Kenney Endorses Lamb (to move, suburban, education)

[Redddog]

Originally Posted by Tweb66

There is a thread on the Pittsburgh forum about that, the are convinced that he is a Pennsylvanian because his in laws live here. Yep, 13 million residents, they prefer someone from New Jersey...

I haven't heard any polls. Is that idiot actually polling well?

[MarketStEl]

Originally Posted by Redddog

I haven't heard any polls. Is that idiot actually polling well?

His chief GOP opponent is running as a militant conservative, which should allow him to dispatch Dr. Oz in the Republican primary but will likely cause trouble for him in the general.

I like Malcolm Kenyatta, but he jumped the gun. (OTOH, per Robert Burns, "a man's reach should exceed his grasp, or what's a heaven for?")

I also think Fetterman could surprise a lot of people if he makes it past the primary. He may be the furthest left of all the candidates running, but he has an unusually appealing personality and (seems to me to) know how to cast his messages to appeal to the Forgotten.

[Redddog]

Originally Posted by Tweb66

There is a thread on the Pittsburgh forum about that, the are convinced that he is a Pennsylvanian because his in laws live here. Yep, 13 million residents, they prefer someone from New Jersey...

....dupe post...

[thedirtypirate]

Originally Posted by MarketStEl

I also think Fetterman could surprise a lot of people if he makes it past the primary. He may be the furthest left of all the candidates running, but he has an unusually appealing personality and (seems to me to) know how to cast his messages to appeal to the Forgotten.

Well the "forgotten" often don't vote. I personally don't think Fetterman has any suburban appeal and will not do as well as many suspect. The smartest thing he did though was announce early. Sometimes, if you don't have the cash like the GOP to run tons of ads right off the bat, getting your name out there becomes difficult. It was smart for him to say he was going to run right away. I think if he does win the primary, people will circle around him, but I just don't see it. Dems are going to show up to vote Shapiro & Lamb IMO.

[NewtownBucks]

Originally Posted by Redddog

I haven't heard any polls. Is that idiot actually polling well?

This is the only poll I've seen so far:

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp...oll-Report.pdf

This has Dr. Oz "leading", but only with <20% and >50% undecided. The poll didn't even include Dave McCormick yet, who's already on the air in a heated battle with Dr. Oz.

[NewtownBucks]

Originally Posted by MarketStEl

His chief GOP opponent is running as a militant conservative, which should allow him to dispatch Dr. Oz in the Republican primary but will likely cause trouble for him in the general.

I like Malcolm Kenyatta, but he jumped the gun. (OTOH, per Robert Burns, "a man's reach should exceed his grasp, or what's a heaven for?")

I also think Fetterman could surprise a lot of people if he makes it past the primary. He may be the furthest left of all the candidates running, but he has an unusually appealing personality and (seems to me to) know how to cast his messages to appeal to the Forgotten.

Fetterman is kind of an enigma. His policies are straight across the board progressive, but he comes across as a salt of the earth kind of guy and not a stereotypical weak, far leftist soy boy. He has the personality to appeal to the working class in the same way Trump did in 2016 (except without the underlying racial fearmongering) and also speak even more credibly about unions and jobs and minimum wage in a way that Trump only paid lip service to. Winning back the blue collar would go a long way towards winning PA statewide.

I think fleshing out Fetterman's position on guns is going to be a key here. He has the famous/infamous incident where he heard gunshots and held a man at gunpoint until cops arrived, but he turned out to be a jogger and not involved in the shooting. He addresses the incident on his campaign website in the issues section on gun violence:

https://youtu.be/5Krqv8O4ENQ

Note here that the entire video on gun violence is telling/spinning the story to be sympathetic, playing on his fear of gun violence in the community and desire to make the community safe. What is missing is either a call for gun control or support for 2A rights. This is going to be the high wire he's going to have to walk on - can he be a salt of the earth blue collar union guy and connect with people on progressive economics who are also largely hunters and pro-LE who are afraid of librul gungrabbing hippies? Can he successfully spin a white man holding an unarmed black man at gunpoint as non-racially motivated (I believe it was not racially motivated, BTW)? Ultimately, he's a Bernie Sanders disciple, and I think he'll lean towards 2A rights in the same way Bernie did while also giving ground on some of the core progressive issues like background checks and gun show loopholes, and we'll see if people find him credible.

