How much slower is our Phoenix RE market Right Now? (Chandler: short sale, renters)

[actinic]

Originally Posted by TexasWest

Agents I have spoken to seem to think 2015 will be worse than 2014. Maybe after that things will get back on track.

They are also boasting about the year over year increase in median sales prices when in fact it's only because Sept & Oct 2013 prices were in a dip. Come December it could go negative and stay that way for quite some time. This secondary bubble has started to deflate. Hopefully it won't be as magnified. Nevertheless AZ, FL, and NV remain way too susceptible to adverse economic influences when it comes to housing.

[jimj]

I don't know how bad the market is way out here in the west valley when a house 2 doors down from me sold in 6 days for asking price which is $40k more than was paid for the home 3 years ago.
Not bad in my opinion...
I do have to qualify this with the information that the sold price was $50k less +/- than the new homes being built all around us and with a larger yard than the new builds.

[vince3vince]

Originally Posted by actinic

They are also boasting about the year over year increase in median sales prices when in fact it's only because Sept & Oct 2013 prices were in a dip. Come December it could go negative and stay that way for quite some time. This secondary bubble has started to deflate. Hopefully it won't be as magnified. Nevertheless AZ, FL, and NV remain way too susceptible to adverse economic influences when it comes to housing.

Doubt it, it took nearly 6 years, from 2000 to 2006, to inflate and pop the first bubble. With only 2 years of of post-recession profiteering, we will not see anything in terms of a bubble pop. Not enough inventory of "new" potential defaults yet. Wait another 4 years (if we remain the it area again) or possibly longer as some are not as foolish the second time around. I think homes are now worth their peak price and its justified by today's it booming economy and inflation compared to 06/07.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by vince3vince

Doubt it, it took nearly 6 years, from 2000 to 2006, to inflate and pop the first bubble. With only 2 years of of post-recession profiteering, we will not see anything in terms of a bubble pop. Not enough inventory of "new" potential defaults yet. Wait another 4 years (if we remain the it area again) or possibly longer as some are not as foolish the second time around. I think homes are now worth their peak price and its justified by today's it booming economy and inflation compared to 06/07.

We agree. The PHX area is not in a bubble. Maybe a slow leak and that's not for certain. I still think as an agregate, PHX housing is still a little undervalued but that doesn't change the fact that housing might go down a little over 2014. TBD on 2015. 2015 and beyond will depend if Japan and Europe slips into another recession that many people are predicting. China's economy is fairly stagnant so that isn't the global fuel. Right now the US hasn't caught a world cold yet. To me at least, the global economy is the real wild card. Currently, US consumer confidence is fine and the great recession pent-up demand isn't filled yet. That's why we are not feeling what the rest of the world thinks. That might change in a quarter or two.

[Potential_Landlord]

Read a realtor pamphlet yesterday. What's quite interesting is that recently we see less supply hit the market. That's a positive. Also rents are going up which makes the low end more attractive for buyers. Last interest rates are and probably stay low. What we need to work on most IMO is getting median wages up more as this is really a Phoenix weak spot, compared to the national average. Overall not too bad of a perspective I would say, but not expecting dramatic price increases.

[TexasWest]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

Read a realtor pamphlet yesterday. What's quite interesting is that recently we see less supply hit the market. That's a positive. Also rents are going up which makes the low end more attractive for buyers. Last interest rates are and probably stay low. What we need to work on most IMO is getting median wages up more as this is really a Phoenix weak spot, compared to the national average. Overall not too bad of a perspective I would say, but not expecting dramatic price increases.

Sounds like the pamphlet was printed a while ago, this story from AZ central says the good news is inventory was down in September from August to 23,555.Phoenix housing market is slow, but there are positive signs

Well today Oct 18th we are up to 27,553 and going up like a rocket !! Homes priced right will sell but I think some over priced houses will have to come down in price to have any hope of selling.

If you want to check the inventory number just click on this website and it shows you the total on the MLS Search Arizona AZ Homes Search Arizona MLS Homes AZ

Of course a lot of houses are also listed on sites as Make Me Move or just have a sign outside and are not in this total number.

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by TexasWest

Sounds like the pamphlet was printed a while ago, this story from AZ central says the good news is inventory was down in September from August to 23,555.Phoenix housing market is slow, but there are positive signs

Well today Oct 18th we are up to 27,553 and going up like a rocket !! Homes priced right will sell but I think some over priced houses will have to come down in price to have any hope of selling.

If you want to check the inventory number just click on this website and it shows you the total on the MLS Search Arizona AZ Homes Search Arizona MLS Homes AZ

Of course a lot of houses are also listed on sites as Make Me Move or just have a sign outside and are not in this total number.

That's not good. Incidentally I see more For Sale signs in my neighborhood. They really crept up of the the last two weeks. What's up with this rapid increase? Also how are our rents doing? -Thanks.

[vince3vince]

I see people take their homes down for a bit and re-list them. All those numbers tells me they took them off the market in August (end of the school season rush) and put them back on the market (beginning of the snow bird rush).

[actinic]

Originally Posted by vince3vince

I see people take their homes down for a bit and re-list them. All those numbers tells me they took them off the market in August (end of the school season rush) and put them back on the market (beginning of the snow bird rush).

That happens every year which is why I posted the year over year increase in inventory (13.2%) in a previous post for a more meaningful comparison.

[actinic]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

What's up with this rapid increase? Also how are our rents doing? -Thanks.

Re-read my post from August - https://www.city-data.com/forum/36243818-post26.html

Investors are drying up in a city which is and has been disproportionately investor driven. Also, recent price gains have encouraged more sellers to test the waters. More supply -> price weakness. Sellers will either pull the listing (if they're able) or drop the price. It's clear the metro area's growth (if any) hasn't been sufficient to provide enough qualified buyers to erode the growing oversupply. The bubble is leaking.