SO CAL "Out Migration" heads to AZ (Particularly PHX) (Phoenix: home, neighborhood)
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We've all got to face up to it: population is growing all over America, particularly metropolitan areas. Traffic is getting worse all over America. You can talk about PHX, you can talk about L.A. or S.F. and probably San Diego, definitely Silicon Valley!
The difference is that those cities have adequate public transport systems as an alternative to driving. In Phoenix all we have is a disjointed bus system where transfers can take up to 30 mins and one line of light rail that crawls along at a snail's pace. I won't even mention the mentally ill and homeless population that seem to reside on the trains deterring middle class workers from ever riding it.
PHX and LA are alike in this respect. I am well familiar with the transit systems in both cities. In fact I would find it hard to find a closer match: both cities are equally dysfunctional in this area, and worse, I don't see any migration path for either city to acquire a functional transit system.
But... There is at least a hint at the situation. Both PHX and LA grew OUT not UP. Both cities shared the fact of plenty land farther out. Why build up when there is cheap land out? Today in LA it's like Lancaster and Palmdale. Today in PHX I see a lot of empty land between perhaps Mesa and Apache Junction. I remember when the road to Queen Creek was one lane each way. I totally regret I didn't buy a six-pack of houses in Queen Creek at $50K each!
But my point is that when you have adequate OUT there is no reason to build UP. But once you have businesses and residences occupying the land you can't just tear them down and dig a subway. Neither city can afford to buy the land necessary to launch a functional subway project.
The biggest problem with LA's existing transit system is that it's a "star" configuration for the most part. If you wanna go from the SFV to Santa Monica you might take a bus through Sepulveda pass, but if you wanna take the real transit system you park at Metrolink and take the train downtown LA then transfer to one headed to Santa Monica. You just turned a 10 mile car trip into a 50 mile train trip, and maybe quadrupled your commute time. (To be honest I don't know if Metrolink connects to Santa Monica. I'm just making the point that LA has a star shaped transit system and the only way to use it in most cases is to go downtown and change trains there, then do it again on your way home.)
What both cities really need for transit is like the circular freeway (but mass transit not cars) that goes around downtown PHX. I'm not that familiar with PHX freeways but I know you got it.
New York's subways and London's tubes are like that, subways going every which way, you wanna go from here to there you don't have to change trains at some distant point. Both systems have redundant routes--some longer some shorter--that will get you from where you are to where you wanna go.
The difference is that those cities have adequate public transport systems as an alternative to driving. In Phoenix all we have is a disjointed bus system where transfers can take up to 30 mins and one line of light rail that crawls along at a snail's pace. I won't even mention the mentally ill and homeless population that seem to reside on the trains deterring middle class workers from ever riding it.
You could honestly have been describing LA or OC. Our public transportation is a joke, hence the insane traffic. There is so much sprawl here that you could spend hours trying to cobble together trains and busses combined with a lot of walking, it is inefficient and thus not utilized by "most" middle class people. I've never heard anyone accuse it of being adequate. Especially when they have to live over an hour or more away just to find an area they can afford. Many people cross 2 or 3 county lines to get to work and back.
Phenomenon I think you are just seeing the same signs of population growth that everybody all over the nation are seeing. It's funny that for a moment I thought you were talking about a place in CA but then I realized you mean Salt River valley. A valley near me in SoCal has had IMO about 20% traffic increase in the last 4 years, probably about the same growth in traffic you've seen in your valley, right?
We've all got to face up to it: population is growing all over America, particularly metropolitan areas. Traffic is getting worse all over America. You can talk about PHX, you can talk about L.A. or S.F. and probably San Diego, definitely Silicon Valley!
More people means more traffic! It's like that line in the movie Soylent Green except we aren't eating people, we're competing with them for a spot on the road. They keep making more people, those people grow up and need more cars, then they put them on the freeway and the city streets and there's your increased traffic. The cause of the traffic is PEOPLE!
Don't delude yourself that Phoenix will be any different. I imagine now that the work on I-10 west of PHX is done that improved things, but the improvement won't last. The reason is that we are making people and cars faster than we are laying down pavement.
Actually I think most of the population increase is from immigration... but that's a different story.
The traffic situation will get worse in Phoenix. It's a mathematical certainty, fueled in no small way by the sprawl. This means ever longer commutes, which clogs the highways. Just a few but more and more people going across the whole valley and you'll get to traffic problems faster than you think.
The traffic situation will get worse in Phoenix. It's a mathematical certainty, fueled in no small way by the sprawl. This means ever longer commutes, which clogs the highways. Just a few but more and more people going across the whole valley and you'll get to traffic problems faster than you think.
We have the same problem in SoCal: people who are willing to do insane commutes, some of them up to two hours each way in their cars--on the freeways.
What may not be readily apparent is that if you get on the freeway and get off 30 minutes later you have done your share to tie up 30 minutes of freeway (however far that is depending on your speed). Compare that with a 2 hour commute and you have contributed 4x the traffic (assuming the same speed).
One nut case willing to commute 2 hours has effectively created as much traffic as 4 reasonable people doing 30 minute commutes!
