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Old 08-07-2012, 09:51 AM
 
1,433 posts, read 2,932,331 times
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Robert Shiller Questions Whether Housing Has Bottomed, Sees Possible Bubbles « naked capitalism

I'm sure no one disagrees.

You may begin.

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Old 08-07-2012, 10:00 AM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
38,207 posts, read 49,697,511 times
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I agree. And I agree with the Fed as well on the wealth effect on consumer attitudes and spending. An irrational run up in home prices is exactly the medicine the US economy needs. Thank goodness we are seeing the recovery take hold in Phoenix first!
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Old 08-07-2012, 12:36 PM
 
Location: Gilbert - Val Vista Lakes
6,069 posts, read 14,566,769 times
Reputation: 3875
I disagree that Phoenix is showing signs of a bubble. The Schiller report is months old and is only reflecting the sales and price activity prior to our normal summer slow down.

The fact that beginning around June our inventory increased, prices for the most part leveled off, and sales slowed, is in my opinion, indicative of normal market reaction.

If prices had kept increasing as dramatic as they were, then yes, we could be showing signs of a bubble.

When the next Schiller report comes out, it will reflect the slow down in Phoenix for the summer.
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Old 08-07-2012, 12:41 PM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
38,207 posts, read 49,697,511 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bill View Post
I disagree that Phoenix is showing signs of a bubble. The Schiller report is months old and is only reflecting the sales and price activity prior to our normal summer slow down.

The fact that beginning around June our inventory increased, prices for the most part leveled off, and sales slowed, is in my opinion, indicative of normal market reaction.

If prices had kept increasing as dramatic as they were, then yes, we could be showing signs of a bubble.

When the next Schiller report comes out, it will reflect the slow down in Phoenix for the summer.
And the press and the Phoenix bashers will promptly label it as the coming of a new housing collapse.
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Old 08-07-2012, 12:47 PM
 
203 posts, read 482,579 times
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The media is funny: in spring, inventory decreases, home sales and prices generally rise (at least the last two years..sort of) and in summer and fall, things level off, inventory rises, prices may decline slightly. If you listened to the media, it reads either as "an astounding increase in price" or "the sky is falling, run away." It's all just media hype one way or the other.
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Old 08-07-2012, 12:48 PM
 
Location: Gilbert - Val Vista Lakes
6,069 posts, read 14,566,769 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
And the press and the Phoenix bashers will promptly label it as the coming of a new housing collapse.
Right on
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Old 08-07-2012, 12:51 PM
F40
 
Location: 85379^85268
826 posts, read 841,328 times
Reputation: 403
I hope it will be easy to sell my hose this winter.
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Old 08-07-2012, 01:03 PM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
38,207 posts, read 49,697,511 times
Reputation: 27268
It's time to change the equation on short sales and foreclosures by letting the tax breaks on forgiven debt expire at the end of the year. Short sales are holding back appreciation and hurting everyone except those who choose this route. The breaks have become counter productive in the recovering PHX market.
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Old 08-07-2012, 01:04 PM
 
Location: In the Deem Hills of NW Phoenix
800 posts, read 1,873,721 times
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"I hope it will be easy to sell my hose this winter."

As long as you aren't asking too much, it should be easy. There are lots of people wanting a good second hose. Be sure to get all the kinks out first, so it shows nice.
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Old 08-07-2012, 01:11 PM
 
Location: In the Deem Hills of NW Phoenix
800 posts, read 1,873,721 times
Reputation: 889
"If you listened to the media, it reads either as "an astounding increase in price" or "the sky is falling, run away."

Very true. Sometimes I wonder who pulls their puppet strings in these directions, and why. They are at least partially to blame for the big housing bubble and burst.
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