Will Philadelphia ever get back over 2,000,000 in population? (Chester, Franklin: renting, low crime)

[ladarron]

^^^^It will take at least 15-20 years!

[a75206]

you'd be amazed how much a 10-year property tax abatement can help spring demand for people to live in town... similarly, and even more importantly, cutting business and personal taxes permanently could easily spur many hundreds of thousands to move back inside the city line... as it is, many businesses relocate just over the border in order to escape taxes, taking the jobs with them... and people hate long commutes, so, many choose to move to the 'burbs where the jobs are.

but the problem is the the city's elected leaders are elected by people who depend on the city for many services...which require taxes to pay for them. and many of those city residents don't contribute to the local tax base quite as much as they pull in city services... and thus the vicious cycle, and the tired old machine politics, and of course the middle class and upper class flight out of the city. This has all of course worked its way in many many other cities, not just Philly. And even in Philly, things have turned around the populations is already growing... perhaps by more than 200,000 between 2000 and 2010. Now the question is whether the city leaders will do what it takes in order to attract another 500,000 to town...

[waronxmas]

Originally Posted by kidphilly

No but in a smaller land area (Phildelphia City 142 sq miles & Delaware Country PA 191 sq miles combined 334 sq miles) there are ~2.2 Million people nearly doubling the city population of Dallas (385 sq miles) and matching th city population of Houston at 600 sq miles.

That's not how you compute land area.

W x L = mi^2

or use the Polygon Area Formula.

Just adding two area's square miles together is not how it works.

[grapico]

it would definitely be cool... i am all about urban revitilization...most americans want their big homes to waller in though.

[rainrock]

If Phillys population is to increase 25% its job growth needs to do the same.
Right now that is just not happening and there doesnt appear to be any great hope on the horizon. The Philadlephia Public School System leaves alot to be desired and is just not producing students capable of contributing to a successful economy or society. It will be decades possibly centuries if ever
before the school system and neighborhoods can be cleaned up.

Just as Center City and nearby neighborhoods improve and gentrify other neighborhoods that were in great shape begin to destabilize. The problem with older cities (there are exceptions) is that wealthier people tend to gravitate to newer areas usually in the suburbs and the poor stay behind and repopulate- eventually the city collapses under its own weight as the taxbase erodes. Thats whats been happening in Philly over the past 30-40 years and imo is still happening.

The Philly suburban counties which are in very good shape,their job growth is equal to or surpasses its population growth which is modest but steady. Chester ,Burlington and Gloucester Counties population growth are in the 13% range, the closer in counties are growing at about 5%-7%. Philly until this last decade had been losing population.

Id be much more encouraged if I saw that Philadelphia Public School Students improved their reading, math and graduation rates as opposed to gaining 500,000 people.

[a75206]

Originally Posted by rainrock

It will be decades possibly centuries if ever
before the school system and neighborhoods can be cleaned up.

Not necessarily. More investment in the schools and in actual education (not administration) could quickly change things around. And it's not like Philly lacks good to great public schools... Central, Microsoft, Masterman, Bodine, etc.. But more investment and effort needs to be focused on achievement.

Basically, the city has already heard this before from numerous consultants and public policy managers... cut the crap on spending that provides little to no returns (Philly gas utility, the city's main airport, etc.) and instead focus on the basics... good public schools, personal safety, clean streets and subways. Everything else can take care of itself... reduce services and reduce taxes that go to those services such as free city-run medical clinics for drug abusers, etc. But this is a very Republican-like approach and would never work in a Democratic stronghold city like Philadelphia...best they can do is nibble at the margins and change taxation burdens here and there, provide zones of low taxes (Keystone Opportunity Zones), etc.

So the city ends up makin g a choice without even thinking about it...the choice of having a ton of deadweight and driving away others, instead of doing exactly the opposite (well, nobody kicks out the deadweights ideally).

[kidphilly]

Originally Posted by waronxmas

That's not how you compute land area.

W x L = mi^2

or use the Polygon Area Formula.

Just adding two area's square miles together is not how it works.

Uh yeah it is, do the math

lets see

Two areas:

one is 12 x 12 = 144
2nd is 12 x 16 = 192

Added together = 336

another area is 12 x 28 = 336

odd how that works

It actually does work; the same amount of square miles fit in the two pieces

[Duderino]

In the short-term? Most likely not.

However, I think it will in the long-term -- probably within the next half-century. The world is urbanizing at a fairly quick pace, and this trend will be even more pronounced once the economy starts to really recover in the US. I strongly believe that cities like Philadelphia, Boston and Chicago (which all experienced stark population losses post-WWII) will begin to regain residents as car-dependent travel becomes more and more prohibitively expensive. Proximity in terms of networks of businesses, hospitals, schools, etc. will also be extremely important in the coming years. These trends will bode well for the aforementioned cities, as they all have strong walkable cores and are well-served by public transit.

Philadelphia also has a lot to gain because of its proximity to New York, being that more and more priced-out residents look to Philadelphia as an attractive urban living alternative. That is a trend that I do not see ending any time soon, particularly as improvements in high-speed rail make commuting to New York from Philly very feasible. In fact, a Philadelphia-New York CSA is probable within the next 50 years.

[coldwine]

I think many people here would be surprised to discover how quickly they'd leap at the chance to move if unleaded hit $5. Especially for those dense, urban areas that provide significant opportunities to go about their daily lives without auto transit.

It's almost summer, folks. Who's ready for the spike in gas prices, and where will it hit this time?

[Cowboys fan in Houston]

It would probably have to annex some other places to get there.

The United States is not as urban today as it was in the 1950's. People discovered suburbs. They can now live just outside the city and have a large sized house, better schools, and more room to spread out. This is the case everywhere, not just Philly.

So unless there is a trend where people prefer living in the city to the suburbs overall, I dont think it will be the case.