How much slower is our Phoenix RE market Right Now? (2015, houses)

[stevek64]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

Phoenix needs to become more attractive for younger people. We lack almost any other Western Metro area for growth of Millennial population. Even Albuquerque (really- who wants to live there compared to Phoenix?!?) is growing its Millennial population 3x as fast as we do. We cannot rely on retirees only. Retirees tend not to have more children so no follow-on generation is born locally. Why do oozles of Millennials go to places like Portland or SF even if they endure sky-high rents and intense job competition while at the same time shunning Phoenix? Let's analyze and repair this. Then we can start accommodating them and thereby kick-starting our RE market again.

Quality over quantity. The key I think is young educated people with good paying jobs ready for them. Why do you feel growing a population of young people, educated or not, with low wages/lack of jobs for them as what's happening in Portland is something Phoenix should strive for?

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/21/ma...the-young.html

"Heartwarming planning, however, can only go so far. Portland’s paradox is that it attracts so many of “the young and the restless,” as demographers call them, that it has become a city of the overeducated and underemployed — a place where young people are, in many cases, forced into their semiretirement. A July report by the Oregon Employment Department fretted about the state’s low personal income and employment-to-population ratio. The average income of Oregonians in recent years “may have been a ‘victim’ of the state’s attractiveness, and a resulting population influx” by new residents who don’t earn much, the report said."


Same for Albuquerque, New Mexico that you referenced:

Unemployment rates jump across New Mexico - Albuquerque Business First

"The Albuquerque metro area’s unemployment rate jumped to 7.6 percent from 6.1 percent,"

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by stevek64

Quality over quantity. The key I think is young educated people with good paying jobs ready for them. Why do you feel growing a population of young people, educated or not, with low wages/lack of jobs for them as what's happening in Portland is something Phoenix should strive for?

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/21/ma...the-young.html

"Heartwarming planning, however, can only go so far. Portland’s paradox is that it attracts so many of “the young and the restless,” as demographers call them, that it has become a city of the overeducated and underemployed — a place where young people are, in many cases, forced into their semiretirement. A July report by the Oregon Employment Department fretted about the state’s low personal income and employment-to-population ratio. The average income of Oregonians in recent years “may have been a ‘victim’ of the state’s attractiveness, and a resulting population influx” by new residents who don’t earn much, the report said."


Same for Albuquerque, New Mexico that you referenced:

Unemployment rates jump across New Mexico - Albuquerque Business First

"The Albuquerque metro area’s unemployment rate jumped to 7.6 percent from 6.1 percent,"

Well, the question remains: why do young people prefer personal hardship in Portland to low rents and COL in Phoenix? Why don't ASU grads stay local but move to Portland?

[stevek64]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

Well, the question remains: why do young people prefer personal hardship in Portland to low rents and COL in Phoenix? Why don't ASU grads stay local but move to Portland?

I'm guessing the reasons vary but I think one common answer is more than a few young people aren't very goal oriented, don't quite know what they want in life, and wander around a bit in life. I also think many people in general are sheep and follow what their friends are doing in life, even if that means walking over a cliff, especially at a young age when they are trying to find peer acceptance. And yes, paying higher rent and COL for the "privilege". We were all young once and many of us made not the greatest decisions and floated around a bit barely making ends up/not searching out better opportunies.

Whatever the reason(s), I think the deeper question to be asking here is do we want tons of unemployed/low employed young people in Phoenix like the analysis says about Portland just to say we are a mecca in attracting young people? How would that really help our real estate market grow beyond the low end rent district, as the article states many of the young people in Portland are either underemployed or unemployed?

And I think Portland is much more liberal than Phoenix, "progressive" I guess is the buzz word today marketers like to push people to use, so why aren't the jobs/companies trampling over each other into Portland like many suggest they should vs Phoenix? The "if we only had better politics in Phoenix", "if we only had more educated this/that", more money thrown at "it" in Phoenix doesn't seem to be working in Portland as they have all of these elements but the companies aren't arriving. I think the answer is A doesn't always follow B as many people suggest on this board...things in life aren't often so simplistic and Portland is a great example of this. And to ask again, bringing this philosphy over to Phoenix, it will help our real estate market and the general Phoenix metro by....???

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/21/ma...oung.html?_r=0

"Portland, meanwhile, has the opposite problem. It has more highly educated people than it knows what to do with. Portland is not a corporate town, as its neighbors Seattle and San Francisco have become. While there are employment opportunities in the outdoor-apparel business (Nike, Adidas and Columbia Sportswear are all nearby) or the semiconductor industry (Intel has a large presence in Hillsboro), most workers have far fewer opportunities."

So given Portland has everything some people say a great city should have(educated young work force, "progressive" politics", etc) to supposedly attract great employers and create a robust real estate market of said age group beyond the low rent district....but it ain't happening.

[actinic]

Builder concessions, increasing inventory, sales down sharply - Homebuilders Offer Freebies as Booming U.S. Markets Cool - Bloomberg

It didn't take long for the bubble after the bubble to burst. Rinse, repeat.

[mkarch]

Calculated Risk just covered this yesterday. It's one of the markets he uses as a standard measure. Overall it looks a lot like you'd expect following a massive bubble.

Calculated Risk: Phoenix Real Estate in September: Sales down 1%, Cash Sales down Sharply, Inventory up 13%

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by mkarch

Calculated Risk just covered this yesterday. It's one of the markets he uses as a standard measure. Overall it looks a lot like you'd expect following a massive bubble.

Calculated Risk: Phoenix Real Estate in September: Sales down 1%, Cash Sales down Sharply, Inventory up 13%

Thanks for posting and I see a few more listings pop up in my neighborhood in North Phoenix along with a few new for rent signs. Nothing dramatic though.

[HX_Guy]

I log into ARMLS every couple days and I have noticed the Active and UCB (Under Contract Accepting Backup Offers inching up, but nothing drastic. It's at 26,929 right now and it was about 26,3XX a couple weeks ago from what I remember...seems to inch up by 50 or so per day.

Still seems massively low compared to 6X,XXX we had during the height of the bubble though.

[sh9730]

I also look at a couple of sources almost daily or regularly and seems to me we are just "normalizing". Yes, things are basically flat right now. Check ARMLS reports and sales prices, both average and median are basically flat the last few months but still up from last year. Days on market are also steady in the mid 80 day range for the last several months.

Inventory is up a bit - but not drastically as HX says.

In Pinal county in Sept Average and median sales prices were virtually identical from August - sales were just BARELY up (from 450 to 471) month over month - and inventory is up about 5%.

We ll have to see what happens over the next few months to truly get a real picture.

In the meantime foreclosures continue to go down - people are much more able to make payments than a few years ago - so equity is continuing to be built by most.

[HX_Guy]

Yeah equity wise it's been good...we've only had 1 comp sell in our neighborhood in the past year since we bought but we're up roughly 30% going by a quick per sq ft selling price, and I think ours would actually get a bit more as it has more upgrades/single level so can't be upset about that!

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

As I always like to watch, Show Me the Data – Altos Research which shows the ASKING price. Hence it is forward looking. Nothing to worry about in Pheonix for October of 2014. It's the slow season in RE. But we are off our highs. I'm still going with my predictions early this year that we will be down in 2014, not up.