Will Gen X'rs Move To Sun City? (Tucson, Sun City West: rent, homes)

[grmi66]

Originally Posted by RoadLessTraveled2015

I wish they'd let a childless gen Xer not yet 55 buy. I'd have no qualms about moving to Sun City. I guess that's not possible? The HOA would never make that kind of exception?

My brother got into a 55+ community when he was 45 down here in Tucson. It certainly helped that he's a county sheriffs deputy and they are allowed to drive their vehicles home after work and park them in the driveway.

[Hschlick84]

Will the 55+ communities fair well in 20 years once the older Millennials born in 1981 and younger hit retirement age? There's quite a few of them that have childless families.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Hschlick84

Will the 55+ communities fair well in 20 years once the older Millennials born in 1981 and younger hit retirement age? There's quite a few of them that have childless families.

In fairness, the question could be asked on all kinds of housing topics. At the end of the day, I predict they will all be sold. The question remains is one fold: how much. Because price are a driving factor when it comes to retirement. It's not like Phoenix (often) is someones 1st choice. So if Millennials want walkability and yet they can buy a SC home for 1/4th the price 9as an example), I bet you will see people taking the trade-offs. Maybe they will be "40+ communities". Poof! Problem solved.

In short, a whole lot of things could happen in 20 years. I'll have one foot in the ground by then. So I will care 1/2 as much. lol

[iStark]

In many of the currently building communities in the Phoenix area you can buy and occupy new homes at 45 resale at 55.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by grmi66

By definition they are still Baby Boomers. I'm almost 53 and my views on the world are very different than most of my Baby Boomer relatives and friends that are in their late 50's.

To define my original question, will Gen X'rs which by most definitions are people born between 1965 and 1980 want to move to any age restricted community? The oldest Gen X'r can start buying into 55+ communities next year. From what I've seen I don't think they will do so, but want to make sure I'm not living in a bubble and get the whole picture. Which then begs the question, who will be buying up the houses in any of the age restricted communities in Arizona?

As someone almost there (52), this is what I've observed:

- Most of us have had kids older than previous generations (for example, mine are 18 and 16). So we may still be dealing with kids in college or even kids at home or below at 55.

- I joke this and maybe this is just a function of getting older myself, but I honestly sometimes think we the

"best/youngest looking middle aged group in human history". Again, probably an unconscious bias, but I think there are legit reasons such as less smoking and somewhat healthier habits amongst other things. I say this because I think more than past generations we will think being the youngest members of a "senior" community will still make us feel like we are "living with old people"

- As someone else noted, we are very different from the Boomers and probably won't start moving to these communities not only until our kids are on their own, but until we are a higher share of the people who would be living in these places. I could see us starting to live in these places when we are closer to 65. I barely feel "older" now than I did 20 or 30 years ago and most people my age I know feel the same way.

[phetaroi]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

That's what I was thinking: Sun City has a reputation of being boring, and it's not necessarily because it's age restricted ... it's because of the lack of eateries, entertainment, and most everything shuts down before 9 or 10 PM. I see a continuing demand for retirees to want to live in age restricted communities like this, but the communities need to become more modernized to fit the needs of the people. Today's seniors are different than the ones who lived in Sun City 50 or 60 years ago when it was new. They don't all want to spend their time playing Bingo or Shuffleboard, and then turning in by 9 PM.

I happen to have recently moved to Sun City West, and personally don't like what I see of Sun City. But lack of eateries, entertainment, and shopping? It's about 5 miles to Arrowhead Mall -- which is classed as a "super-regional shopping mall" with its 14 movie-theater movie-plex. In the same neighborhood -- without going past Arrowhead Mall on Bell Road -- are over 40 restaurants...and a Harkins multiplex with 18 more screens.

[jnojr]

Originally Posted by RoadLessTraveled2015

I wish they'd let a childless gen Xer not yet 55 buy.

Why would your desire to live there outweigh their desire to shape their own community? Most of those folks moved there because, for whatever reason, they want to be around other folks 55 and over.

And to forestall the inevitable "What if they wanted to exclude Jews/blacks/etc?"... they aren't.

[phetaroi]

Originally Posted by jnojr

Why would your desire to live there outweigh their desire to shape their own community? Most of those folks moved there because, for whatever reason, they want to be around other folks 55 and over.

And to forestall the inevitable "What if they wanted to exclude Jews/blacks/etc?"... they aren't.

Jeepers. All he said was that he "wished". You're reading an awfully lot into that.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

This is an interesting thread allowing readers to glimpse into what other people are contemplating.

Ditto to your post. I cannot agree with you more about being your own boss and the flexibility of feeling like you are semi-retired. If I can do what I am doing for another 15 years (then around age 70), why not?

Remember, 55+ owners that are target buyers in these communities often want to move into a physically active 55+ facility. With the productivity enhancements of the internet and cell phones, a lot of people feel semi-retired as you are no longer are chained to an office desk. I could not think of a worse way to retire than to sit around playing bingo or watching an Elvis impersonator. So those neighborhoods are out. To each their own.

The active newer 55+ are spendy in comparison. There will be a separation of 55+ neighborhoods that include people who have money that end up in a Vistancia/Pebble Creek like neighborhoods versus the older Sun City, Sun City West neighborhoods. They will sell. The older hoods will fill in mostly based off of budget. Therefore the demographics are going to change.

Like myself, gen Xers are also pushing out retiring not because they have less $$'s than boomers at the same stage in life. r=Rather, the explosion in the cost of healthcare. For many, the medical finish line is Medicare (plus supplemental plans). If early retirees pay their premiums and deductibles, it's extremely easy to hit $20K for a couple at age 55 simply with a procedure or two (in combo with a dentist visits). And that's at age 50. The premium will only go UP based off of age alone PLUS the hyper cost of medical care inflation. Combine that with the push to have older people pay more in premiums and you are seeing a trend. Simply put, people are nervous about quitting and burning their principal for an unknown amount of years. Unknown==wait to retire. Never mind Medicare might be pushed out beyond 70 as the country cannot afford it. Make no mistake, folks with "screw-you" money are nervous they don't have enough to fully unplug because they would be burning their savings. So they error on being overly conservative and they continue to work. I've had many conversations with customers who are doing extremely well and are doing what we are doing for the very reason I described; healthcare costs.

Combine that ^^ with a 55 year old not sure what to expect with Social Security $$ outlay. In a personal example, if we don't add another dollar into SSN, we will get $68K after tax (modeled in today's $$'s). I need another $32K to hit a $100K after tax dollars. Therefore I could have retired several years ago (burning principal and waiting for SSN to kick in) but who says Social Security will be the way it is today? Uncertainty has people locked in place. So the people who are unplugging are in a category like the CA city workers getting their pensions.

I don't think the Medicare age is going to go up for at least the first group of Gen X (those born before 1970, maybe even 1975). I think we're too close to the "finish line" for them to "move the goalposts" (if I am not mistaken, currently the age is 67 for those born at or after 1960). But I do agree with you that eventually, if not for the younger half of Gen X definitely for the Millenials the Medicare age will be raised to 70.

[jd433]

Adult communities may likely need to be repurposed as housing for all ages in order to survive. Especially the original portions of Sun City which are getting very old.