What's the housing market doing? When to sell? (Phoenix, Mesa: sales, real estate)

[Guitarmaan]

We have a small house in Chandler that we bought just over a year ago. My wife wants to move out of state, and I don't mind too much, so we're moving I guess.

I haven't kept an eye on property prices over the past year. Have they risen or stagnated? (I don't want to ask if they've dropped). And when is the best time of year to sell?

I don't think we'll have any problems selling the house. It was re-modeled, big yard, nice pool, near mall, relatively lower end of market price etc. But whether we have problems getting what we want for it is another matter!

The seller pays the agent fees, correct? So we have to factor in a few thousand for that. I did get a letter from a private buyer/dealer saying she'd like to buy our house for cash. That would avoid agent fees, but she'd obviously have to pay us a low enough amount for her to sell it on at a profit later. So I'm curious how much these "flippers" offer.

Anyway, advice is appreciated as always

[sandy6879]

From my experience, in our neighborhood, prices have increased over the past year. However, you may want to check with a realtor and have them do a market analysis for you. It's generally a free service from what I understand, and they can give you an idea of what your house is worth, without going through the cost of an appraisal.

[vince3vince]

why don't you just type your address in zillow for starters, their 'zestimate' is usually a bit low but then you can look at recent sales in your neighborhood, find the avg price / sq ft (look at their pics to see if they have similar upgrades as you and just adjust accordingly) and compute your house value. Just understand complete gut remodeling, single/two story, pool, lot size, etc all affect avg price / sq ft when you look at comps.

[vince3vince]

oh and no, prices have drastically increased in one year, many articles citing 30% appreciation. Some markets are seeing much greater appreciation than others and the desirable areas are already at pre-crisis level. I recently read an article that said the greatest long term appreciation was in the "golden rectangle" which centers on Scottsdale/Rural Rd- which includes Ahwatukee, Chandler, Tempe, parts of Mesa, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Cave Creek, and Carefree.

Here's the article
http://roselinecristanelli.com/2013/...metro-phoenix/

[Jkgourmet]

Estimates from zillow are worthless. Find a good realtor and get the market analysis. Maybe interview two more good realtors and review their market analysis. Hire one. Unless your house is a dump, that flipper / investor isn't interested in paying you market value for your home.

You'll pay 6% of the final sales price to the realtors involved in getting the house sold. Find a good one and they will earn every cent of that money. Listen to what they tell you to do before you show the house, and make sure the house looks like a model home every single time a potential buyer sets foot in the door. No pets, no trace of pets.

You've owned the place for only one year? Count yourself very very lucky if you break even. Don't expect to take any profit from this deal.

Good luck!

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by vince3vince

oh and no, prices have drastically increased in one year, many articles citing 30% appreciation. Some markets are seeing much greater appreciation than others and the desirable areas are already at pre-crisis level. I recently read an article that said the greatest long term appreciation was in the "golden rectangle" which centers on Scottsdale/Rural Rd- which includes Ahwatukee, Chandler, Tempe, parts of Mesa, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Cave Creek, and Carefree.

Here's the article
Areas with the Most Real Estate Appreciation in Metro Phoenix | Roseline Cristanelli Sells Phoenix Real Estate

Some areas are up in the past year like Chandler (see Show Me the Data – Altos Research ). While others are down like Phoenix proper (see Show Me the Data – Altos Research ).

Each neighborhood inside of the specific town is different. But certainly for the OP, I predict he may break even after paying selling fees.

[Galaxie Girl]

Generally, prices have appreciated over the past year or so, and that appreciation is starting to slow (meaning, prices are still going up, but not as fast as they had been).

Yes, you pay the listing agent when they sell the place (typically around 6% of the selling price, and they split that percentage with the buyer's agent).

Try looking at other houses in your neighborhood that have sold in the last few months to get an idea of your home's value. Only look at homes that are comparable (similar amenities, same number of bedrooms and bathrooms, similar square footage, etc.).

