Phoenix Real Estate, Coronavirus and Stock Market Drop (2013, loan)

[yukon]

Originally Posted by EscapingTheBurbs

I bet that changes real quick. I was shocked at how quickly things changed here in California.

It did change. I think 6 school districts today decided to extend their spring break (starts next week) for few weeks. That's still a low number of districts though. I think Ducey is downplaying it for equal parts a) no need to create panic and b) doesn't want to cause any events to cancel that contribute to the state's revenue coffers. I suspect the latter has more bearing on his decisions than the first part.

[Solere]

Hopefully a drop in real estate prices will also bring about a drop in overpriced contractor rates for home repairs.

I doubt you will begin to see real estate agents flexible on commissions. Didn't happen during the last economic downturn.

[jnojr]

FWIW, I asked my mortgage guy about a refi on Tuesday. 3.625% with no points for a 30 year. I talked it over with my wife (we were also considering a shorter term) and called him back. Now, that same rate cost almost 2 points. The markets are even more prone to panic than the TP-hoarders... but the markets also have the over-eager hand of government constantly stirring the pot as well. Waiting for a bailout, anticipating a monetary injection, fear that an injection might not happen, come too soon/late, not be the "right" amount... next week, something equally bizarre will happen, and we'll see what we see then.

[Bondurant]

Originally Posted by jnojr

FWIW, I asked my mortgage guy about a refi on Tuesday. 3.625% with no points for a 30 year. I talked it over with my wife (we were also considering a shorter term) and called him back. Now, that same rate cost almost 2 points. The markets are even more prone to panic than the TP-hoarders... but the markets also have the over-eager hand of government constantly stirring the pot as well. Waiting for a bailout, anticipating a monetary injection, fear that an injection might not happen, come too soon/late, not be the "right" amount... next week, something equally bizarre will happen, and we'll see what we see then.

Market panic is on. Movement into STR funds is massive. Far too many of these folks will forget and not adjust in the future. I'd guarantee a number of these folks are TP hoarders.

[Woody01]

But here's the big question.......IF/WHEN the virus gets under control.....say in a month or so....., will the economy/markets a) bounce back to levels before the virus...? OR
b) possibly rise even higher due to human nature..? OR
c) will they stay subdued because we are entering a true recession...?

This corona virus is an aberration and we don't know what will happen until it happens IMHO...

[asufan]

Originally Posted by Woody01

But here's the big question.......IF/WHEN the virus gets under control.....say in a month or so....., will the economy/markets a) bounce back to levels before the virus...? OR
b) possibly rise even higher due to human nature..? OR
c) will they stay subdued because we are entering a true recession...?

This corona virus is an aberration and we don't know what will happen until it happens IMHO...

I think it would continue to be volatile for awhile as companies report earnings and don't meet projections. Huge swings up and down sorta like now but I think 2021 could be a good year if things get taken care of by the end of Summer.

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by Woody01

But here's the big question.......IF/WHEN the virus gets under control.....say in a month or so....., will the economy/markets:
a) bounce back to levels before the virus...? OR
b) possibly rise even higher due to human nature..? OR
c) will they stay subdued because we are entering a true recession...?

This corona virus is an aberration and we don't know what will happen until it happens IMHO...

Typically, the market falls quickly, as we just saw, but can take years to recover as confidence is slow to return. IMO 2008 is the model for what we're now seeing. Unneeded tax cuts are the fuel for bubbles in the stock and housing markets; we saw this in the 1920s, the 1980s, the 2000s and now in the 2020s. The crashes came in 1929, 1987, 2008, and 2020. Seems we never learn, it's always Groundhog Day in America. As we used to say in my Army office: BOHICA (Bend Over Here It Comes Again).

[Woody01]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

Typically, the market falls quickly, as we just saw, but can take years to recover as confidence is slow to return. IMO 2008 is the model for what we're now seeing.

I disagree....the crash in 2008 was caused primarily by the housing market, with everybody and their brother being given loans they had no business getting...
There is absolutely no resemblance between this virus causing the crash and that......

[asufan]

I worry about the small businesses in the area. Things were humming along nicely, lots of restaurants doing well, etc. I'm doing my part by still patronizing the places, hopefully others do as well.

[yukon]

Don't forget, the initial huge drop was due to the pissing match between the Saudis and Russia, and Saudi Arabia's decision to drop production limits and ramp up production, thus glutting the market and lowering the prices. The market doesn't exist on just one topic or one stock, anything can affect it. The smart investor pays attention to the news and buys/sells accordingly.