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View Poll Results: Is a possible housing value correction coming to Phoenix
Yes there will be a correction 50 42.37%
No prices will always go up in Phoenix forever. 18 15.25%
I hope they go down because I want to buy a house 18 15.25%
There will be a correction eventually but it will be "A SOFT LANDING"-ALAN GREENSPAN 32 27.12%
Voters: 118. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 12-08-2019, 06:28 AM
 
Location: Houston, Tx
1,507 posts, read 3,412,165 times
Reputation: 1527

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I bought several homes from 2000-2006 surprise was 2005.

 
Old 12-08-2019, 06:31 AM
 
9,741 posts, read 11,163,289 times
Reputation: 8482
For those who are really interested, here is a very balanced article. It explains why a crash is GOING to happen and why is isn't going to happen. As you see, it's currently as clear as mud. https://www.thebalance.com/is-the-re...-crash-4153139
 
Old 12-08-2019, 06:45 AM
 
9,741 posts, read 11,163,289 times
Reputation: 8482
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd433 View Post
I bought several homes from 2000-2006 surprise was 2005.
I guess I'm confused because your 2007 post, you asked about Surprise. As if it was unknown to you. You won't see me asking questions about Surprise now because I bought in 2011 which was the actual bottom.

Anyways, can we at least agree that you are not in a position to predict what is going to happen in the PHX RE market?

Were you a RE agent back in the day? A lot of RE folks buried themselves as they got caught up in the flipping era. I don't wish that era on my worst enemy. No worries, our kids and grandkids bailed out everyone.
 
Old 12-08-2019, 06:49 AM
 
Location: Houston, Tx
1,507 posts, read 3,412,165 times
Reputation: 1527
Default i bought several homes 2001-2006

I moved to Texas in 2008 because it was the only place in the country where you could buy a house that wouldn't crash over the next 3 years it was for safety I was in Arizona looking on the computer and wondering where to move and still buy a house. prices in texas were half of what they were in phoenix and the incomes were higher. so i started buying in texas. i ended up moving into ahouse that i bought as a rental in houston. if i had stayed in phoenix it likely would not have gone well
 
Old 12-08-2019, 06:53 AM
 
Location: Phoenix
30,369 posts, read 19,156,062 times
Reputation: 26255
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd433 View Post
Oh, human nature. Here we go again. I want to issue a note of caution to anyone who is thinking about buying g a house In the Phoenix area right now.
I know there will be people who are going to disagree just like they did when I told them in 2007. They will say that im crazy and "where is your proof"? I went through this the last time. As well as in 1992 and 1986 when overspeculation in the outlying areas of Phoenix led to another crash.
If you are fairly new or are not familiar with the history of housing in the Phoenix market then be advised.
Right now the Phoenix housing prices are the highest they have ever been. That is great news for anyone who bought their home 5 to 8 years ago. It is not good news for anyone who is buying today.
13 years ago home prices in Phoenix were almost as high as they are now. But then the home values dropped dramatically. IT COULD HAPPEN AGAIN!!! On a smaller scale but it can and more likely WILL happen again.
I understand that the last housing crash was a rare event and will not happen again. But even without that Phoenix may experience another correction especially if a recession comes along. It will be provoked by a domino effect originating in California.
You see home prices in Phoenix have a history of being cyclical. That means that they go up and down in value. Well if right now prices are up to the highest point ever then what can we expect to happen next?
Prices are only slightly higher than 2007 while average incomes are up sharply and interest rates are down so prices could conceivably go much higher. Yes, there will be a correction when conditions align to cause it but right now, I don't think we're very close. Maybe after prices have risen another 50%.

The income to price ratio in Phoenix is much better than anywhere out west.
 
Old 12-08-2019, 06:59 AM
 
9,741 posts, read 11,163,289 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler View Post
Prices are only slightly higher than 2007 while average incomes are up sharply and interest rates are down so prices could conceivably go much higher. Yes, there will be a correction when conditions align to cause it but right now, I don't think we're very close. Maybe after prices have risen another 50%.

The income to price ratio in Phoenix is much better than anywhere out west.
In our specific neighborhood in Surprise, I'm up around $200K since the bottom of 2011. In order to hit 2006 levels, our house has to appreciate another $120K. New builds have held down the market in the outer burbs. In hindsight, I should have bought in Scottsdale. But I really should have bought Amazon or Tesla. lol Could have would have should have.
 
Old 12-08-2019, 07:01 AM
 
Location: Houston, Tx
1,507 posts, read 3,412,165 times
Reputation: 1527
Default Deposit in 2007 cause I was already panicking and morning with the do next

When I was posting here in 2007 I was scrambling I was panicked and I was searching for answers I knew the market was going to crash and also I wouldn't have any work so I was searching for any answers. i ultimately moved to texas. i should have gone to austin but i didnt know texas well enough.

Last edited by jd433; 12-08-2019 at 07:03 AM.. Reason: Misspelling
 
Old 12-08-2019, 07:03 AM
 
Location: Phoenix
30,369 posts, read 19,156,062 times
Reputation: 26255
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd433 View Post
I moved to Texas in 2008 because it was the only place in the country where you could buy a house that wouldn't crash over the next 3 years it was for safety I was in Arizona looking on the computer and wondering where to move and still buy a house. prices in texas were half of what they were in phoenix and the incomes were higher. so i started buying in texas. i ended up moving into ahouse that i bought as a rental in houston. if i had stayed in phoenix it likely would not have gone well
I lived for years in Houston metro and I looked at the cost of coming back there and when you factor in huge property taxes and very high property insurance as well as the huge risk of flood and hurricanes, I couldn't make a case to come back there.
 
Old 12-08-2019, 07:07 AM
 
9,741 posts, read 11,163,289 times
Reputation: 8482
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd433 View Post
When I was posting here in 2007 I was scrambling I was panicked and I was searching for answers I knew the market was going to crash and also I wouldn't have any work so I was searching for any answers. i ultimately moved to texas. i should have gone to austin but i didnt know texas well enough.
I often think the same thing. Austin would have been a great spot to buy in 2011. I haven't looked but it probably still is. Especially if I lived on one of the large reservoirs. A great spot to be year round!

I was only studying FL and AZ. TX should have been on the radar but it wasn't.
 
Old 12-08-2019, 07:08 AM
 
Location: Phoenix
30,369 posts, read 19,156,062 times
Reputation: 26255
Quote:
Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised View Post
In our specific neighborhood in Surprise, I'm up around $200K since the bottom of 2011. In order to hit 2006 levels, our house has to appreciate another $120K. New builds have held down the market in the outer burbs. In hindsight, I should have bought in Scottsdale. But I really should have bought Amazon or Tesla. lol Could have would have should have.
I bought 2 houses in Maricopa in 2011 for investment and then another in 2013 for us to winter in. My best friend told me to buy in Scottsdale (where he lives) but I thought that Scottsdale hadn't fallen as much and opted not to...now I wish I had bought at least the house for myself in Scottsdale.

I would say that the 2 rentals I bought in 2011 have a better ROI (counting rent and increase in value) than my stock average but not by that much.
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