Soft Market (Phoenix, Scottsdale: for sale, real estate market, foreclosures)

[dc1225]

Hey guys,

In your opinion, how long do you think the real estate market will be like this? Will Phoenix area ever recover and be like it has bee for the past 5 years?

[silvermountain]

Nope, it will never be what it was in the past 5 years. There are finance guys that say we're in for another drop, up to 50% in values.

[dc1225]

Originally Posted by silvermountain

Nope, it will never be what it was in the past 5 years. There are finance guys that say we're in for another drop, up to 50% in values.

Really? you guys haven't hit rock bottom yet? When is the rock bottom suppose to happen then?

[silvermountain]

I dunno, I have just heard that they are expecting another real estate drop this fall. I know I sold a home back in 2002 for 179,000 , saw it for sale in 2005 for 450,000 , its now on the market (been on the market for 5 months) for 199,000 with a pool added, travertine tile, and granite counters, the works. In looking for a home to buy you see or 8 foreclosures on the market for 100k less than the 4 or 5 owner owned properties on the same street. None of them are selling, but when dose, you can bet it will be a foreclosure, who wants to pay 100k more for an identical house? Yeah the foreclosure may need 10 k or so in work, but its a better value. Then when the foreclosure sells it sets a precedence on value in the neighborhood and all those owners trying to sell their homes just lost 100k in perceived value. Then they have to lower the price of their home, and eventually they can't get lower and bail and bingo another foreclosure. So its really a crap shoot as to when this market will give and start gaining value. Appreciation in the Phoenix metro has usually been between 6-8% and should eventually go back to that once this is over with.

[dc1225]

in your opinion, it'll still be this way within the next 3-5 years?

[silvermountain]

Your guess is as good as mine. I would assume we're in for a rough ride because the news is talking about the country entering in to a depression. I was on this site a year ago and everyone was saying the worst was over with.

[dc1225]

Personally, I'd like to see Scottsdale's prices drop some more! Rental and Buyer market!

[MotleyCrew]

There is the next wave of $500 billion in Option arms coming due, I believe in Oct. 60 percent of them are in CA, not sure what the percentage of homes will be in AZ. If prices drop another 50 percent then I am buying!!!! Anyway a good news blog to read is Dr. Housing Bubble.

[AZgarden]

I think more positively. My daughter works for a major national homebuilder here. The inside figures show that the glut of previously built homes is reducing, cause people are STILL moving here. And they are selling off alot of land previously sited for new houses. So, if they can't hire illegals for construction and the glut is decreasing, then resales should start coming back in the next 6-9 months, IMO. Personally I am holding onto my house until this happens, at which time I will put it on the market and move.

[Nanny Goat]

I heard the bottom will hit in Jan. 2009, then slowly go up again. Everything works in cycles, so what goes down must go up. But, who can really predict when?