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Old 09-26-2008, 10:11 PM
 
Location: Boston Metrowest (via the Philly area)
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Although this is just a preliminary estimate, the Census Bureau is reporting that Philadelphia's population loss has -- due in no small part to immigration over the past few years -- started to reverse itself. Here are the estimates for the past 3 years:

2005: 1,406,415
2006: 1,448,394
2007: 1,449,634

Philadelphia city, PA; Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metro Area - Selected Social Characteristics in the United States: 2007

It will definitely be interesting to see some concrete numbers in 2010 to see if the estimates are confirmed.
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Old 09-26-2008, 10:15 PM
 
Location: Newtown, Bucks County, Pennsylvania
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This is a good sign. Philly has a long way to go but I think it has already hit its bottom and is starting to make its climb back. Remember, New York was a disaster in the 70s and its in great shape today. By 2030 Philly might again be an affluent city that you can feel safe being in. The only problem is when gentrification happens, the troubled segments of the population have to go somewhere. Durring New York's gentrification much of the poorer population ended up in Allentown, Reading, and Lancaster. Will Philly's gentrification do the same thing?
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Old 09-26-2008, 10:55 PM
 
Location: South Philly
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I've been saying that for 5 years now. I still don't trust the census estimates (due to the way they perform them). If you were listening to them back in 1996 the city population was already 1.4 million.
My educated opinion is that the population in the city leveled off somewhere between 1997-1999 and started to go back up in 2002-2003. That's not to say that there are not still parts of the city that people are fleeing - but they're more than offset by the neighborhoods that are being redeveloped or stabilized vis-a-vis immigration.

One thing about "gentrification" in NYC. First, the troubled part of New York's population is exactly where it was 20 years ago. Those that got out landed themselves in Queens, Nassau, Westchester, Hudson, Essex and Union Counties.

The Puerto Ricans to which you are undoubtedly referring have been in Lancaster, Reading and Allentown since the 60's and, initially, didn't come from New York. They were farm workers who came directly from Puerto Rico . . . only later coming from New York and Philly as factory work disappeared in those places. The PR population in those places has nothing to do with the "gentrification" of New York. Puerto Ricans have been moving into the middle class and leaving big cities, en masse, since the early 80s.

As far as speculation about where the Philadelphia poor will wind up? The poor will stay exactly where they are because they don't have a choice. For the working poor and aspiring middle class it's already quite clear where they're going - to suburban apartment complexes all over the region. The closer to the jobs and/or transit the better.

Rich people living downtown might be a relatively new (again) phenomenon in Philadelphia but it's not new in the US and it's certainly not new anywhere else in the world.
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Old 09-29-2008, 07:10 AM
 
Location: DC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by solibs View Post
As far as speculation about where the Philadelphia poor will wind up? The poor will stay exactly where they are because they don't have a choice. For the working poor and aspiring middle class it's already quite clear where they're going - to suburban apartment complexes all over the region. The closer to the jobs and/or transit the better.
I don't know how gentrification is going in Philly, but in DC the poorer residents are definitely being shoved out, mostly to PG County in Maryland. The general MO is that a developer buys up a bunch of buildings, knocks them down/renovates, and resells starting at $500,000 each. They're also having problems with landlords of rent-controlled housing not keeping up their buildings so the tenants move out and they can sell. Granted, some projects include plans for renovated low-income housing, but other areas have changed so rapidly that the current or former residents have no hope of staying there.

Of course, DC is much smaller and real estate is more expensive than Philly.
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Old 09-29-2008, 08:35 AM
 
Location: Montco PA
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I think this is good news. We'll see what the actual census says.

If anything, we should note that wealthier, more job-creating states such as NJ, for example, are losing more natives, if I'm not mistaken, but their populations increase because they lure more immigrants.
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Old 09-29-2008, 11:35 AM
 
Location: South Philly
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Quote:
Originally Posted by juniperbleu View Post
I don't know how gentrification is going in Philly, but in DC the poorer residents are definitely being shoved out, mostly to PG County in Maryland. The general MO is that a developer buys up a bunch of buildings, knocks them down/renovates, and resells starting at $500,000 each. They're also having problems with landlords of rent-controlled housing not keeping up their buildings so the tenants move out and they can sell. Granted, some projects include plans for renovated low-income housing, but other areas have changed so rapidly that the current or former residents have no hope of staying there.

Of course, DC is much smaller and real estate is more expensive than Philly.
People only talk about "gentrification" when it's black people who are relocating. In Philly the only historically black neighborhood that has seen some redevelopment is G-Ho. It's still majority black and it's not likely to change much. Most of the reinvestment in and around Center City has hit majority white neighborhoods like Pennsport, Fishtown, Passyunk Square, EPX, Fairmount - or warehouse districts where few people lived before like Old City, Northern Liberties, the Loft District, etc.

Most homes in Philly are owner occupied. Higher than national average. That's just as much the case in the poor neighborhoods - white or black. We just don't have neighborhoods full of life-long renters who have been in the same apartment for 20 years. First, we don't have many apartments. Second, people who rent here move around a lot. Houses in most of the blue-collar neighborhoods here cost as little $20k 8 or 9 years ago so I don't have much sympathy for anyone over 40 who doesn't own their house. That's the general sentiment of most of my english speaking neighbors, who have been in this neighborhood for generations. In fact, the block behind me is one extended family and the few people they rent to, they own all but 4 houses on the block.

