So Where's El Niño? (Phoenix, Winslow: construction, allergens, air quality)

[ScottsdaleMark]

Timely post VN as I was just wondering yesterday what the record for most consecutive days without rain in Phoenix was and the link addressed it.

To quote from your link, "Our longest stretch of dry weather occurred back in the winter of 2005-2006 where we went 160 days without seeing any rainfall at all." I did some more research and it turns out there are kind of two records, one for no rain at all, not even a trace, and one for no measurable rain. The no measurable rain streak seems to be, 160 days which began on December 30, 1971. The not-even-a-trace was 143 days starting Oct. 18, 2015. (LINK)

It was only two years ago in 2014 that we had the fifth-longest dry spell of 122 days.

If we get through March without any rain, well, April, May and June are typically very dry, and who knows when the monsoon will kick in, so there is the potential for quite a dry spell here that would rival that 160-day spell. What an awful thought, huh? It just seems like this region can't shake the high pressure ridging and that the jet streams / storm tracks are not pushing things close to our area.

I'm still rooting for some more late-season rains like last spring, but this has been such an odd El Nino as mentioned in my previous posts, so I don't know what to expect anymore. I guess next winter is supposed to be a La Nina year, which should mean cool and dry, but we shall see. Maybe that'll surprise us too and we'll end up getting wet.

[magnum0417]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

For those who think this warm, dry weather is actually normal for February & March, think again. No rain in February is highly unusual, especially during an El Niño season. The way things look, March could be very much the same (despite all the predictions). How rare is it to have no rain in both February & March? It only happened one other time in Phoenix history.

Rare? No rain in nearly 40 days | 12NEWS.com

It is killing my allergies. Either rain or be over 100 for a week to kill these allergens. Between allergies and stagnant pollution this sucks.

[ajonesaz]

Originally Posted by ScottsdaleMark

Timely post VN as I was just wondering yesterday what the record for most consecutive days without rain in Phoenix was and the link addressed it.

To quote from your link, "Our longest stretch of dry weather occurred back in the winter of 2005-2006 where we went 160 days without seeing any rainfall at all." I did some more research and it turns out there are kind of two records, one for no rain at all, not even a trace, and one for no measurable rain. The no measurable rain streak seems to be, 160 days which began on December 30, 1971. The not-even-a-trace was 143 days starting Oct. 18, 2015. (LINK)

It was only two years ago in 2014 that we had the fifth-longest dry spell of 122 days.

If we get through March without any rain, well, April, May and June are typically very dry, and who knows when the monsoon will kick in, so there is the potential for quite a dry spell here that would rival that 160-day spell. What an awful thought, huh? It just seems like this region can't shake the high pressure ridging and that the jet streams / storm tracks are not pushing things close to our area.

I'm still rooting for some more late-season rains like last spring, but this has been such an odd El Nino as mentioned in my previous posts, so I don't know what to expect anymore. I guess next winter is supposed to be a La Nina year, which should mean cool and dry, but we shall see. Maybe that'll surprise us too and we'll end up getting wet.

Remember last year we had a record hot February too, but we had a decently cool May and early June was decent to with some rain.

Forecast models show no rain for the rest of March with more record heat.

[ajonesaz]

Originally Posted by Mike Warner

Try reading the post I quoted "
Originally Posted by Eva Braun
I would also add "high-pressure system parked over this region keeping things nice and 20+ degrees warmer than normal" to that forecast.

The "forecast" as in up and coming. 60 is not the norm for this time of year. Where do you live?

Forecast=FUTURE.

Yes, highs in the 60's are a normal part of that time of year. The last two years have been exceptionally hot. The 100 year average high from February 1st to March 5th (when that was posted) ranges from 65-71 degrees. A majority of days we were 10-15 degrees above that. http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/mes...monyr=2/1/2016

[Ponderosa]

It could be worse. We have ample water supplies and there will be no restrictions here. Southern California did not get the predicted moisture either and they are going to be in a world of dry hurt this summer. The Colorado R watershed is below normal as well, but not by a lot and there is still a chance for some good storms to the north for several more weeks.

[DougStark]

As a gardener, all I can say is that I'm very disappointed we haven't gotten rain. I was very much looking forward to wildflowers and green lawns. Bummer. I hope Colorado gets plenty of snow, otherwise we're in a bad situation.

[Ponderosa]

It probably means little other than hope, but in one of the two prior years where we got no rain in February and March, we had some of the worst flooding in Phoenix history on June 22 of 1972 after about 5 inches of rain.

[magnum0417]

Are 95s enough to kill the allergens coming up or does it have to be the century mark to give us a reprieve ? Nothing imminent in the 15 day outlook remotely suggesting rain.

[Mike Warner]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

It could be worse. We have ample water supplies and there will be no restrictions here. Southern California did not get the predicted moisture either and they are going to be in a world of dry hurt this summer. The Colorado R watershed is below normal as well, but not by a lot and there is still a chance for some good storms to the north for several more weeks.

What were you expecting Cali to start building an arc?

Or do you just follow your own narrative over and over?

California's biggest reservoir, Shasta, rises to key milestone - San Jose Mercury News

[ScottsdaleMark]

It's pretty amazing considering just how awful Shasta looked a few months ago. They have really gotten pounded up there this winter and they needed it in the worst way.