I don't understand the mentality of somebody who is willing to spend 4 hours a day 5 days a week in their car. How much does that add up to over a career? Why don't they move closer to their job, or get a job closer to home? Throw in an 8 hour day and 1 hour lunch and that's 13 hours away from home. Sleep 8 hours a day and you have 5 hours left each work day to be with family and friends.
But there are people like that in SoCal. I've known them, worked with them. I've been astonished when I chat up a fellow employee and discover where they live. You live that far away??? Holy cow!
The problem in LA started in the 30s when auto companies bought up our streetcar system and tore it down, to intentionally create a market for a car in every house. (You can google this and find the article in Wikipedia.) In PHX I think it just grew like LA grew, sort of like cancer, both cities having plenty of outlying land so there was never any reason to build up instead of building out. It didn't seem like a problem at the time, but by the time it became a problem it was already too late to fix it.
One thing I haven't thought out yet, is PHX prepared to provide enough water for those new residents? SoCal doesn't have enough water and has things like lawn watering restrictions (3 days a week, different days depending on whether the last digit of your street address is even or odd). I've always thought PHX has done a great job with your typical PHX style yards, various types of gravel or other surface that doesn't use much water, then a few shrubs or cactus fed by drip irrigation. I have one beautiful house with a huge saguaro cactus in the front yard that looks magnificent! It really sets off the whole front yard, I really like that house--and if things get that bad in SoCal I'm thinking of moving into it when the last renter leaves; sell my SoCal house. Don't worry, I'm retired, I don't commute, I won't contribute to your freeway traffic. In fact I hate driving. (That may not be a coincidence considering my long history being caught in SoCal traffic.)
The traffic situation will get worse in Phoenix. It's a mathematical certainty, fueled in no small way by the sprawl. This means ever longer commutes, which clogs the highways. Just a few but more and more people going across the whole valley and you'll get to traffic problems faster than you think.
I heard that in some cities in CA, the HOV lane is reserved for three+ people during rush hour. They could do that here, that would clear up the lane for shuttle vans and transit busses. Plus you have to enforce the rule, 400$ fine like the sign says.
Not this is not terribly NEW information - but nice article about how the Phoenix area has once again become a hotbed for LA/Orange County transplants.
(Removed the LA-Times website URL, a very slow website that's full of ads and other suspicious activities)
On the topic, yes I noticed that with the tremendous increase of traffic on the roads in the Phoenix metro area. We are seeing California license plates more than ever before and I don't think they're visitors.
In SoCal I often see HOV drivers with no passengers, taking the chance they won't get caught because of a low level of enforcement. We don't have enough CHP patrols to make it high risk to drive single in the HOV lane. There's probably less than a 1% chance of getting caught as long as you do it only during high traffic situations. High traffic affects CHP's ability to patrol. You'll only get caught if a car moves out of a HOV lane and there was a CHP behind them.
I've successfully resisted the temptation. Not worth it because I can't afford to lose my good driver discount.
On the topic, yes I noticed that with the tremendous increase of traffic on the roads in the Phoenix metro area. We are seeing California license plates more than ever before and I don't think they're visitors.
If I decide to pull the trigger and move to PHX you'll see my CA plate only the first few weeks, until I get the chance to turn it in for an AZ plate. If I move I'd be more than happy to lose the CA stigma. As far as I can tell there is no CA or AZ accent!
Some of those CA plates could be tourists or people like me who have business travel to PHX.
BTW, off topic, but PHX has a very excellent library system, equally as good as LA, better than SD, better than Ventura. I have access to GPDL because of my AZ property owner status, and half my ebooks come from GPDL.
Could not have said it any better than this. As a recent transplant from So Cal I agree with 100 percent of what you said.
Cost of living is almost criminal. Paying well over 1K for a 1 bedroom apartment in the infamous Inland Empire where you have a minimum 1 hour commute going to work, and at least another hour coming home. This commute nearly triples on holiday weekends.
Want to take the kids someplace on the weekend? Good luck. IF you have any money left after paying the rent and several tanks of gas for your car, utilities etc....maybe take them to Disneyland. Oh wait, it's over $100 per person to go so scratch that idea. How about those famous beaches? The last thing you want to do is spend even MORE time sitting in traffic on your day off only this time you won't be suffering alone. Then you finally get to the beach. If you don't get there early enough (before sunrise) good luck finding a place to park.
Want to go see a Dodger or Lakers game? If you can't afford Disney then professional sports games are certainly out of your budget. Maybe you can get a second of third job. You can always sneak in a nap here and there right?
And just when things start to seem tolerable, something happens to an oil refinery. Could be a small fire, burned out light bulb in the office, whatever excuse they can come up with. Sudden increase in gas prices! Not just a few pennies over the course of a week or two. I've seen places go up nearly $1 per gallon in just hours. Guess you might need a 4th job.
It's the center of the universe for many but some of us opened our eyes and didn't see the rainbows and unicorns anymore. The only ones that can truly love LA and enjoy living there are the wealthy.
I'm middle class and have owned my home in So Cal for long enough that my property taxes are amazingly low. I take the Metro to work and on weekends to LA and beaches so don't have to put up with traffic. Guess I make it work here. Don't think I could have the same lifestyle in AZ.
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