Will Philadelphia ever get back over 2,000,000 in population? (York: 2014, job market)

[TownDweller]

2019 population estimate is 1.57M. For the past 10 years population has increased. By under 10k per year. At that rate, it's gonna be a while.

[Pennsport]

Originally Posted by TownDweller

2019 population estimate is 1.57M. For the past 10 years population has increased. By under 10k per year. At that rate, it's gonna be a while.

True, and it very well might be several decades, but that is assuming we grow at the same rate. I personally feel that Philly is going to tip and have several years of exponential and sustained growth once our city business situation improves just a notch. Even if this doesn't happen, considering the advancements in healthcare and life expectancy rates (which increase each year), I see overall population increasing at a much greater rate than 10k/year.

Don't forget that average life expectancy today is 78.8 years of age (and growing), and in 1995 it was 75.62 years of age. That's a dramatic increase. We're going to have thousands if not tens of thousands of residents who don't expire as soon as they used to.

[kyb01]

Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj

Sure!

I'll admit I'm not educated enough on the surrounding towns to be sure of which ones would fit best as part of the city. I mean, it would be neat imo, but I'm not gonna dig too much deeper. I don't see much of a point since so many people have said it can't ever happen, similar to other cities that could benefit from more land and population; Boston, for example.

So why even talk about it since, as you say, you have a certain level of ignorance about Philadelphia in general?

[kyb01]

Originally Posted by Pennsport

I think it would be virtually impossible for Philly not to hit the 2 million mark considering the trend toward urban living, substantially increased life expectancy, our location and open land in the city. However, this probably applies to most cities and suburbs, so by the time we hit 2mil, it might not really be all that impressive a number.

No, I don't agree. Phila. will not have that kind of population again. But, it is interesting, at least to me, that only 3 cities that were on the top 10 size-wise list a century + ago are still there: NYC, Chicago and Philadelphia.

Ah, no, latest stats say that life expectancy in the US is starting to go down for the first time in a long time.

But, hey, climate change may indeed convince lots of people that this area has advantages that others do not.

[kyb01]

Originally Posted by TownDweller

2019 population estimate is 1.57M. For the past 10 years population has increased. By under 10k per year. At that rate, it's gonna be a while.

The 2020 Census is going to be bonkers and the worst under count ever, imo, even without the citizenship question.

[kyb01]

Originally Posted by Pennsport

True, and it very well might be several decades, but that is assuming we grow at the same rate. I personally feel that Philly is going to tip and have several years of exponential and sustained growth once our city business situation improves just a notch. Even if this doesn't happen, considering the advancements in healthcare and life expectancy rates (which increase each year), I see overall population increasing at a much greater rate than 10k/year.

Don't forget that average life expectancy today is 78.8 years of age (and growing), and in 1995 it was 75.62 years of age. That's a dramatic increase. We're going to have thousands if not tens of thousands of residents who don't expire as soon as they used to.

Check the latest stats wrt life expectancy. It's starting to trend down a probable cause: the majority of Americans (60%)are now a combination of over-weight/obese.

[ApartmentNomad]

Originally Posted by kyb01

Interesting that you chose poorer communities in DelCo rather than more prosperous ones in MontCo that also share borders with the city.

If you are into land grabbing how about Bala Cynwyd or Wynnewood?

Yes, the mainline is really going to want to be absorbed into Philadelphia.

[TownDweller]

Originally Posted by kyb01

But, it is interesting, at least to me, that only 3 cities that were on the top 10 size-wise list a century + ago are still there: NYC, Chicago and Philadelphia.

Ah, no, latest stats say that life expectancy in the US is starting to go down for the first time in a long time.

But, hey, climate change may indeed convince lots of people that this area has advantages that others do not.

Philly has continued to grow and maintain top tier status for over 200 years. And everyone seems to think Boston is the home of the American revolution but Philly is. We just don't get the respect that we deserve.

[rotodome]

World and national population are going up not down, and people have to live somewhere. I think it'll happen. Sooner or later.

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by rotodome

World and national population are going up not down, and people have to live somewhere. I think it'll happen. Sooner or later.

It's still little known fact that world population is actually starting to plateau with birth rates dropping faster in a greater proportion of the world.

But that being said, with changing climate and a greater likelihood of increased political turmoil across the globe, not to mention what seems to be the inevitable decline of non-metropolitan/rural areas across the world, Philadelphia is absolutely one of the most well-positioned cities in the world for its incredible economic stability, relative affordability, wealth (especially by global standards), and cultural richness. This becomes even more true as other Northeastern metros like NYC, Boston and DC become less and less accessible to the middle class with each passing year (and no end in sight).

So I, too, fully expect Philly's population growth to accelerate in the coming years.