Phoenix Real Estate, Coronavirus and Stock Market Drop (Tempe, Oro Valley: for sale, rental)

[Jiff]

I'm guessing that the 55+ communities are less likely to have house prices drop since most owners and buyers don't depend on income from a job.

[wase4711]

Originally Posted by asufan

I worry about the small businesses in the area. Things were humming along nicely, lots of restaurants doing well, etc. I'm doing my part by still patronizing the places, hopefully others do as well.

This is the perfect attitude; the same one we are adopting..

I'm avoiding large gatherings of people for the next 2 weeks or so, and, now I use the wipes at Fry's to wipe off my shopping cart handle; otherwise, NOTHING has changed for us, and there is NO WAY I will EVER fall for paranoia inducing non sense,(dumped Face Krap and Tweeter years Ago), and, since my IQ is over 42, I dont need to hoard TP/Lysol/Wipes/ANYTHING!

Continue to live your life normally, otherwise you will fall prey to CDS..
(Covid derangement Syndrome)

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by Woody01

I disagree....the crash in 2008 was caused primarily by the housing market, with everybody and their brother being given loans they had no business getting...
There is absolutely no resemblance between this virus causing the crash and that......

I see a family resemblance where tax cuts fueled housing and stock bubbles. Both were ripe for a fall and both fell dramatically. When things are so over-priced then all it takes is one anomaly (black swan) or stiff breeze to knock over a house of cards. The "event" can be anything; in this case a virus that ends up locking down economic activity and an oil price shock on the downside that will bankrupt the already shaky frackers which is a goal of both Putin and our Saudi "friends." We are in a perfect storm: bubbles, virus, and destabilizing oil prices. A perfect shat storm if you will.

[Woody01]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

I see a family resemblance where tax cuts fueled housing and stock bubbles. Both were ripe for a fall and both fell dramatically. When things are so over-priced then all it takes is one anomaly (black swan) or stiff breeze to knock over a house of cards. The "event" can be anything; in this case a virus that ends up locking down economic activity and an oil price shock on the downside that will bankrupt the already shaky frackers which is a goal of both Putin and our Saudi "friends." We are in a perfect storm: bubbles, virus, and destabilizing oil prices. A perfect shat storm if you will.

Good points......Fair enough...!

[thinkalot]

Originally Posted by Happs

Hopefully a drop in real estate prices will also bring about a drop in overpriced contractor rates for home repairs.

How many times are you going to complain about this?

You will not get a contractor for $15 when McDonalds pays $12.

[Solere]

Originally Posted by thinkalot

How many times are you going to complain about this?

You will not get a contractor for $15 when McDonalds pays $12.

Economic downturns usually result in a correction (downturn) in labor rates.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by wase4711

This is the perfect attitude; the same one we are adopting..

I'm avoiding large gatherings of people for the next 2 weeks or so, and, now I use the wipes at Fry's to wipe off my shopping cart handle; otherwise, NOTHING has changed for us, and there is NO WAY I will EVER fall for paranoia inducing non sense,(dumped Face Krap and Tweeter years Ago), and, since my IQ is over 42, I dont need to hoard TP/Lysol/Wipes/ANYTHING!

Continue to live your life normally, otherwise you will fall prey to CDS..
(Covid derangement Syndrome)

Agree 100%. These morons who wipe out all the wipes from store shelves are accomplishing absolutely nothing except hoarding. The lack of basic, essential items as a result of all this hoarding is creating a major hassle for everybody else who isn't panicking. Avoiding crowds is a wise move, but being a Chicken Little and completely hiding from the world isn't solving anything. The hysteria over this virus is out of control.

[wase4711]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

The hysteria over this virus is out of control.

Yep, and the best way to avoid it is to stop reading/watching the news, and avoid Social Media as much as you can..
If you're healthy, and under the age of 70, just live your life, with some extra, sensible precautions..

Or, become another "Bubble Boy"..its all up to each of us..

[IowaViking]

Originally Posted by Jiff

I'm guessing that the 55+ communities are less likely to have house prices drop since most owners and buyers don't depend on income from a job.

I was talking with a realtor who was very familiar with the 55+ scene from the 2008 era. He said that the market did not bottom until several years later, and then was slow to return.

I think that there are several forces at play-

It has been a seller's market in 55+ for awhile. The bull market has created a number of new retirees with coins in their pockets.

This recent bust in the market will cause a number of folks who were going to retire to rethink their plans. A number of purchases will be put on hold for a year or more.

The conveyor belt of life continues to run, and we will continue to see 55+ homes come on the market from folks that have expired or move to other accommodations. If the virus accelerates the conveyor belt, we could see more disruption.

If- the market does not recover quickly && If- the conveyor belt accelerates, we could see a buyers market and a collapse of home values. It may take a year or two to get there. I have seen some flipper houses get marked down dramatically just this last couple days. Some of those folks are spooked at carrying the note on a house that they were sure was going to be a quick profitable flip.

[Mike from back east]

I was in COLO SPGS when the 2008 bubbles burst. I recall visiting this area in 2013 for spring training baseball and was nicely surprised at how affordable the homes were, but they've risen in value a lot in the seven years since that visit. In those same 7 years the prices in the Denver area have gone up hugely to where it's almost as pricey as the west coast.

I'm in a 55+ area (Trilogy at Vistancia) and my realtor pals up here bemoan the "lack" of listings even though I can find about 60 homes in here listed on zillow and about another 30 across the street in "The Villages" which is a non-gated area with no age restrictions. Add another dozen or so in Blackstone, the gated upper-brackets area of Vistancia, and all told there's about a hundred listings up here. Y'all come.

As an early boomer born in 1948 (it was a dark and stormy night ..... so the tale goes...) I'm 72 with lots of boomers soon to follow me to such places as this. Boomers are 1946-1964 which makes the youngest of them about 56 years of age. Shea is building as fast as they can and last year I recall stats that there were over 700 communities, of various sizes, in the greater Phoenix metro area that were building homes. Again, as last year, one constraint is the availability of labor in the building trades.

The current economic mess is partly due to the unneeded tax cuts in 2017 that put $1T into play and a lot of that money went into the stock market and/or the housing market which IMO caused bubbles in both. The stock market just came crashing down around us as it did in 1929, 1987 and 2008, as all were preceded by unneeded tax cuts. The housing market may well come crashing down too, hopefully not. I've seen this game play out before with tax cuts in the early years of the Reagan and G.W.Bush administrations with follow-on crashes as the bubbles burst. Bubbles are okay for the Lawrence Welk show and kiddies in the park, but.... getting tired of such financial insanity in tax policy, especially while our infrastructure rots beneath our feet and we're not prepared for this pandemic. Woe is us.