where do you see the Housing market going Now after election (Phoenix: cul-de-sac, middle-class)

[cignalife]

I have been following NE Mesa for the past year where we went through a selling frenzy mid-year, but now it seems listings > closes, and the homes being placed on market I think are priced too high... we'll see what happens over the next 3-6 mos.

[jimj]

Originally Posted by miran

Here is my take on the housing trend; I've read that Private-equity funds are planning to invest more than $6-billion on distressed homes in the U.S. Capital LLC, which wants to buy $1.5-billion of rental homes in Arizona, Nevada and California by the second quarter of 2013. Not sure how many they will but in AZ. Arizona real-estate company Treehouse Group LLC is looking to buy $1.5-billion of single-family homes, while others such as KKR & Co., New York-based GTIS Partners, and Los Angeles-based Oaktree Capital Group have also talked of spending hundreds of millions to buy up swaths of homes.
Even Canadian Real Estate private equity firms are buying large blocks of homes and renting them out waiting for the eventual housing market to fully recover.

Funny you mention Treehouse, I've seen a few of their signs on houses for lease in our neighborhood recently. These were evidently purchased outside of a "normal" sale as I never saw them hit the MLS nor did I see any MLS record of their sale or any transaction.

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by jimj

Funny you mention Treehouse, I've seen a few of their signs on houses for lease in our neighborhood recently. These were evidently purchased outside of a "normal" sale as I never saw them hit the MLS nor did I see any MLS record of their sale or any transaction.

They might be buying at trustees sale? I've actually seen some articles suggesting some of those private funds were buying in other areas now because the bidding at trustees sales has been kinda nuts. I think it's a really bad time to be buying rentals, at least in the neighborhoods I watch closely.. Current pricing doesn't leave much room for profits unless you want to be a slumlord.

[Howard Roark]

No I would have not enjoyed my home if I bought last year. I made a lot of money buying stocks. The money I would have paid for a home would have bought me less than what the money I bought stocks bought me.

I always look for opportunity costs in everything I do.

And did you forget that we are living in tough times? I hope the same people who "live for the day" are not the same ones who use government force to get money from me to live on when they run out of money.

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Actually, I was implying that people who focus on saving for tomorrow nearly their whole lives (extreme savers) miss the enjoyments along the way. IMHO, they live punishing lives. To take your situation, you REALLY want a home in Arizona. That's why we see you post and comment about Arizona real estate here. Well then, you should have bought a place last year because it already went up 30% from the over correction. You would have been enjoying your home for the past year already. It you do REO calculations and 1/6th net worth algorithms, you risk going grey before your 1st home! Meanwhile I had my home at age 21 and it's been paid for since I was 30 or 31.

Maybe I have less money in savings. So what? What's the point of living from age 20-50 years old and not enjoying the simple things in life like a home that you call your own? Is life only about socking away money? My place in Surprise has gone up 25% while someone else pays for it though weekly rentals ($20K last year) and a few bucks to boot. So who's having more fun since age 20?



your a smart guy. I know you can figure this one out. Come on Howard. Jump on in the housing market... The water is warm.

[mjd2k]

Originally Posted by Howard Roark

See, it does "float my boat." You are implying I do not "save for tomorrow" - I am an extreme saver. I like watching my investments in stocks, stock funds, municipals, and so on gain value. I particularly like the freedom I have by not having much material possessions. I am not preyed on by gold diggers either. I don't have to worry about no fault divorce or common property laws either (California has both). I don't know how you can both live for today and save for tomorrow. It does not compute.

Hey Howard, no judgement just an opinion regarding "it does not compute"

I have enjoyed investing in real estate and did ok with it. Not big time by any means but ok in that i havent lost money....yet, it's bought my place in Phoenix and paid for my kids education. I also had a lot of fun with it. Given the choice to build a fence at a property or go golfing, I'd enjoy building the fence more. Having and managing a few properties has been my hobby so it's what I do for fun as probably most of the people on these threads do also. Hopefully we make money in the end!

Don't sell yourself short, you seem to be having fun with your speculating. It appears to be your hobby. If im having fun with real estate, maybe i am "living for today and saving for the future". But I do admit I'm getting tired of rentals.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Howard Roark

No I would have not enjoyed my home if I bought last year. I made a lot of money buying stocks. The money I would have paid for a home would have bought me less than what the money I bought stocks bought me.

Housing in Chandler went up about 27% from October of 2011 to October of 2012. If your stocks picks went up over 27%, then you will hit your $3M number in just a few years (not 10). Additionally, Warren Buffet should sit down with you to pick your brain.

Remember not to count the full value of your Roth, Keogh, or 401K in your net worth number. That's because you haven't paid your taxes on it yet. I don't have a nickel in stocks or any 401K. My net worth is in real estate, my business assets, and the bank (two years of living expenses).

