Phoenix Real Estate Predictions 2018 (Mesa, Scottsdale: short sale, 2015, apartments)

[Burkmere]

Originally Posted by wit-nit

Predicting a real estate bubble collapse, maybe yes maybe no. But they do run in cycles.

2017 Economic Headwinds: Housing Bubbles Popping up and Just Plain Popping Everywhere | Zero Hedge

These Three Charts Prove Real Estate Will Collapse - The Sovereign Investor

Exactly.

[asufan]

Originally Posted by wit-nit

Predicting a real estate bubble collapse, maybe yes maybe no. But they do run in cycles.

2017 Economic Headwinds: Housing Bubbles Popping up and Just Plain Popping Everywhere | Zero Hedge

These Three Charts Prove Real Estate Will Collapse - The Sovereign Investor

Any housing bubble would be market based, not in the entire country as a whole as some markets may be more overvalued than others and some may be undervalued. To predict a 40% housing collapse nation wide is irresponsible. The author of the Sovereign investor (JL Yastine) article has been called on the carpet before for horrible predictions and is an expert in nothing.

Recently, JL Yastine of "The Sovereign Investor" wrote two articles which have been accompanied by a flurry of emails suggesting that there will be an 80% stock market crash in 2016. To quote his reasoning from both articles:
The prophetic economist Andrew Smithers warns, “U.S. stocks are now about 80% overvalued.”

That website would have been better off offering many on this forum to write the article. It's nothing more than click bait.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidma.../#7fe52efa1dc2

[asufan]

Here's an article from 2014 that says housing prices are overvalued. This is August 2017 for those keeping score at home.

https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014...-peak-in-2016/

[ajonesaz]

Originally Posted by asufan

Any housing bubble would be market based, not in the entire country as a whole as some markets may be more overvalued than others and some may be undervalued.

That is what I have read. A lot of experts agree California and Denver will have real estate bubble pops by 2019.

I think Phoenix will start to level off pretty soon, but prices seem stable. There are still a lot of investors buying homes in the valley. Once investors start backing away, be worried

[Flavia84]

Originally Posted by ajonesaz

That is what I have read. A lot of experts agree California and Denver will have real estate bubble pops by 2019.

I think Phoenix will start to level off pretty soon, but prices seem stable. There are still a lot of investors buying homes in the valley. Once investors start backing away, be worried

They already are.

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by Flavia84

They already are.

Investors aren't buying as much (currently) because they've already affected the market with their buying.. The sub $200k market is a knife-fight for buyers, unless you like mobiles or condos.
Certain zip codes literally have nothing at all available that will pass financing standards.

Bumping things up to $300k increases selection (in Phoenix) quite a bit, but buying at that level requires either some decent savings or income.

I don't see much of a fall ahead, because the metric that matters is rent vs buy & Rents for single-family homes have cranked up substantially over the past few years (due to those corporate investors)..

During the last bubble, rent was significantly cheaper than buying - that's not what we have now at all. There aren't any "cheap seats" to retreat to, so if you're good at math & you plan to stay here - you really have to buy. You can't walk away from your mortgage & rent an equivalent house for less like you could easily do during the last bubble.

[Flavia84]

My concern is the quality of the jobs have been created, as well as the loosening of the lending standards which IS happening. Also, the low to zero downpayment loans are not exactly enticing confidence. If the economy goes south it could be a very bad combo. Except this time around the interest rates are already so low that it will be harder to remedy the situation.

[locolife]

Originally Posted by Burkmere

Well, historically at least in my 63 years there's always been measurable declines. I'm not saying when but there xalways has been but I suppose "this time" it could be different. It could start next year or it could start in a few years. Who knows? But there will be another major decline unless again this time it's different. I remember well the last one and although in retrospect of course people now pretend like they called it or know why it happened etc. , but I remember at the time virtually no one was predicting a 40% decline or so in prices. Virtually no one picked the 87 flash crash in stock prices and I don't recall reading any history about anyone predicting the stock market crash of about century ago.

I can't say with relative certainty though there probably will not be a 40% decline within the next week or so.

It's interesting that you say there's always a decline, I'm only in my early 30's so my experience is limited compared to yours but I recall being told countless times in the 2006 recession that nothing of this magnitude had ever been seen. Perhaps in the great recession but never in more modern economic times. Do you recall seeing 50-60% dips in home values in your 63 years? I'd agree that economic growth is cyclical and a slow down will surely happen but what shocked a lot of us about '06 was the level of impact here.

Just curious, I appreciate hearing from people with more life experience than I.

[locolife]

Originally Posted by ajonesaz

That is what I have read. A lot of experts agree California and Denver will have real estate bubble pops by 2019.

I think Phoenix will start to level off pretty soon, but prices seem stable. There are still a lot of investors buying homes in the valley. Once investors start backing away, be worried

Actually, I don't see investors backing away as a bad sign at all. Look at what happened after the recovery, investors scooped in to pickup a bunch of extremely low value properties knowing many permanent residents had short sales and would not be able to repurchase anytime soon. So they saw value in buying low and a high demand for rentals. Now things are pretty level, there's no obvious massive value to be gained in the short term, no oversupply appears to be happening, it's pretty steady state which isn't very enticing for investors.

[locolife]

Originally Posted by Flavia84

My concern is the quality of the jobs have been created, as well as the loosening of the lending standards which IS happening. Also, the low to zero downpayment loans are not exactly enticing confidence. If the economy goes south it could be a very bad combo. Except this time around the interest rates are already so low that it will be harder to remedy the situation.

I have multiple coworkers looking to purchase first time homes right now and none of them have found a path to buy with zero down payment. Are you seeing this with home builders who are offering the incentive on new builds? That's probably different financing than a traditional sale.