I wouldn't jump on that letter you got about someone wanting to buy it with cash. You can likely net a much better amount by listing the house on the MLS with a realtor and letting buyers compete to buy your house.

I can't speak on whether or not you'll make a profit or break even on the sale since I don't know what you bought the place for, and how desperate you are to sell.

[homebeyer2013]

The "we buy homes" people are a big rip-off. Their only value would be in knowing that you can actually get double what they offer you. Zillow may be "worthless" but their stock is above 80 Dollars per share, and they are withing 3% in many neighborhoods. The more uniform and standard the neighborhood, the closer they are. It's just another tool, like what the county assessor says. Realtors are often off by miles, too. I've bought at 70% below BPO before. Plan on your closing costs to sell to be in the 8-10% range. The amount you paid will be the biggest factor on profit, especially if it has only been a year or two. There is a constant supply of buyers in Chandler. Why don't you describe it for us, or show us a link and we'll give you an appraisal. I've bought 6 homes in Arizona. Or pay an Appraiser 450 and you still have no guarantee that someone will buy it.

[KurtAZ]

Can you rent it out? There are a number of Property Management companies that will take care of that for you? I know we are waiting to sell our old home until next spring or later depending on what the market does. In the meantime the mortgage and some extra are covered by our renters. Typically the big house buying rush is in the Spring as families that are looking at moving finish out the school year in their prior location and moving in the summer.

[S. Chris Webb]

Zillow is less than reliable, especially in the Phoenix area. Three things determine whether your house will sell - Location, list price, and condition. Zillow can only know list price and is clueless about the other two.

Appraisals can only be done by licensed Appraisers. Not real estate agents, not people on a forum. Real Estate Agents can do Comparable Market Analyses, or Broker Price Opinions. Many will do so for free, in hopes of getting your listing. CMA's, BPO's, and even Appraisals are one person's opinion, and can be unrepresentative of what the house will actually sell for. Often houses sell for much more, or much less.

You may or may not realize a profit, break even, or lose money when you sell. It is dependent on a lot of factors.

Private Home buying companies usually only offer extremely lowball offers.

Using a knowledgeable, experienced Real Estate Agent and Escrow company will usually get the most money for your home, will usually make the process less of a hassle for you, and, conforming to industry standards, should help protect you from legal problems arising from your sale.

Home prices in the Valley have indeed gone up a lot in the past two years - especially in neighborhoods that suffered the most depreciation in the bubble. Appreciation in the Valley has typically gone up anywhere from 5% to 40%. 2011-2013 enjoyed a fast-paced seller's market, with limited inventory and a lot of competition between buyers. That said, around August of 2013, a large number of prospective home buyers dropped out of the pool (because of rising interest rates, higher prices, discouraged with the low inventory, unsure about the economy, or whatever other reasons), and we are currently in a transition of a Seller's market to leveling out to a "normal" market. Sellers are finally starting to drop their List prices for the first time in a couple of years. Other sellers are holding off their Listings altogether, hoping the buyer rush will come back. In a typical year, sales stagnate somewhat between Thanksgiving and the end of the year, but this year the buyer drop-off started early. It is difficult to predict what will happen in Spring of 2014, because of the inconsistent economy.

In my opinion, it is still a good time to sell while there is still limited inventory, before it turns into a true Buyer's market. If you list it now, do expect to be patient, even if your home is priced exactly where it should be. The days of a dozen offers on the first day listed, in most cases, have come to an end. My peers have been echoing this sentiment for a couple of months now.

Not sure what else to say, except that if you want to try the waters, have a few agents do a CMA or BPO for you. If you like the numbers overall and think they will work for you when you factor in the 8-10% in closing costs (including agent fees), use the agent that seems to have the most knowledge, and importantly, has a good rapport with you (and communicates in the manner you prefer - such as via email, text, or by phone only). Ask for a listing presentation, and ask what they will do to sell your home. Don't go with the one because they've given you the highest estimate of value. Also don't be fooled into going with a nationally known, huge company - your home can be marketed just as effectively by a one-man-show.

I wish you all the best, and if you decide to list, that your home sells fast.