How much slower is our Phoenix RE market Right Now? (mortgages, student loan)

[new2colo]

Many millenials can't buy because of student loans, no jobs, and the fact that most of them have no desire to live in some soulless suburb (all of metro Phoenix). Interest rates are low and still few people are buying. I'm glad people are finally starting to realize that pattern of real estate "experts" and "economists" pushing the recovery year out with every passing year. As I repeatedly state, we cannot sit on our hands and just magically expect things to improve. We elect the same politicians who spew the same rhetoric election after election, who really do nothing to strengthen our economy. Without a stronger economy, people are not going to move here in droves. Meanwhile ADOT keeps spewing tons of money conducting all of these transportation studies for roads and freeways in uninhabited parts of the Valley as if we're still growing like it's 2005. I guess we're now taking a "build it and they will come" philosophy. We're going to need more than 70 degrees and sunshine in January to get people to come out here.

This will honestly turn into the Detroit of the Southwest if things don't start turning around soon. Sad.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Wally Sconce

WTHeck is Canadian Mist? Is that some cheap faux import that Americans slurp up like water? Alcohol is one of the few things left that are still a good deal for Canadians in Phoenix considering it costs more than double in much of Canada because of all the taxes. 1.75l of Vodka at the Walmart in AZ sells for under 20 bucks where as in my neck of the North woods it pushes 50 for the same bottle.

Actually, it's a Ontario 3 year aged whiskey. In some circles, Mist is rated in the top 10 of Canadian Whiskeys. It's cheaper. I figured you would like it.

I have noticed that the Canuck's like to tax their people and visitors. It's why American's don't like to travel to Canada Why tourists don

Originally Posted by Wally Sconce

Where are the buyers? Keeping their Canadian wallets closed because of the over valued US dollar.

If you are dealing with a Hispanic employee in PHX and notice someone nearby tapping their bent elbow, it's because they put you in a box with other fiscally conservative Canadians. Phoenix's inexpensive RE prices seem to attract the cheapskates all across the country and Canada. I'm slowly concluding that the inexpensive cost of living in PHX has its downsides too.

[PHX Newbie]

MN-born and raised should have read the link about decreased tourist visits to Canada before using it to confirm his theory about high taxes driving Americans away. The article states that the increased value of the Canadian dollar over the last decade (as opposed to the previous couple of decades) is the primary factor. In the late 90s, an American dollar would buy around 1.30-1.40 dollars Canadian. So, a 90 dollar Canadian Hotel room cost about 70 US dollars. Everyone loves a discount, so American visitors to Canada increased in numbers (and dollars spent). When the Canadian dollar increased in value (and traded higher than the US$ for a while), Americans realized that they were no longer getting a discount on the Canadian side of Niagara falls, Toronto, Montreal or Nova Scotia, and started spending their money at home. Coincidentally, that was about the same time the US economy took a hit, and fewer people had any extra money to spend on luxuries like vacation travel anyway.

Referring to his remark about cheapskate Canadians being attracted to the Pheonix RE prices - cheapskates don't usually spend money on second homes. Most Canadian buyers (like buyers from MN) were lucky enough to have done well in life and had some money available to invest in a vacation/retirement home. And they hate the cold!!! Those who own properties suck up the cyclical downturn in the exchange rate and likely visit as often and spend the same amount as when the rate was more favorable.

But, as someone previously mentioned, there are likely fewer Canadian buyers right now precisely because the initial outlay for a home is much higher when the exchange rate is as unfavorable (to Canadians) as it is currently. When you think about it, a house might seem very reasonable at, say 150,000 dollars, but when Canadians would need to pay 165,000-170,000 Canadian dollars, the value is not as obvious.

But the point that the AZ economy is not dependent upon Canadian buyers/tourists is mostly correct. The high numbers of visitors do spend a lot of money (and the stats about Canadians going through Sky Harbor was stunning), but that is still likely a VERY small percentage of the overall PX/AZ economy.

[MotleyCrew]

Some moron on CBS news was going on about how all the newly arriving illegals will be our next housing boom because after amnesty they will be getting real live loans on homes now so we can all expect the next run up in prices soon...soon he said. I was laughing so loud I could hardly hear him......So forget the Canadians, we have the illegals now.

[actinic]

Originally Posted by MotleyCrew

Some moron on CBS news was going on about how all the newly arriving illegals will be our next housing boom because after amnesty they will be getting real live loans on homes now so we can all expect the next run up in prices soon...soon he said. I was laughing so loud I could hardly hear him......So forget the Canadians, we have the illegals now.

Tell that to the Canadians. If the US economy doesn't perk up, Americans will be crossing their border illegally to find jobs. At least they will find a country that understands the principle of sound fiscal management.

[actinic]

Originally Posted by new2colo

I'm glad people are finally starting to realize that pattern of real estate "experts" and "economists" pushing the recovery year out with every passing year.

Yes, at today's FOMC meeting Fed officials expressed concern that inflation may stay low "for quite some time" despite efforts to jump-start the economy. Sound familiar?

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by actinic

Tell that to the Canadians. If the US economy doesn't perk up, Americans will be crossing their border illegally to find jobs. At least they will find a country that understands the principle of sound fiscal management.

Look up the debt per person in Canada and let's talk about sound fiscal management. Same with Japan and all of Europe. The debt is flowing bigtime in every 1st world country that I bothered to check.

[kpl1228]

Way too many pre-existing homes in PHX.
This will take decades and it's never gonna be like it was.
Thank God, BTW.

[actinic]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Look up the debt per person in Canada and let's talk about sound fiscal management. Same with Japan and all of Europe. The debt is flowing bigtime in every 1st world country that I bothered to check.

I did, they're in much better shape. That's why you see so many here. We're 58 trillion is debt and you think Canada is worse?

By the way, in Canada if you're home value drops below your mortgage balance and you walk you're still on the hook. That's one of the reasons they didn't have a housing implosion.

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by actinic

I did, they're in much better shape. That's why you see so many here. We're 58 trillion is debt and you think Canada is worse?

By the way, in Canada if you're home value drops below your mortgage balance and you walk you're still on the hook. That's one of the reasons they didn't have a housing implosion.

Nonsense. Canadians have way more (mortgage) debt than Americans. They are way way more leveraged than we are. Now that the air is coming out of the commodity bubble they will start hurting up north big time. We look very pretty here in Phoenix by comparison. You will hardly find a place in the developed world with less leverage than here.