Phoenix in 2030 (Tucson, Gilbert, Marana: real estate market, mortgage, hotels)

[TerryTurtle27]

In 2030 Arizona will have 10.7 million people, a 109% increase from the year 2000. The majority (approximately 8 million) will reside in the Phoenix metropolitan area. Scary, huh?

http://www.census.gov/population/pro.../PressTab1.xls

The megopolitan area will interconnect Flagstaff to Tuscon.

[vegaspilgrim]

Originally Posted by cxray

People were saying that 20 years ago. I think the area between Casa Grande and Phoenix will be well developed but Tucson will not be another Phoenix suburb.

That won't happen unless if the Gila River Indian reservation decides to give up their land. Unless if they start selling off the reservation to developers, there will always be those 25+ miles of undeveloped land separating the southern border of Chandler with the northern city limits of Casa Grande.

There is too much distance between the two cities. 90 miles is not a short distance. That area won't be developed because there are no jobs out there. At some point, you move too far from the epicenter to support itself. I don't see the area beyond Casa Grande being developed

Phoenix is not a city that has just one "epicenter"-- it has many different job centers spread throughout the valley. Also, people misunderstood what is means when Tucson and Phoenix grow into each other. It's not that Tucson will become a suburb of Phoenix, it's that those places smack dab in the middle, like Eloy, Picacho Peak, etc, will turn into satelite suburbs serving both Phoenix and Tucson. Eventually, there will be a non-stop stream of development paralleling I-10 the whole way. Casa Grande is already a suburb of Phoenix, IMO. Until a few years ago, it will definitely its own town-- just another Pinal County farm town, but will the huge amount of development there-- the new mall sealing the deal-- I'd say it is now officially a Phoenix suburb. If you look at the web sites of major home developers (such as richmondamerican.com), they actually market new subdivisions in Maricopa and Casa Grande as Phoenix-- East Valley. I think other towns even farther out, like Eloy, Florence (the actual town of Florence-- not the Hunt Hwy stuff that has a Florence address) still are just rural towns... for now. That will probably change too within the next decade or two.

[Greatday]

Originally Posted by _Charles_

What do you all think Phoenix (and the rest of the Valley) will be like in 2030?

Perspective - 2030 isn't that far off, 23 years from now - looking back 23 years ago was 1984. The year I graduated from college - which I clearly remember.

So looking forward - 2030 what do you think?

I am going to refrain from responding for the time being . But, let me give you some links help you (and others) know what has happened in the past:

Leapfrogging, Urban Sprawl, and Growth Management: Phoenix, 1950-2000

Leapfrogging, Urban Sprawl, and Growth Management: Phoenix, 1950-2000 American Journal of Economics and Sociology, The - Find Articles

The above may give some insight into the future

[vegaspilgrim]

2030? How about five years from now? First off, I'm willing to bet $10 that five years from now, gas will be over $5.00 a gallon, permanently. Within a very SHORT time, we are going to have to start changing the assumptions of transportation. I'm not sure if the answer is going to be solar energy, alternative fuels, a mass bus system, a mass light rail system covering the entire valley, or what, but something will have to give.

[GT350]

Originally Posted by MaxPower123

Phoenix and Tucson will be one huge metropolis. Casa Grande, Florence, Coolidge, etc are going to see population booms

Not in 23 years...no way. I've been here since the 70's when there was nothing in the east valley. the 70's was the Tempe boom. the 80's was Chandler's boom, the 90's Gilbert, and this decade it's Queen Creek. Next decade probably Florence. Coolidge has too much Reso between here and there to become own city combined. Casa Grande will probably annex Az City soon.

[AZ_singlemother]

Originally Posted by _Charles_

What do you all think Phoenix (and the rest of the Valley) will be like in 2030?

Perspective - 2030 isn't that far off, 23 years from now - looking back 23 years ago was 1984. The year I graduated from college - which I clearly remember.

So looking forward - 2030 what do you think?

Warmer temps, worst traffic, higher crime. Same trend as from the last 30 years to today.

[_Charles_]

Indian Reservation lands cannot be sold to developers - not ever. Also it is not necessarily a good thing for all local prime agricultural land to wiped out. Food and dairy products don't fall from the ceiling at Safeway or Bashas. Locally produced agricultural products are beneficial in many ways. Be assured this thread was not started to talk about water.
It will be interesting to see what transpires over the next 2 decades.

[ibarrio]

90 miles is not a great distance. Many cities in the Los Angeles Area are 90 miles apart.

You see two lanes turn in to three lanes 128 miles out of Los Angeles (I-10).

The Metrolink train runs from Lancaster to Oceanside (154 miles) and from Santa Barbara to San Bernardino (154 miles)

But it is going to take more then 8 million people to connect Phoenix and Tucson. Maybe 13-15 million up to 18 million.

[sierraAZ]

Originally Posted by cxray

People were saying that 20 years ago. I think the area between Casa Grande and Phoenix will be well developed but Tucson will not be another Phoenix suburb. There is too much distance between the two cities. 90 miles is not a short distance. That area won't be developed because there are no jobs out there. At some point, you move too far from the epicenter to support itself. I don't see the area beyond Casa Grande being developed

Where'd you see those 90 miles?! We're probably about 20 miles apart as we speak! I guess, people are right about the reservation land possibly being the reason for leaving some pockets here and there.

I just got curious and checked how Pulte markets Red Rock. It's Tucson... Greatday's paper is very interesting. Will read it when I get a chance. It reminded me though that just before the boom came to a screeching halt, there was no other place to go East of Tucson but Benson. If I'm not mistaken, the land in between is a state trust land. In any event, Tucson can't grow any further in this direction, soooo.... we're coming up! Fasten your seat belts!

[BillyBaroo]

Originally Posted by sierraAZ

I just got curious and checked how Pulte markets Red Rock. It's Tucson...

Red Rock is like a suburb of Marana, Eloy is next in line. Just think what Marana was like ten years ago and look at it now. It looked ugly from driving by it on the freeway, now there's a lot of very nice homes and a Ritz-Carlton is being built. One of the biggest golf tournaments in the world is in Marana and Tiger Woods is building a home there. People would have just laughed at you if you predicted that ten years ago.

People laugh now when you say anything positive about Eloy's future, just like Marana, it looks ugly when you drive by it on the freeway. I think it has a big future as a transportation and distribution center. AZDOT wants to put a bypass from Wilcox around the northside of the Catalina Mountains. That bypass could then go around to the south and west of Phoenix and would relieve a lot of the strain on the highways caused by the trucks passing through. Eloy is close to the I-8 junction and where the bypass may go, also, Union Pacific wants to build a huge switching yard near Picacho. If they actually build the Decades amusement park, that area could get real interesting.

There's plenty of water in that part of southern Pinal County. They aren't blading virgin desert, most of the growth is a result of transitioning agricultural land and using the water rights that come with it. A housing development will end up using less water than the cotton fields that use to occupy the same land.

Twenty years from now, I think a lot of the communities along the I-10 corridor will become more self-sufficient as more jobs are created. Chandler was a suburb of Phoenix, now Casa Grande is a suburb of Chandler. Marana was a suburb of Tucson, now it's become it's own city. Red Rock, Picacho, Eloy will soon become the suburbs of those new cities and should develop there own economic base in the coming years.