's VERY unlikely to repeat what occurred in 2016.
I really hope you're right. Two things scare me:

- The huge amount of enthusiasm we see from the trumpers, packing themselves into these crazy rallies.

- the amount of highly paid polsters that are spending literally millions of dollars right now analyzing PA trying to get a line on the vote who have no CLUE which way it will go.
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Old 11-02-2020, 09:41 AM
 
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dupe....
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Old 11-02-2020, 09:44 AM
 
Location: Boston Metrowest (via the Philly area)
5,159 posts, read 8,253,007 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Redddog View Post
I really hope you're right. Two things scare me:

- The huge amount of enthusiasm we see from the trumpers, packing themselves into these crazy rallies.

- the amount of highly paid polsters that are spending literally millions of dollars right now analyzing PA trying to get a line on the vote who have no CLUE which way it will go.
A lot of people forget that the Trumpers come from everywhere; many are recruited to attend rallies from "out of state" to bump up the volume of people/crowd optics. The fact that they're more outspoken (read: obnoxious) than folks voting for Biden doesn't mean they're more numerous.

As I noted in another thread that, right now, there's a meaningful lead in PA for Biden based on polling. Is it insurmountable or impossible to be in error? No. But none of the PA polling leads for Dems were insurmountable over the past 30 years, including [Bill] Clinton ('92 and '96), Gore ('00), Kerry ('04), and Obama ('08 and '12), and each time they prevailed.

It's a sad reality that folks (myself included) really still have PTSD from 2016, but there are numerous signs we're in a very different ballgame this time around, mostly due to the fact that Trump is now an incumbent, and incumbents are by definition on the defensive--whether they admit to it or not.
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Old 11-02-2020, 10:53 AM
 
1,047 posts, read 279,333 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duderino View Post
A lot of people forget that the Trumpers come from everywhere; many are recruited to attend rallies from "out of state" to bump up the volume of people/crowd optics. The fact that they're more outspoken (read: obnoxious) than folks voting for Biden doesn't mean they're more numerous.

As I noted in another thread that, right now, there's a meaningful lead in PA for Biden based on polling. Is it insurmountable or impossible to be in error? No. But none of the PA polling leads for Dems were insurmountable over the past 30 years, including [Bill] Clinton ('92 and '96), Gore ('00), Kerry ('04), and Obama ('08 and '12), and each time they prevailed.

It's a sad reality that folks (myself included) really still have PTSD from 2016, but there are numerous signs we're in a very different ballgame this time around, mostly due to the fact that Trump is now an incumbent, and incumbents are by definition on the defensive--whether they admit to it or not.
No offense but since I live in TrumpTopia PA which is also Pennsyltucky or Alabama in the middle and the Trump signs, flags, American flags with them cannot be missed along every roadway between small cities on lawns and even in the small old even depressed cities though PA.

I actually cannot believe the amount of these signs and yes my clubs and bars I can go to you would find PLENTY of fill a rally. Yesterday there was a Trump Rally in a nearby City in my County with a Trump Campaign official to be there and like a 60 boat Trump ride on the Susquehanna River.

Believe me. there is plenty of enthusiasm these last few months of the campaign to fill rally's without busing in those from somewhere else. This region will be 2 to 1 and higher for Trump or any GOP candidate.
Gone is the notion Trump needs to bus everyone to rally's unless more in a major city perhaps .... Truly, unless Philly gets every Dem vote out? Trump stands a still very good shot at winning. I know every GOP voter and Trump fan WILL be out hell or high water and we expect good weather tomorrow.
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