[FindingZen]

Originally Posted by thedirtypirate

Well the "forgotten" often don't vote. I personally don't think Fetterman has any suburban appeal and will not do as well as many suspect. The smartest thing he did though was announce early. Sometimes, if you don't have the cash like the GOP to run tons of ads right off the bat, getting your name out there becomes difficult. It was smart for him to say he was going to run right away. I think if he does win the primary, people will circle around him, but I just don't see it. Dems are going to show up to vote Shapiro & Lamb IMO.

MarketStEl can probably clarify who he meant as the forgotten.

However, I remember there was a guy running for office about seven years ago who vowed to advocate for, in his words, "the forgotten man" and some of them - along with many women who could relate - voted for him. I think the difference between him and Fetterman is that the latter may be as likely to come to, say, Chester, as he would to other struggling towns in the central part of the state to which the former made his case. Lest we forget, Fetterman was previously Mayor of Braddock, a majority-minority Pittsburgh suburb.

Regarding the suburbs, Fetterman could certainly make a case to Lower Bucks, Eastern Delco and Southeastern Montco. He probably wouldn't resonate much further as Lamb would, I concede.

[MarketStEl]

Originally Posted by FindingZen

MarketStEl can probably clarify who he meant as the forgotten.

However, I remember there was a guy running for office about seven years ago who vowed to advocate for, in his words, "the forgotten man" and some of them - along with many women who could relate - voted for him. I think the difference between him and Fetterman is that the latter may be as likely to come to, say, Chester, as he would to other struggling towns in the central part of the state to which the former made his case. Lest we forget, Fetterman was previously Mayor of Braddock, a majority-minority Pittsburgh suburb.

Regarding the suburbs, Fetterman could certainly make a case to Lower Bucks, Eastern Delco and Southeastern Montco. He probably wouldn't resonate much further as Lamb would, I concede.

Even though Braddock is in Allegheny County, it's definitely a "forgotten" place.

But the places I describe as the "Land of the Forgotten" are largely populated by working- and lower-middle-class whites who got left behind by deindustrialization and related changes in the economy — for instance, the counties surrounding Allegheny that had been Democratic once upon a time but began trending Republican in 2000 and are solidly Republican now.

These places went big for Trump in 2016 and 2020, though, so I may overestimate Fetterman's ability to appeal to their voters.

[FindingZen]

Originally Posted by MarketStEl

Even though Braddock is in Allegheny County, it's definitely a "forgotten" place.

But the places I describe as the "Land of the Forgotten" are largely populated by working- and lower-middle-class whites who got left behind by deindustrialization and related changes in the economy — for instance, the counties surrounding Allegheny that had been Democratic once upon a time but began trending Republican in 2000 and are solidly Republican now.

These places went big for Trump in 2016 and 2020, though, so I may overestimate Fetterman's ability to appeal to their voters.

You and I are on the same page in identifying the "forgotten" people who Trump (whom I'm sure people realized I was referring to) had reached out to in his campaign. Of course there are others - poorer people of color in the Philly metro and around the state - who are forgotten as well. Perhaps Fetterman will make some headway in the primaries in bridging the gap between the two broad demographics although he might face an even more uphill climb in the "T-Zone" than the Scranton native.

[Tweb66]

Originally Posted by FindingZen

You and I are on the same page in identifying the "forgotten" people who Trump (whom I'm sure people realized I was referring to) had reached out to in his campaign. Of course there are others - poorer people of color in the Philly metro and around the state - who are forgotten as well. Perhaps Fetterman will make some headway in the primaries in bridging the gap between the two broad demographics although he might face an even more uphill climb in the "T-Zone" than the Scranton native.

I can't think of any other time when a serious candidate in PA made marijuana legislation a central piece of their campaign. I think that is the wild card, I don't see it as the "forgotten" but that stance has an appeal to people that never voted in the first place. Marijuana cuts through racial, gender, income, education etc lines, people of all walks of life smoke it and I suspect there is an untapped single issue voter that he might be able to tap.