Phoenix MLS Predicting Lowest Median September Price in Nine Years (Surprise: renters, mortgages)

[Howard Roark]

Ponderosa,

forget about what Moodys or Case-Shiller says.

What do you see as man on the street?

I see broken homes (divorces), firings (in a small company and about 5 firings this year - one yesterday), salary cuts (my sister in Oregon), and people still looking for work (my buddy in Scottsdale). I personally got a raise last Fall. But my overtime is 0. It was unlimited OT three years ago and I had 255 hours OT in 2008. The positives I can say are my raise, the low prices of Phoenix houses (although you know I think they will go lower), the low yields of ten year notes (making 3.5% yielding dividend stocks attractive).

See? I can be positive sometimes!

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

I saw today where Shiller (Case-Shiller Home Price Index) says he has no idea what is going to happen to home prices. That is probably the best prediction I have heard. So much depends on the recovery or lack thereof and the signals are mixed - profits and cash up, employment stagnant, consumers bleak, CEO's bullish.

[Mugsy]

Here is an eyeopener:

ReconTrust: Upcoming Sales

Click on Maricopa County. This is just for homes owned by
B Of A.

[Ritchie_az]

I agree with Ponderosa. Anyone who claims to know what will happen is full of it....

[OnYourSide]

An article in the newspaper yesterday discussed how it is predicted that the Phoenix housing market will soon fall another 10%. It was from the Arizona Republic newspaper.

[Nanny Goat]

And, the Arizona Republic always gets it right.

[OnYourSide]

Originally Posted by Phoenix lady

And, the Arizona Republic always gets it right.

Good one Phoenix lady. Their record has been pretty off over the past 3 years. However, I think they are wrong again, in that home values will fall more than 10% before we reach a permanent bottom.

[_Charles_]

Home prices wil continue to stagnate or fall here until the employment picture improves. There are just too many folks out of work and other worried about losing their jobs. Additionally there are indications of another wave of foreclosures.
Actual price change in percentages - I don't think anyone can really say.

[OnYourSide]

Originally Posted by _Charles_

Home prices wil continue to stagnate or fall here until the employment picture improves. There are just too many folks out of work and other worried about losing their jobs. Additionally there are indications of another wave of foreclosures.
Actual price change in percentages - I don't think anyone can really say.

You are right, Charles. The job market is really the key for most any housing market, and Phoenix's is pretty bad. Arizona has the 8th worst U-6 unemployment rate in the country.

[Ritchie_az]

Arizona has the 8th worst U-6 unemployment rate in the country.

For those who may not know, U-6 unemployment factors unemployment and under-employment. I'm not sure what qualifies as "under-employment" (seems like it could be relative), and it doesn't sound like a position I'd like to be in (although, on the flip side, I'm sure at times we all feel under-employed, especially when it's time for pay raises....). But it's better to have a job and be under-employed then not have a job at all (Arizona is tied with NJ for 33rd worst in unemployment).
As it relates to this thread, under-employment's factor depends on if the under-employed are earning enough to cover the mortgage (for those who are under-employed and own a home).

[OnYourSide]

Another factor of influence, is that Arizona has the 49th worst unemployment insurance benefit amount, at a maximum of $240 a week. This lowers the utilization rate, as many people deem it to not be worthy to file, and then they don't show up in the unemployment numbers.