Every year my accountant explaines how much I could save in taxes by putting as much money as I could in a Keogh. WRONG! It's a fictitious net-worth. Anybody who can read the tea leaves knows that the government will tax that money just as hard on the backend as we move forward over the next 10 years.

Originally Posted by Howard Roark

I always look for opportunity costs in everything I do.

If a person truly lives their life by that statement (and I bet you do), then they wouldn't have children. I know my kids cost me hundreds of thousands of dollars. They are well worth every single penny. I would feel empty without my family. But to each their own. Not everyone should have kids.

Originally Posted by Howard Roark

And did you forget that we are living in tough times? I hope the same people who "live for the day" are not the same ones who use government force to get money from me to live on when they run out of money.

We are in hard times and that is why I live well under my means. Let's just say I'm not hurting.

[jimj]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Housing in Chandler went up about 27% from October of 2011 to October of 2012. If your stocks picks went up over 27%, then you will hit your $3M number in just a few years (not 10). Additionally, Warren Buffet should sit down with you to pick your brain.

Remember not to count the full value of your Roth, Keogh, or 401K in your net worth number. That's because you haven't paid your taxes on it yet. I don't have a nickel in stocks or any 401K. My net worth is in real estate, my business assets, and the bank (two years of living expenses).

Every year my accountant explaines how much I could save in taxes by putting as much money as I could in a Keogh. WRONG! It's a fictitious net-worth. Anybody who can read the tea leaves knows that the government will tax that money just as hard on the backend as we move forward over the next 10 years.



If a person truly lives their life by that statement (and I bet you do), then they wouldn't have children. I know my kids cost me hundreds of thousands of dollars. They are well worth every single penny. I would feel empty without my family. But to each their own. Not everyone should have kids.



We are in hard times and that is why I live well under my means. Let's just say I'm not hurting.

That's IF you're allowed to keep it at all. Remember, there has been plans floated to take people's 401K money and basically give them an annuity in return. Thankfully these plans have gone nowhere but we live in strange times so it's revival wouldn't surprise me in the least.

[Sunni2012]

Originally Posted by PhinsFan1

Likewise in Gilbert - tremendous amount of building going on, which started in the past 6 months or so. They're throwing houses up almost as quickly as the beginning of the boom, and they've put up "city meeting announcements/rezoning to SFH" signs up on many open parcels of land. I'm really hoping the builders know something we don't and that there will really be a market for all these homes in the very near future. My personal feeling is that the economy stinks right now and our job market isn't strong enough to support those many hundreds, if not thousands, of homes in Gilbert. But my fingers are crossed that I'm wrong

I have to agree here cause the economy isn't strong right now. And with all the new home building going on I can't foresee builders getting what there asking for homes right now. With there many recent increases in prices of about $20k since June. It will be difficult for them to sell now, my feeling is the prices may come down some, seeing that many are concerned were in for rougher times.

[jimj]

Originally Posted by Sunni2012

I have to agree here cause the economy isn't strong right now. And with all the new home building going on I can't foresee builders getting what there asking for homes right now. With there many recent increases in prices of about $20k since June. It will be difficult for them to sell now, my feeling is the prices may come down some, seeing that many are concerned were in for rougher times.

New build prices may come down a bit but (in my area) existing homes are less expensive than the new ones and I don't really expect the existing homes to drop.

[El_Waiboi]

This post is for Howard-

Don't worry buddy, I'm on your side! I consider myself an "extreme saver" as well. But having said that - I am going about my savings much differently that you. About 13 months ago, I invested 100% of my personal net worth into a single family home for me and my family. I'm not a rich guy, and I'm not going to B.S. or beat around the bush, I paid $59k for my home and after the purchase, I didn't have a dollar to my name. However I had enough willpower to save that money and enough foresight to buy my home in cash. I now have no mortgage payment.

So do I own a mansion? Nope. I can't even brag about how prestigious my neighborhood or my zip code is. But my family and I are very content living in our paid home, and now with no mortgage and no rent I am free to save/invest like it's going out of style.

I had previously done the same thing with our vehicles, so we have no payments on those, and also I have no credit card debt or any debt what so ever. So now my only bills are the utilities, and I have a lot of disposable income. The key to savings is not about how much money you make; it is about how much disposable income you are left with after expenses. I.e. Income-Expenses=Disposable Income.
Then, with your high income to expenses ratio, just wisely invest your disposable income, that is the best way to build your own personal fortune.

In my opinion, this is the best path for the extreme saver. Paying rent is for the birds, and not many people realize it, but paying a mortgage is for the birds too. The real ticket is financial self sufficiency and living below your means while ensuring your economic stability and amassing your small fortune.

P.S. - My wife is more of the "live life for today" people, so our household gets the best of both worlds.