Will the West Valley Grow Despite Luke AFB?

[wit-nit]

Several reports the past 3-5 year by Maricopa County officials estimate that by the year 2050 there will be an estimated million plus more residents in the West Valley reaching all the way to Wickenburg.


According to Greater Phoenix Economic Council, the West Valley will see an increase in population with more than 1.3 million people moving to the area over the next 25 years. The West Valley is expected to be responsible for 52 percent of the projected population growth in Maricopa County.
http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/n...usinesses.html

[JGMotorsport64]

I spent a large part of my life right north of Luke AFB. You get used to it. I actually liked it.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by new2colo

The only development that seems to have occurred along the 303 corridor are warehouses and a few car dealerships. There were plans for a large mall in that area prior to the recession. Phoenix was just rated as being one of the most oversaturated markets for retail, so I doubt the mall will be constructed ever. With primarily commercial and light industrial uses, I don't see why Luke would impede development at all. I think demand on that side of town is grossly overstated anyway. Nearly all large development in the Valley is east of the 17. There has been a pretty substantial uptick in development within developed areas as opposed to outward sprawl. The pre recession growth in Phoenix is gone for good. Especially in the west valley.

True. But I will bet the farm (pun intended) that the 303 will bring in a lot more housing developments. I'm about a mile from the 303. It shaves off time to go to the airport, north PHX, etc.

It is only a matter of time before more retail is developed. But the retailers are patient and waiting for more housing starts. But the mega centers won't be happening. The lack of new mall development has little to do with the PHX saturation of retail or the slower growth of development. Rather, a massive shift in E-commerce. See The Rise of eCommerce and the Risk to Retail - eCommerceLift .

Marc Andreessen’s point of view is spot on (founder of Netscape, and initial seed money investor in Skype, Twitter, Foursquare, Pinterest, etc) He said the following: "Retail chains are a fundamentally implausible economic structure if there’s a viable alternative,” said Andreessen. “You combine the fixed cost of real estate with inventory, and it puts every retailer in a highly-leveraged position. Few can survive a decline of 20 to 30 percent in revenues. It just doesn’t make any sense for all this stuff to sit on shelves. There is fundamentally a better model.” IMHO, he forgot to mention that there is a sales tax savings. That one is a biggie on large purchases.

In short, retailers like Best Buy are struggling because they have become Amazon's showrooms (they go to BB to see it and buy it online). I expect to see more wholesale clubs with fast turns like Costco to become the new retailer of choice. But the mall concept is dead for good economic reasons. Also, the saturation of retail isn't as big of a problem in the West Valley partially because of snowbirds and tourists. It's why Las Vegas is ranked high in retail saturation; they have a lot of tourists.

[ScottsdaleMark]

My big concern with the 303 is that, while it really improves mobility for the far west valley, it doesn't do much to improve commutes to downtown Phoenix the 10 is still a parking lot regardless.

For anyone that lives in the 303 corridor, I'd love to hear your take on how you've noticed the 303 affecting the 10, if at all, or if you find that the 10 is still pretty much the same as it was before.

There are some nice neighborhoods in the far west / northwest valley to be certain and the 303 is a really nice new freeway. Anything's better than driving on Grand Avenue, that's all I know.

[kell490]

Marc Andreessen’s point of view is spot on (founder of Netscape, and initial seed money investor in Skype, Twitter, Foursquare, Pinterest, etc) He said the following: "Retail chains are a fundamentally implausible economic structure if there’s a viable alternative,” said Andreessen. “You combine the fixed cost of real estate with inventory, and it puts every retailer in a highly-leveraged position. Few can survive a decline of 20 to 30 percent in revenues. It just doesn’t make any sense for all this stuff to sit on shelves. There is fundamentally a better model.” IMHO, he forgot to mention that there is a sales tax savings. That one is a biggie on large purchases.

With the pressure from online retailers such as Amazon I wonder how that is going to affect these large bedroom community's being built brick and mortar retailers are having a tough time competing with online retailing all those homes for new people will have to find jobs somewhere. The freeways will become even more contested. The metro area sure reminds me of what Orange County and LA county were headed 35 - 40 years ago now. I know people who live there and 2-3 hours sitting in traffic on freeways is normal day for them.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

True. But I will bet the farm (pun intended) that the 303 will bring in a lot more housing developments. I'm about a mile from the 303. It shaves off time to go to the airport, north PHX, etc.

It is only a matter of time before more retail is developed. But the retailers are patient and waiting for more housing starts. But the mega centers won't be happening. The lack of new mall development has little to do with the PHX saturation of retail or the slower growth of development. Rather, a massive shift in E-commerce. See The Rise of eCommerce and the Risk to Retail - eCommerceLift .

Marc Andreessen’s point of view is spot on (founder of Netscape, and initial seed money investor in Skype, Twitter, Foursquare, Pinterest, etc) He said the following: "Retail chains are a fundamentally implausible economic structure if there’s a viable alternative,” said Andreessen. “You combine the fixed cost of real estate with inventory, and it puts every retailer in a highly-leveraged position. Few can survive a decline of 20 to 30 percent in revenues. It just doesn’t make any sense for all this stuff to sit on shelves. There is fundamentally a better model.” IMHO, he forgot to mention that there is a sales tax savings. That one is a biggie on large purchases.

In short, retailers like Best Buy are struggling because they have become Amazon's showrooms (they go to BB to see it and buy it online). I expect to see more wholesale clubs with fast turns like Costco to become the new retailer of choice. But the mall concept is dead for good economic reasons. Also, the saturation of retail isn't as big of a problem in the West Valley partially because of snowbirds and tourists. It's why Las Vegas is ranked high in retail saturation; they have a lot of tourists.

Except that brick and mortar is not dead. In fact, it is growing strongly. But it's not your father's brick and mortar The west valley, as the situs of growth in the coming decades, will be poised to take advantage of these new trends.


Brick-and-Mortar Retail Is Alive and Well

[JGMotorsport64]

I really hope Phoenix doesn't continue its sprawl into oblivion. That said, the best way to actually continue the growth would be to extend the Northern Pkwy to Grand and finish Grand into a freeway like it is around Grand/Camelback. Connecting more freeways to the I10 is a waste it's been at capacity for years.

[stevek64]

Originally Posted by JGMotorsport64

I really hope Phoenix doesn't continue its sprawl into oblivion. That said, the best way to actually continue the growth would be to extend the Northern Pkwy to Grand and finish Grand into a freeway like it is around Grand/Camelback. Connecting more freeways to the I10 is a waste it's been at capacity for years.

I don't think there's much hope in that. Oblivion will end when demand ends. As long as the population keeps growing in the coming decades in the valley which the odds greatly favor, it's outward and onward. Lots of fairly flat desert land out there to develop on. And lots of $ to be made on all levels along the way as a result of such development.