Anyway, i'm not sure why some people fetishize poverty the way that they do. There's nothing good about persistent, concentrated poverty. My position is that low and mod-income units should be required for developers building 5 or more units (in fact, many jurisdictions have similar requirements) and the ratios should be based on the percentage of people in the metro living in those income brackets. For a long, long time suburban counties have been using the city as a dumping ground for all of their problems. AFAIK, New Jersey is the only state, vis-a-vis the Mt. Laurel decisions, that forces suburban municipalities to shoulder their share of the burden when it comes to affordable housing.

What's most funny to me is, in my neighborhood at least, the people who complain about middle-class white people moving to the neighborhood are those that are profiting from the drug trade. It was a similar situation in G-Ho, the neighborhood a few blocks south of Rittenhouse Square (rich white people have to buy their drugs somewhere) except in that neighborhood some black intellectuals latched on to and exploited the general discontent. Thankfully they lost the battle and the nightly gunshots/monthly homicides have all but disappeared.
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Old 10-02-2008, 07:07 AM
 
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Sounds like good news, but I'm still a little suspect about some parts of it, like the Hispanic origin (more Mexicans than Dominicans in this city??? I think not!!!) I don't think census did a very accurate count regarding Dominicans in this city. What I'm saying is that I don't believe that they went to certain places (i. e. North Philly). If they did, they would've found a growing Dominican population, which is probable three times more than the Mexican population.

Also, it looks like both blacks (-about 20,000 from last year) and whites (-about 60,000) are leaving the city in droves. I can understand why blacks are leaving (gun violence, murder, drugs, etc.), but I wonder why whites are leaving since violent crimes like that don't affect them directly like it does blacks. Plus I've noticed something strange. I've noticed that the Italians (-10,000) have moved out more than the Irish (-about 2,000) in this city. I know that this city is just starting to come back together after 8 years of John Street, but I'm a little bit concerned that places like South Philly and parts of the NE are losing people in favor of South Jersey (yuk!!!).

And another thing I've noticed is that West Indians (excluding Hispanics) are starting to become a major part of this city. I hope this continue, especially in places like Olney, Logan, Germantown, parts of the NE, and parts of South and SW Philly!!!
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Old 10-02-2008, 09:23 AM
 
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I also womder why the Filipino population has remained still, but the Korean and the Vietnamese populations just rose. If anything, I would consider the Filipino population to be around 28,000 in the Phila CSA.
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Old 10-02-2008, 01:16 PM
 
Location: South Philly
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There is a small Filipino and dwindling Filipino presence in my neighborhood. Most of them have long since moved to the suburbs.

I don't know about the Koreans but I can attest that the Vietnamese population is definitely on the rise.

As far as Mexicans are concerned, i think you might think that Domincans have a stronger presence here because of where you live or because they're more concentrated but hang out at 9th & Ellsworth for 15 minutes and you'll get a little taste of how many mexicans are here. They're all over South Philly and now even in West Philly.

I think there are a lot more Dominicans in Camden than in North Philly/Kensington. Really, the only time I run into Dominicans or Puerto Ricans is when I'm on the el or on the rare occasion that i'm in the Richmond area.
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Old 10-03-2008, 06:46 AM
 
836 posts, read 823,995 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by solibs View Post
There is a small Filipino and dwindling Filipino presence in my neighborhood. Most of them have long since moved to the suburbs.

I don't know about the Koreans but I can attest that the Vietnamese population is definitely on the rise.

As far as Mexicans are concerned, i think you might think that Domincans have a stronger presence here because of where you live or because they're more concentrated but hang out at 9th & Ellsworth for 15 minutes and you'll get a little taste of how many mexicans are here. They're all over South Philly and now even in West Philly.

I think there are a lot more Dominicans in Camden than in North Philly/Kensington. Really, the only time I run into Dominicans or Puerto Ricans is when I'm on the el or on the rare occasion that i'm in the Richmond area.
I think it's a matter of concentration depending on where you're at. The only place where I see Mexicans in this city is in South Philly. I don't know about West Philly (not SW Philly!!!), because that's predominately black, but South Philly is the only place where it's concentrated with Mexicans.

As for Dominicans, I feel they're more spread out in the NE, SW, and South Philly, with their largest concentrations in North Philly and Kensington, therefore, they're larger than Mexicans in Philly and even in this area.

I can understand why Filipinos are moving out of Philly, but what I was referring to was the fact that the Filipino population in the Phila CSA did not grow this year compared to 2000. Just compare the 2000 census (http://censtats.census.gov/data/US/3806162.pdf) with the current one (Philadelphia-Camden-Vineland, PA-NJ-DE-MD CSA - ACS Demographic and Housing Estimates: 2007). The Filipino population didn't even grow. Why is that???!!! The Chinese, Indians, and Vietnamese grew substantially so is there some type of Filipino exodus within the Phila metro area???!!! I seriously doubt it and I believe that Census really messed up on that stat, which is why I figured that the Filipino population would be around 28,000.

As a matter of fact, I think the Mexican population according to Census is a bit of an exaggeration. I know that they've grown quickly, but I'm not sure whether they counted just the ones that are here legally or just all the Mexicans altogether. I'm not really trying to be racist, but I don't believe that Mexicans (the legal ones) actually have a huge presence than Dominicans here in Philly and I also feel that eventually, there's going to be a breaking point when ICE (better known as La Migra with the Mexicans) start making mass deportations of Mexicans in this area, since they're the number one culprits of illegal immigration. It's going to be on the news coming up. I'm betting on it!!!
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